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Author Topic: New Survey USA Polls just out  (Read 10086 times)
agcatter
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« on: September 10, 2004, 08:47:38 pm »
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Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.
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agcatter
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2004, 08:56:04 pm »
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In Mo, Bush carries Rep - 94 -4, Kerry Dems 91-6.  Ind go to Bush by 49-40.  Democrats staying with Kerry better in this state than in other states I've been seeing.  That kind of surprised me given Mo. is a border state.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2004, 09:01:03 pm »
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As long as Bush is winning Independents, he's in great shape, no matter what the other poll numbers are really.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2004, 09:04:54 pm »
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Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2004, 09:08:42 pm »
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In this poll I wonder if blacks could possibly have been overpolled given the more than normal solidarity of the Democratic voters.
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mddem2004
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2004, 09:19:40 pm »
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Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).
It really is tiring to here from you that the polls that may be 'surprising' or do not favor Bush the way you want them fit into your world are somehow.....Democratic leaning. If that were the case, why is not PA going Kerry by +5%???

The poll results are a bit closer than I expected as well. However, without delving too far into SUSA's methodology, they did have a pretty accurate record during the Democratic Primaries which, I'm sure most would agree, are tougher to poll for than a general election.
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2004, 09:28:02 pm »
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I'm sorry it's "tiring" for you.  

In 2000, Bush won Mo by 3, tied nationally.
In 2004, Bush up 2 there, yet up nationally by 5.

That is a bit surprising.  So what?
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2004, 09:52:11 pm »

These have been posted in the polls section.
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mddem2004
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2004, 09:56:53 pm »
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I'm sorry it's "tiring" for you.  

In 2000, Bush won Mo by 3, tied nationally.
In 2004, Bush up 2 there, yet up nationally by 5.

That is a bit surprising.  So what?
Easy agcat.....my fatigue was not directed at you  Smiley
Besides, all those numbers you cite ARE within the MOE

But back to SUSA - I'm not specifically defending them ...but.....those numbers for MO are about where they were pre RNC. As for accuracy of SUSA........

NH               SUSA              Actual
Kerry             33                   38
Dean             28                   26
Edwards       14                   12
Clark             12                   12
Lieberman      7                     8

Oklahoma
Clark             29                   30
Edwards       27                   29
Kerry            26                    27
Dean              7                     4

MO
Kerry            44                   50
Edwards       20                   24
Dean            15                    8
Clark              6                    4

TN
Kerry             35                   41
Edwards        25                  26
Clark             24                   23
Dean               9                    4

AZ
Kerry            34                   42
Clark            28                   26
Dean            18                   14
Lieberman      7                    7
Edwards        7                     7

At first glance at Kerry's numbers one might say not real accurate. Yet much of Kerry's higher numbers are the result of the 'piling on' effect once he had won New Hampshire and people were voting for who was obviously going to win. What struck me most about their polling was how accurate they were with the other candidates results. Not bad for primary polls from a firm that 'churns' out the polls.......
« Last Edit: September 10, 2004, 09:59:33 pm by mddem2004 »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2004, 10:00:57 pm »
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Sorry.  

I appreciate the Survey accuracy numbers...
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Umengus
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2004, 01:59:28 am »
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No bush bounce in the susa polls. A little bit stranger...
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Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2004, 02:04:40 am »
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S-USA showing no bounce is odd.  They appear to have had a bit of an off round of polling.

Oh, mddem, your history of S-USA is not so good a way to refute Carl's claim that they have a pull toward the democrats.  There are no republicans to be pulling away from in those.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2004, 02:38:45 am »
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S-USA showing no bounce is odd.  They appear to have had a bit of an off round of polling.

Oh, mddem, your history of S-USA is not so good a way to refute Carl's claim that they have a pull toward the democrats.  There are no republicans to be pulling away from in those.

The problem is that Carl Hayden will cast doubt on 'any' poll that shows some advantage for Kerry or not bad news for Kerry. He has been doing that since long ago. The fact that he doesn't have a state or any avatar and he posts all the time attacks on Kerry disguised in some supposed polling expertise, makes him in my opinion the owner of the: 'stealth troll' award.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2004, 05:17:00 am »
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What I like about SUSA is all the demographic/regional info... I don't really bother with the headline numbers.
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2004, 06:04:07 am »
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Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).
It really is tiring to here from you that the polls that may be 'surprising' or do not favor Bush the way you want them fit into your world are somehow.....Democratic leaning. If that were the case, why is not PA going Kerry by +5%???

The poll results are a bit closer than I expected as well. However, without delving too far into SUSA's methodology, they did have a pretty accurate record during the Democratic Primaries which, I'm sure most would agree, are tougher to poll for than a general election.

