McCain could carry Long Island, NY

[sg0508]

It would be the first time since 1992 in which either Nassau or Suffolk county NY voted Red rather than blue.  Traditionally, moderate republicans and white collar voters would carry the island for the republicans but local corruption and influx of minorities have hurt the GOP here over the past 10 yrs, along with the conservative movement of the party.

Bush came close to winning Suffolk in 04.  The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama leading 55-42%, still well out in front and in no peril of losing the state, but he may win only the boroughs, Albany, and a few counties upstate, similar to maps of 1988 and 1976.

Interesting also to note that McCain has the support right now of 20% of NY's democrats, but he loses 20% of republicans to Obama.  Had he held onto more republicans, perhaps he would have a chance at actually making my state competitive again.

[Senator Sbane]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

[Ronnie]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

Well, the last Rasmussen poll shows Obama up by 13 in NY.  That means McCain at least carries Suffolk.

McCain is definitely going to win NY-1, though.

[sg0508]

That's not true at all.  Nassau was 52-46% Kerry in 04 and Suffolk was 49-48% Kerry.  Bush still lost the state 58-40%. 

Traditionally, we could lose here by 4-5 pts because moderate republicans used to carry the island and we would nearly sweep upstate outside of Albany. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

He could, I suppose: it seems like the type of area that would have a lot of PUMAs, where racial tension would run higher than in many other places, and where a moderate Republican like the 2000 version of John McCain might play well. Heck, Sarah Palin might even play well there if people don't find out that she's pro-life and anti-gay. But what would be the point? Obama's still going to win NY anyway.

[Verily]

Long Island? No way. Suffolk is possible. (I don't expect it, but it's possible.) But LI as a whole is not happening.

[Dan the Roman]

I'm not sure LI and Suffolk is the part of the state where Obama is most in trouble.

[sg0508]

In order to carry the state, the GOP candidate must win 55-60% on the Island, 2/3 upstate and garnish at least 1/3 in the boroughs.  It's really tough to do.  Democrats outnumber Republicans 46-27% here.

Reagan won almost 2/3 of the island, 2/3 upstate and 1/3 of the boroughs and still only won by 8 pts in 84.  

[Verily]

In order to carry the state, the GOP candidate must win 55-60% on the Island, 2/3 upstate and garnish at least 1/3 in the boroughs.  It's really tough to do.  Democrats outnumber Republicans 46-27% here.

Reagan won almost 2/3 of the island, 2/3 upstate and 1/3 of the boroughs and still only won by 8 pts in 84.  

But that's putting 1980s political allegiances on modern New York. It's simply not the case that Republicans can win 55-60% on Long Island any more, or 1/3 anywhere in NYC outside of Staten Island (where 55-60% would not be unrealistic in a strong showing). Some of that might just reflect that Republicans can't win in NY any more, but the Republicans' key strategy in NY these days is exploiting the upstate-NYC split and thereby trying to eat into Democratic margins in Buffalo, Syracuse, Albany, etc. I'm not sure that strategy can win, but Long Island is not somewhere the Republicans have strength any more (and it's a very recent collapse).

[Senator Sbane]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

Well, the last Rasmussen poll shows Obama up by 13 in NY.  That means McCain at least carries Suffolk.

McCain is definitely going to win NY-1, though.

Yeah if Mccain loses by only 13 points in NY then he will definitely carry suffolk but I doubt he will win Nassau. Of course if he is only losing NY by 13 he has already won the election by at least 5 points. I don't think Obama's weakness is going to be on long island though. I expect him to lose more votes in the blue collar areas, perhaps even in the boroughs. 

[sg0508]

Well, the big problem is that now, democrats are winning >80% in the boroughs, which makes it near impossible to win here anymore.  Pataki did well here three times in 94, 98 and 02 because of the independent Tom Golisano and because gov. races are far less partisan, but I don't see any republican, including another "RINO" getting it done here.

The same thing goes for PA and why we really struggle to win there.  We used to get 1/3 of the Philly vote and thus, we didn't have to win big inland, but now, we can't even get 20% there.  Even when Arlen Spector survived in 04 (53-42%), he still did very poorly in Philly, getting just 29%.

[sg0508]

sbane..you have to remember though, because he's seen as more a moderate, he's going to attract democrats and independents.  Thus, he's going to outperform Bush in the northeast, even though he may not win a single state up here. 

