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Author Topic: Rasmussen Oregon: Smith lead down to one  (Read 1998 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: September 17, 2008, 02:03:49 pm »
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Smith 46
Merkley 45
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 03:05:28 pm by Coffee Shop Revolutionary »Logged

I wanna contribute to the chaos
I don't wanna watch and then complain,
'cause I am through finding blame
that is the decision that I have made
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2008, 02:06:22 pm »
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I think this financial crisis is really helping Democrats.  I would not be surprised to see other Democrats numbers rise as well over the next few days.  Even Obama went up about five points yesterday. 
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CultureKing
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2008, 02:08:19 pm »
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it makes sense, Merkley should be a strong challenger. Though I have doubts about whether or not he can actually win.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2008, 02:10:32 pm »
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I think this financial crisis is really helping Democrats.  I would not be surprised to see other Democrats numbers rise as well over the next few days.  Even Obama went up about five points yesterday. 

True, even a lot of rich conservatives should be coming to the conclusion that a Democratic SEC chair would be helpful.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2008, 02:17:10 pm »
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This is our 6th best pickup opportunity. I think Merkley can pull it out if Obama can carry the state by a comfortable margin.
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On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2008, 02:18:26 pm »
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This is our 6th best pickup opportunity. I think Merkley can pull it out if Obama can carry the state by a comfortable margin.

So AK is 5th and MN is 7th?
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2008, 02:32:38 pm »
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So AK is 5th and MN is 7th?

In my opinion, yes.  North Carolina would actually rival Minnesota for 7th. Do you agree?
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On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2008, 02:35:40 pm »
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This may explain Smith's recent advertising.
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2008, 02:37:46 pm »
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This may explain Smith's recent advertising.

I'm not exactly following this race too closely, but it seems to me that Smith's current problems appear to be entirely of his own making...fair assessment?
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Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2008, 02:40:43 pm »
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This may explain Smith's recent advertising.

I'm not exactly following this race too closely, but it seems to me that Smith's current problems appear to be entirely of his own making...fair assessment?

I honestly don't know.  I've been following the race super-sporadically, just picking up on regional blogs that cover both OR & WA.  You may very well know more than me, since I don't know what Smith's done to make this so close.
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2008, 09:06:41 pm »
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Well, it looks like the disgusting rape ads aren't working. That's cool.

It's also kind of awesome that MN, OR and NC are all tightening up. Now we just need MS or KY or ME to hit 60 seats.
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THE FRONTRUNNER

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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2008, 10:48:39 pm »
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Smith would be a goner if he were up against a first- or second-tier candidate.  Cause for alarm.
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jokerman
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2008, 10:52:09 pm »
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Perhaps the same polarization that has driven Obama's lead to single digits here has also aided Merkley in keeping it close.
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2008, 11:17:58 pm »
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Perhaps the same polarization that has driven Obama's lead to single digits here has also aided Merkley in keeping it close.



Without seeing a regional breakdown its hard to say for sure where the drop for Smith is located (but even then the MOE is too high) but Smith has been successful in the past with his ability to do well (for a Republican) in the Portland metro.  Your dealing with what is generally a very well educated area, so they might be more likely to be turned off by the negative ads Leif was mentioning, and just a hardening in support for Merkley as a result og that factor and the increased polarization.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2008, 11:25:55 pm »
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Perhaps the same polarization that has driven Obama's lead to single digits here has also aided Merkley in keeping it close.



Without seeing a regional breakdown its hard to say for sure where the drop for Smith is located (but even then the MOE is too high) but Smith has been successful in the past with his ability to do well (for a Republican) in the Portland metro.  Your dealing with what is generally a very well educated area, so they might be more likely to be turned off by the negative ads Leif was mentioning, and just a hardening in support for Merkley as a result og that factor and the increased polarization.

Portland also seems like the type of area where Sarah Palin wouldn't play well.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2008, 11:26:06 pm »
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Ugh, I'm becoming nervous.
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2008, 11:49:22 pm »
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This is definitely getting to the point where the Constitution Party candidate could ruin it for Smith.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2008, 12:15:56 am »
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Smith would be a goner if he were up against a first- or second-tier candidate.  Cause for alarm.

I would say Merkley is a solid second tier candidate. Its not like he is an unknown or anything.
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Aizen
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2008, 12:18:05 am »
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Smith is related to the Udall cousins, right? It would be funny if the Udalls won and Smith lost. Awkward Christmas dinner.
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Senator PiT
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2008, 01:30:29 am »
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     Disturbing, but at the same time not surprising.
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Smash255
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2008, 01:47:13 am »
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Perhaps the same polarization that has driven Obama's lead to single digits here has also aided Merkley in keeping it close.



Without seeing a regional breakdown its hard to say for sure where the drop for Smith is located (but even then the MOE is too high) but Smith has been successful in the past with his ability to do well (for a Republican) in the Portland metro.  Your dealing with what is generally a very well educated area, so they might be more likely to be turned off by the negative ads Leif was mentioning, and just a hardening in support for Merkley as a result og that factor and the increased polarization.

Portland also seems like the type of area where Sarah Palin wouldn't play well.

Yup, not exactly religious right territory.
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