New Survey USA Polls just out

[mddem2004]

Mo.

Bush  +2

This surprised me.  Bush leading nationally by 5 should have been up by more.  Heck, he won by 3 last time with the national popular vote tied.


Penn

Kerry +2

This doesn't surprise me.


Ind, Kentucky, Kansas all Bush as expected.  Like I said, Mo. really is surprising.

SUSA leans Democrat in their polling.

Look at their record.

They're pretty consistently at the outer edges of credibility in their polls, consistently in the same direction (more Democrat than the other credible polls).

It really is tiring to here from you that the polls that may be 'surprising' or do not favor Bush the way you want them fit into your world are somehow.....Democratic leaning. If that were the case, why is not PA going Kerry by +5%???

The poll results are a bit closer than I expected as well. However, without delving too far into SUSA's methodology, they did have a pretty accurate record during the Democratic Primaries which, I'm sure most would agree, are tougher to poll for than a general election.

[mddem2004]

I'm sorry it's "tiring" for you.  

In 2000, Bush won Mo by 3, tied nationally.
In 2004, Bush up 2 there, yet up nationally by 5.

That is a bit surprising.  So what?

Easy agcat.....my fatigue was not directed at you  
Besides, all those numbers you cite ARE within the MOE

But back to SUSA - I'm not specifically defending them ...but.....those numbers for MO are about where they were pre RNC. As for accuracy of SUSA........

NH               SUSA              Actual
Kerry             33                   38
Dean             28                   26
Edwards       14                   12
Clark             12                   12
Lieberman      7                     8

Oklahoma
Clark             29                   30
Edwards       27                   29
Kerry            26                    27
Dean              7                     4

MO
Kerry            44                   50
Edwards       20                   24
Dean            15                    8
Clark              6                    4

TN
Kerry             35                   41
Edwards        25                  26
Clark             24                   23
Dean               9                    4

AZ
Kerry            34                   42
Clark            28                   26
Dean            18                   14
Lieberman      7                    7
Edwards        7                     7

At first glance at Kerry's numbers one might say not real accurate. Yet much of Kerry's higher numbers are the result of the 'piling on' effect once he had won New Hampshire and people were voting for who was obviously going to win. What struck me most about their polling was how accurate they were with the other candidates results. Not bad for primary polls from a firm that 'churns' out the polls.......