*will* kerry recover?

[WalterMitty]

of course i know he *can* recover, but will he?

this thing is appearing more and more like a landslide with every passing day.  kerry's ineptitude as a candidate is striking.

i want some non-partisan answers.  how many think kerry will recover enough to at least make it a competitive race?

[King]

No, Kerry is too weak.

[MODU]

It seems that the Kerry campaign is beginning to waver over the last two weeks.  However, the campaign could easily recover during the debates, but if they continue to slide over the next few weeks, it might be too late.

[DarthKosh]

It seems that the Kerry campaign is beginning to waver over the last two weeks.  However, the campaign could easily recover during the debates, but if they continue to slide over the next few weeks, it might be too late.

He has to become positive and moderate to recover enough for the debates to make it even.  But if Kerry does that he will lose the rabid base.  So he is stuck where he is right now.

[Citizen James]

More than likely.   Unreliable sources provided a seed of doubt to undermine Kerry temporarilly, but Bush still suffers from rather high negatives.

Kerry simply has to prove that he can pass the extremely low bar of quality that would make him better than Bush (BTB) in the eyes of the increasingly rare centrist voters.  Still, any large swing doesn't set those voter's minds in stone - quite contrarily, it indicates that they are rather fluid in their opinions still.  Plus, there's the debates.  Last time Bush was able to get expectations so low that his handlers claimed victory because he didn't wet himself or run offstage screaming.   He won't have such an advantage this time around.  And with the sort of hubris many of his supporters are showing, he may find himself unable to meet the expectations that are projected for him.

Bush had a couple of good weeks, but there's still a quite a few shoes left to drop.   Unlike Republicans who claim it's over every time something sounds favorable to Bush (swift boats, better than dismal job figures, the controversy about national guard documents...) I tend to believe in the great saying of Yogi Bera - "it ain't over till it's over"

[The Vorlon]

Bush has an edge, he has a "real" lead of 4ish %.

This "landslide" talk in non-sense.

IF these CBS Dan Rather forgeries blow up on Kerry even further, I can see Bush stretching out a few more points, but thats a big if.

This thing is a long way from over.

MIddle of the 3rd quarter, Bush is up a field goal, and he has the ball....

I'd rather be Bush than Kerry, but there is a lot of football left to play...

[A18]

The guy who wins the election is always the guy who looks like less of a stuckup stiff.

So, after losing with Gore last year...the Dems nominate the one guy who's even worse...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The guy who wins the election is always the guy who looks like less of a stuckup stiff.

So, after losing with Gore last year...the Dems nominate the one guy who's even worse...

Gore was in an election last year?

[A18]

Last year [there was a presidential election]

[ATFFL]

Last year [there was a presidential election]

Psst. . . . You mean 4 years ago.  The last cycle.

[A18]

How clear do I have to make this?

[The] Last year [in which there was a presidential election]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

of course i know he *can* recover, but will he?

this thing is appearing more and more like a landslide with every passing day.  kerry's ineptitude as a candidate is striking.

i want some non-partisan answers.  how many think kerry will recover enough to at least make it a competitive race?

It will be "competitive" up to the Election Night.  Even if the current polls hold, there's still going to be drama.  I don't think Bush can pull further ahead than 10 points, and I don't think he's ever going to do much better than 52% nationally*.  That will leave things open for Kerry until the very end.

*Barring an October Surprise.

[mddem2004]

45% chance of recovery to make this a nail bitter.

Way, Way, Way too many things can effect this race to the very end.

Kerry's had a bad 2 weeks - not fatal - Yet.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

of course i know he *can* recover, but will he?

The ball's in the media's court. And you know what they think, and it ain't good for Democrats in general. They proved this when Dukakis ran.

I don't know why Kerry's support suddenly fell in the polls, but it looks like the media's pulling out all the stops to decide this election a couple months in advance. That, my friends, is cheating, but the media doesn't see it that way.

If Kerry loses, the states he wins will be perfectly justified in forming their own new country. Hopefully they'll save some room for me.

[A18]

You're going to have to come to terms with the fact that 90% of reporters in Washington are Democrats...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You're going to have to come to terms with the fact that 90% of reporters in Washington are Democrats...

You're going to have to come to terms with the fact that they ain't.

[A18]

Oh, and I'm all for Kerry states seceding and forming a new union. And I'm particularly optimistic about the idea of you moving there.

[A18]

It's a fact. Polls show it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Oh, and I'm all for Kerry states seceding and forming a new union. And I'm pretty sure you're in one.

Actually he's less likely to win my state than most others now.

But if he wins Ohio, then Ohio's annexing me, and that's all there is to it.

[A18]

Yeah, I confused you with someone else. I edited the post.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Let me be more specific: If Kerry so much as wins the city of Cincinnati, then the city annexes me.

It's my house, so I have a moral right to decide what city I'm in.

It doesn't make sense for a person who opposes Bush to be considered outside the limits of a city that opposes Bush more strongly than other cities in the area, when he lives only 2 blocks from the city limits.

[Blue Rectangle]

Kerry will probably not recover for two reasons:

--Bad EV map strategy
By failing to fight hold states like WI and IA, and by failing to attack states like MO, AR and VA, there are few scenarios in which Kerry can win.  We could see Kerry somehow win OH, only to lose because Bush picks up WI and IA.  You don't win over a state by mounting a strong campaign there only during the last few weeks, so it may be too late for Kerry to fix this problem.

--Bad "re-tooling"
Kerry shook things up after the RNC after weeks of sliding.  The problem for Kerry is, this re-tooled campaign looks as bad or worse than the campaign was before.  The new strategy is all-negative, all the time.  To paraphrase the candidate, this is "the wrong strategy, at the wrong time."  If Kerry had gotten dirty before the Swiftboat affair then he might have pulled it off, but going negative requires stockpiles of positive capital.  With Kerry's negatives already high, his attacks look desperate and Kerry looks weak.

As for the debates, I’ll repeat my prediction from a ways back:
The winner of the debates will be whoever is ahead before the debates.  If Kerry is ahead, Bush will look incompetent and out-of-touch.  If Bush is ahead, Kerry will look desperate and unlikable.  For Kerry to come from behind between now and the end of the month would be a miracle, and don’t count on him being able to pull ahead due to the debates.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I wouldn't be surprised if they stack the audience with Republican hacks again so they can laugh at Kerry every time he says something - just like they did with Dukakis.

Bush is a man out of control.

[Citizen James]

You're going to have to come to terms with the fact that 90% of reporters in Washington are Democrats...

Do you have a source for that, or is that a stat made up off the top of your head.

[John]

I think Kerry is going to do bad before November 2
then lose to Bush
I think Kerry is Going to give all to bush on Election night