50/50 Elections

[nclib]

I'm going to make a series of maps, mostly for my own enjoyment, of what elections would look like if the Republican and Democratic votes were swung to exactly equal.

How do you come up with this formula?

I would imagine if Dem won nationally 54-46, and Cal. went 52-48 Dem, he would subtract four from the Dem total and add add four to the GOP total, which would result in the nation being 50-50 and Cal. being 52-48 GOP.

[nclib]

I compiled the results to find which states have the longest streak of voting more Dem or GOP than the national average:

state (Dem)   most recent more GOP than nation
PA                   1948
MN                   1952
MA,NY,RI             1956

state (GOP)   most recent more Dem than nation
IN,KS,WY             1928 or earlier
NE                   1932
ND                   1936

Most are unsurprising, though it looks PA have consistently been more Dem than the nation, even though it hasn't been among the most Democratic any given year.

[nclib]

2008

John McCain (R) - 326
Barack Obama (D) - 212

Didn't Obama carry MN and NH (and possibly others) by more than the national average?

[nclib]

Best performances in a 50-50 race (so far of 1960-2008)

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
1984 - 56.32%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%


GOP

1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)
1984 - 54.36%

[nclib]

2012:

Obama 285
Romney 253

[nclib]

Bump - here's 2016:

Trump 320
Clinton 218

[nclib]

Best performances in a 50-50 race (so far of 1960-2008)

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
1984 - 56.32%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%


GOP

1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)
1984 - 54.36%

In 2016, Trump won 59.48% over the 50-50 electoral vote and 58.72% without the state bonus.

Making the best performances in a 50-50 race from 1960-2016:

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
2016 - 59.48%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%

GOP

2016 - 58.72%
1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)