*will* kerry recover?

[Shira]

 NO!!

The Dems in IA made a fatal mistake by not electing Dean.
Kerry did a big mistake by "I would go to Iraq even if I knew that there is no WMD there"

Recovery is impossible in my view.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Recovery is impossible in my view.

Not if we insist that Kerry goes in there and acts like he's President even if he "loses". Which is what Gore should have done.

[Shira]

Recovery is impossible in my view.

Not if we insist that Kerry goes in there and acts like he's President even if he "loses". Which is what Gore should have done.

Kerry can not compete with Bush's spinners.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kerry can not compete with Bush's spinners.

It's time he starts competing.

He needs to just say, "Look, Bush, you're a nutter, and I'm sticking by that."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The election is still too close to call IMO. The election will be decided by whether or not the Democrats Core Vote (which varies from state to state) can outvote the GOP's Core Vote (which also varies from state to state).
I genuinely don't know who will be President this time next year.

[Democratic Hawk]

This election is still very close. Bush may be leading nationally by c.5-6% - but the "swing states" are very much in play.

It may be come election day that Bush has huge majorities in Republican strongholds, while Kerry could potentially win many swing states by bare pluralities as well as Democratic safe states.

I'm expecting Bush's national lead to fall once they hit debating season- this is where Kerry has to prove himself to the undecideds.

Dave

[© tweed]

Kerry will recover to get within 3-4 but that's all.

[DarthKosh]

Kerry will recover to get within 3-4 but that's all.

He will be very lucky to even get that.

[JNB]

 Bush was helped by the RNC, terrorism in Russia, is now helped by 9/11 and also by Kerrys mis steps. That said, Kerry has to hit Bush hard on mision creep when it comes to Iraq, has to hit Bush hard on trade with China/Asia, has to focus on the economic insecurity so many Americans now feel, has to focus on underemployment.

  By having focus and discipline, and being disciplined in the debates, Kerry can pull from behind, but he has to be just that, disciplined.

[Democratic Hawk]

I agree JNB.

Dave

[CollectiveInterest]

The reason Republicans think the media is biased against them is that they believe their ideology more than they believe reality. If there's a differeence between Republican ideology and reality, then reality must be wrong. Or at least the medium for viewing reality, the media.

According to the most recent polls Kerry would have 273 EVs if the election were held today. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Kerry is on track to win PA and CO. And he's split in FL. BTW, undecideds are going to break for Kerry. And there's gonna be high turn-out, so polls of likely voters overstate Bush's strength.

So Kerrry doesn't need to recover. Bush needs to discover his "Willie Horton" to hammer Kerry. Were the Swiftboat lies Bush's best attack?

[A18]

Bush is up in poll after poll. If Kerry's above 268, it's some registered voters crap.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Kerry will probably not recover for two reasons:

--Bad EV map strategy
By failing to fight hold states like WI and IA,

Kerry and Edwards have been here so often in the past few months, it's hard *not* to run into them.

10 electoral votes, and both campaigns are fighting like mad for us.  It's kinda fun to watch.

[mddem2004]

Of course he will....its already happening



Note that Bush's Ave high in the polls is no higher than Kerry's was, and Kerry's Ave low is no lower than Bush's was. This thing will be close to the bitter end and anyone that does not think so.....(ie Phillip, AuH2O, et al) are only kidding themselves......and potentially setting themselves up for a very bitter pill to swallow come November.

[phillies]

mddem2004 graph is very interesting.

The notable feature is that the numbers don't add to 100%, while the numbers on Election Eve will add to 100% once you include Badnarik, Peroutka, Nader, and Cobb, perhaps with Nader and Peroutka interchanged.

Where are the missing percentages going to go?  That number is entirely adequate to have a major effect on things.

[phillies]

In addition, historically the undecided vote tends to oppose the incumbent, and Bush seems distinctly short of 50%.  Worse, for him, he seems to have more EVs in states he is carrying by a landslide.

Kerry is not in bad shape, and Bush could win.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is it likely that Kerry will win the electoral vote while losing the popular vote?

I can't wait to see the conservative sore losers bawl their little eyes out if that happens!

[Bogart]

Of course Kerry can recover. The race is still way too close to call in far too many states. Will he?  That's tough to say. Obviously, the debates will be critical to any recovery he may have. As long as Bush avoids a major gaffe, Kerry will really have to focus on not looking like a slightly less stiff version of Al Gore. I don't expect the debates to be slam dunk for Kerry.

[Blue Rectangle]

Kerry will probably not recover for two reasons:

--Bad EV map strategy
By failing to fight hold states like WI and IA,

Kerry and Edwards have been here so often in the past few months, it's hard *not* to run into them.

10 electoral votes, and both campaigns are fighting like mad for us.  It's kinda fun to watch.

I was working off old info.  July, I believe, had more visits by Bush than Kerry in WI.  Also, Kerry only just recently pulled ads in CO, LA, NC, etc.--money that should have been spent in WI and IA.  It seems to me that Edwards has been the main campaigner in WI and IA, while Kerry focuses on OH, PA and WV.  I wish someone could make a map of number of visits in each state, along with ad spending.  The last ad spending map I saw was in early July.

[khirkhib]

Bandit you should register to vote in Ohio.  One month residency.  You could crash at a friends place for that long and your vote would have a greater impact.  And seriously from one of the apologists what would Bush Co. do if Bush won the popular vote and Kerry won the electoral?

[khirkhib]

nobody ever answered my question and I would like to know.  What will bush do if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote?  

Last time the US Supreme Court gave a one time only decision to stop counting votes in Florida.  What ifthe court reveresed that call next time and it led to a Bush victory?  Would you guys call foul?  Is their any thing at all that could turn you off Bush?

[MODU]

nobody ever answered my question and I would like to know.  What will bush do if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote?  

He'll shrug his shoulders and go home, and not pull a Gore.

[agcatter]

what he said

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What will bush do if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote?

He'll whine about it like a little baby. And all of his followers will spend the next 50 years crying that it was rigged.

[MODU]

What will bush do if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote?

He'll whine about it like a little baby. And all of his followers will spend the next 50 years crying that it was rigged.

Sorry, I think you are talking about the Democrats and their actions following 2000.