Perhaps you did not read my post very carefully or do no comprehyend the difference between polling for primaries and polling for general elections.

I repeat again, look at their record, they are NOT very accurate in general elections as they overload their polls with Democrats.

I have previously given examples of this (remember Nevada)?
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2004, 09:33:12 am »
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SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

They nailed 25/28 races in 2002.
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2004, 10:42:53 am »
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S-USA showing no bounce is odd.  They appear to have had a bit of an off round of polling.

Oh, mddem, your history of S-USA is not so good a way to refute Carl's claim that they have a pull toward the democrats.  There are no republicans to be pulling away from in those.

The problem is that Carl Hayden will cast doubt on 'any' poll that shows some advantage for Kerry or not bad news for Kerry. He has been doing that since long ago. The fact that he doesn't have a state or any avatar and he posts all the time attacks on Kerry disguised in some supposed polling expertise, makes him in my opinion the owner of the: 'stealth troll' award.


  The problem with Carl is he is a pure partisan, and I take his posts with a grain of salt.
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2004, 10:53:48 am »
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I'm a partisan Democrat and I can't even vote!

Most of these state polls indicate that, despite Bush leading c.6% nationally, that the race remains pretty tight, which is sustaning my interest above all else.

Dave
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2004, 09:04:01 pm »
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Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).
It really is tiring to here from you that the polls that may be 'surprising' or do not favor Bush the way you want them fit into your world are somehow.....Democratic leaning. If that were the case, why is not PA going Kerry by +5%???

The poll results are a bit closer than I expected as well. However, without delving too far into SUSA's methodology, they did have a pretty accurate record during the Democratic Primaries which, I'm sure most would agree, are tougher to poll for than a general election.

First, you seem to be mixing up my post with the statements of the poster to whom I replied.

I was not suprised by SUSA's results.

Oh, and as to historical results, I suggest you check the record of the Literary Digest poll.
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2004, 09:07:41 pm »
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I'm sorry it's "tiring" for you.  

In 2000, Bush won Mo by 3, tied nationally.
In 2004, Bush up 2 there, yet up nationally by 5.

That is a bit surprising.  So what?
Easy agcat.....my fatigue was not directed at you  Smiley
Besides, all those numbers you cite ARE within the MOE

But back to SUSA - I'm not specifically defending them ...but.....those numbers for MO are about where they were pre RNC. As for accuracy of SUSA........

NH               SUSA              Actual
Kerry             33                   38
Dean             28                   26
Edwards       14                   12
Clark             12                   12
Lieberman      7                     8

Oklahoma
Clark             29                   30
Edwards       27                   29
Kerry            26                    27
Dean              7                     4

MO
Kerry            44                   50
Edwards       20                   24
Dean            15                    8
Clark              6                    4

TN
Kerry             35                   41
Edwards        25                  26
Clark             24                   23
Dean               9                    4

AZ
Kerry            34                   42
Clark            28                   26
Dean            18                   14
Lieberman      7                    7
Edwards        7                     7

At first glance at Kerry's numbers one might say not real accurate. Yet much of Kerry's higher numbers are the result of the 'piling on' effect once he had won New Hampshire and people were voting for who was obviously going to win. What struck me most about their polling was how accurate they were with the other candidates results. Not bad for primary polls from a firm that 'churns' out the polls.......

First, with the exception of the Oklahoma example, in all instances SUSA was outside the MOE for the winner.  Not a real good recommendation.

Second, SUSA likes polling Democrats, and in the general election polls loads their polls with extra Democrats (see their poll of Nevada of about eight weeks ago).
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2004, 09:14:15 pm »
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S-USA showing no bounce is odd.  They appear to have had a bit of an off round of polling.

Oh, mddem, your history of S-USA is not so good a way to refute Carl's claim that they have a pull toward the democrats.  There are no republicans to be pulling away from in those.

The problem is that Carl Hayden will cast doubt on 'any' poll that shows some advantage for Kerry or not bad news for Kerry. He has been doing that since long ago. The fact that he doesn't have a state or any avatar and he posts all the time attacks on Kerry disguised in some supposed polling expertise, makes him in my opinion the owner of the: 'stealth troll' award.


  The problem with Carl is he is a pure partisan, and I take his posts with a grain of salt.

Perhaps you are so new you do not remember the number of polls showing Bush farther ahead than I believe was the case.

To cite a few examples:

In June Harris produced a survey having Bush ahead by ten points.  Although I respect Lou and his organization, I stated at that time the poll was way out of line.

A few days ago when both Time and Newsweek showed Bush with a lead of 10 points or more, I criticized both of those polls as excessive.

Another survey research firm suggested that Bush had a lead of 16 points in Arizona (about a week ago), I stated that I though that was excessive.