It wouldn't surprise me if he broke 40% in MA and RI either as the polls there have been comfortable for Obama of course, but closer than the norm.  The same goes for NY.  It's also the same reason why you see Obama polling tighter than normal in NC, IN and MS (for a while). 

[Senator Sbane]

sbane..you have to remember though, because he's seen as more a moderate, he's going to attract democrats and independents.  Thus, he's going to outperform Bush in the northeast, even though he may not win a single state up here. 

It wouldn't surprise me if he broke 40% in MA and RI either as the polls there have been comfortable for Obama of course, but closer than the norm.  The same goes for NY.  It's also the same reason why you see Obama polling tighter than normal in NC, IN and MS (for a while). 

I agree Mccain will do better in MA and RI than Bush did. That is why Mccain has a good chance at NH as well, but I doubt he will improve in NY. Look at the swings in NY from 2000 to 2004. Many people who vote democrat usually and cannot stand Bush's folksiness, still voted for him in 2004 because of the 9/11 effect. These people will return back to their normal voting patterns and the only way Mccain can gain ground is by winning moderate republicans and independents. I think Obama is getting a good amount of that moderate republican vote currently and those people live on long island and Westchester, two places that should swing to Obama. CT is a good measure of this and it seems like that state is swinging to Obama as well.  Mccain will probably perform as well as Bush in the upstate if not a little better and the boroughs I am not too sure about. Those areas contain the blue collar whites Obama has been having trouble with.

[© Tweed the Younger]

It would be the first time since 1992 in which either Nassau or Suffolk county NY voted Red rather than blue.  Traditionally, moderate republicans and white collar voters would carry the island for the republicans but local corruption and influx of minorities have hurt the GOP here over the past 10 yrs, along with the conservative movement of the party.

Bush came close to winning Suffolk in 04.  The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama leading 55-42%, still well out in front and in no peril of losing the state, but he may win only the boroughs, Albany, and a few counties upstate, similar to maps of 1988 and 1976.

Interesting also to note that McCain has the support right now of 20% of NY's democrats, but he loses 20% of republicans to Obama.  Had he held onto more republicans, perhaps he would have a chance at actually making my state competitive again.

where on LI are you from?

[MODU]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

I pretty much agree.  While I know many republicans on the island, there certainly aren't enough to tip it to McCain.  And when you consider how many more of them are snowbirds, they might be voting at their primary residence anyway, which could be out of state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Do you have any evidence other than some joke poll showing Obama up only 5% statewide? There were similar polls in 2004.

[Smash255]

MCCain is not going to win LI, he won't even come close.  Bush received a huge 9/11 bounce here which helped his numbers in 04, that bounce is LONG gone.
 Suffolk will obviously be a closer than Nassau, but he doesn't have a chance of winning yhat either. 

[Smash255]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

Well, the last Rasmussen poll shows Obama up by 13 in NY.  That means McCain at least carries Suffolk.

McCain is definitely going to win NY-1, though.

McCain isn't winning NY-1.  Bush won it by less than a point with the 9/11 bounce when he won nationally by 2.46%.  Not a chance.

[Smash255]

In order to carry the state, the GOP candidate must win 55-60% on the Island, 2/3 upstate and garnish at least 1/3 in the boroughs.  It's really tough to do.  Democrats outnumber Republicans 46-27% here.

Reagan won almost 2/3 of the island, 2/3 upstate and 1/3 of the boroughs and still only won by 8 pts in 84.  

Long Island was once very Republican.  It isn't anymore.  Going back to the time you are talking about, Republicans controlled everything on LI.  No we have both legislatures in Dem hands, both county execs in Dem hands, both DA's in Dem hands, 4 of the 5 Congressman from LI are Dems.  The area isn't GOP anymore.  This isn't the 80's anymore....

In fact the Dem shifts on Long Island along with Westchester is the main reason why LI has changed from lean Dem to strong Dem.

[Torie]

Nassau is packed with folks for are not Christian Anglos these days. What did Bush 2004 lose Nassau plus Suffolk by? 

Edit: It looks like around 3%-4%, which I find surprisingly low. In any event, I would be amazed if the Nassau demographics are not continuing to trend Dem.

[Smash255]

Nassau is packed with folks for are not Christian Anglos these days. What did Bush 2004 lose Nassau plus Suffolk by? 

Edit: It looks like around 3%-4%, which I find surprisingly low. In any event, I would be amazed if the Nassau demographics are not continuing to trend Dem.

It was that low due to Bush's 9/11 bounce, Gore won LI by about 15 or so.