A few days ago another survey research firm showed Bush with a large lead in Missouri, I criticized that.

Also, another survey research firm had a poll showing Bush ahead by 19 points in North Carolina.  Again I stated that was excessive.

Enough examples for you?
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2004, 09:15:44 pm »
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SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

They nailed 25/28 races in 2002.

Please be so kind as to post the SUSA polls you are claiming they "nailed."
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2004, 11:24:52 pm »
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\
Please be so kind as to post the SUSA polls you are claiming they "nailed."

Arizona  Governer:
SUSA: Napolitano by 2
Actual: Napolitano by 1

Arizona Attorney General
SUSA: Goddard by 13
Actual: Goddard by 8

Arizona Secretary Of State
SUSA: Brewer by 2
Actual: Brewer by 2

Arizona Treasurer
SUSA: Tie
Actual: Tie

California Governor
SUSA: Davis by 6
Actual: Davis by 6

Colorado Senate
SUSA: Allard by 4
Actual: Allard by 5

Florida Governor
SUSA: Bush by 5
Actual: Bush by 13

Illinois Governor
SUSA: Blagojevich by 13
Actual: Blagojevich by 8

Illinois Senate
SUSA: Durbin by 25
Actual: Durbin by 22

Illinois Attorney General
SUSA: Madigan by 7
Actual: Madigan by 4

Illinois Secretary of State
SUSA: White by 40
Actual: White by 38

Iowa Governor
SUSA: Vilsack by 14
Actual: Vilsack by 8

Iowa Senate (ouch)
SUSA: Harkin by 22
Actual: Harkin by 10

Kansas Governor
SUSA: Sebelius by 7
Actual: Sebelius by 8

Kansas Attorney General (ouch)(
SUSA: Kline by 12
Actual: Tie

Kansas Treasurer
SUSA: Jenkins by 15
Actual: Jenkins by 12

Kentucky Senate
SUSA: McConnel by 37
Actual: McConnel by  28

Maryland Governor
SUSA: Ehrlich by 5
Actual: Ehrlich by 3

Michigan Governor
SUSA: Granholm by  6
Actual: Granholm by 4

Missouri Senate (WRONG)
SUSA: Carnahan by 2
Actual: Talent by 1

Nevada Governor
SUSA: Guinn by 35
Actual: Guin by 46

Nevada Lt. Governor (WRONG, and ouch)
SUSA: Kenny by 2
Actual: Hunt by 10

Nevada Attorney General
SUSA: Sandoval by 17
Actual: Sandoval by 24

New Jersey Senate
SUSA: Lautenberg by 10
Actual: Lautenberg by 10

New York Governor
SUSA: Pataki by 15
Actual: Pataki by 16

NC Senate
SUSA: Dole by 4
Actual: Dole by 9

Ohio Governor
SUSA: Taft by 18
Actual: Taft by 20

Oklahoma Governor
SUSA: Henry by 4
Actual: Tie

Oklahoma Senate
SUSA: Inhofe by 17
Actual: Inhove by 20

Pennsylvania Governor (ouch)
SUSA: Rendell by 19
Actual: Rendell by 8

Rhode Island Governor
SUSA: Carcieri by 3
Actual:  Carcieri by 10

South Carolina Governor (OUCH)
SUSA: Hodges by 6
Actual: Sanford by 6

South Carolina Senate
SUSA: Graham by 1
Actual: Graham by 10

Tennessee Governor
SUSA: Bredesen by 4
Actual:  Bredesen by 3

Tennessee Senate
SUSA: Alexander by 11
Actual: Alexander by 11

Texas Governor
SUSA: Perry by 10
Actual: Perry by 18

Texas Lt. Governor
SUSA: Dewhurst by 7
Actual: Dewhurst by 5

Texas Senate
SUSA: Cornyn by 8
Actual: Kirk by 12

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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2004, 09:42:51 am »
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Thank you for your posting.

I suggest you check out the Texas Senate race where Cornyn actually won!  I think you transposed the figures.

So, in 17 of the races, the error was 4 per cent or more.  In 16 of the 17 races with this error rate, the Democrat received a higher SUSA percentage than actual election results.

Of the 19 elections where SUSA had projections of 3 per cent of less, they over projected the Democrat candidate vote in 12, the Republican candidate in 3, and 'nailed it' in four.

Taking all thirty six races together, SUSA, in the aggregate tended to favor the Democrats candidates by 2.8%

As such, they are not out of the ballpark, but the clearly tend to favor Democrat candidates.

Enough said?
« Last Edit: September 12, 2004, 09:55:44 am by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2004, 11:12:24 am »
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SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

They nailed 25/28 races in 2002.

Come on Tweed.

I want to see you again boast about the accuracy of SUSA.
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