Westchester County, NY in 2004: A Work in Progress on the 9/11 Effect

[Erc]

Inspired by the thread here, and thanks to cinyc's links to detailed results for Westchester County, I've decided to take a detailed look at the voting habits of Westchester in 2004.

In 2004, Westchester voted 58.07% - 40.33% for Kerry.
In 2000, Westchester voted 58.63% - 37.46% for Gore.

Bush improved on his percentage in Westchester by 2.869%, almost exactly equal to his nationwide increase of 2.864%.  On a whole, 9/11 doesn't seem to have affected the voting habits of Westchester disproportionately compared to the rest of the country...but it should be interesting to take a look at it on a closer basis.

In the following table, the "Swing from 2000" is the increase in the Republican percentage of the vote (looking only at the Republican percent as a way to partially cancel out Nader).  Trend is the increase in the Republican percentage of the vote in comparison to the total Westchester swing of 2.87%.

Municipality	Total Vote	Kerry	Bush	Swing	Trend
Mount Vernon	23026	79.74%	18.09%	1.28%	-1.59%
Greenburgh	43291	65.57%	32.93%	2.76%	-0.10%
New Castle	9773	65.91%	32.93%	1.03%	-1.84%
White Plains	22365	64.79%	33.46%	2.99%	0.12%
Scarsdale	9071	65.34%	33.68%	3.84%	0.97%
New Rochelle	28362	62.16%	36.27%	6.15%	3.28%
Peekskill	7679	61.83%	36.46%	3.19%	0.32%
Mamaroneck	14224	62.09%	36.48%	1.27%	-1.60%
Ossining	14798	61.25%	37.36%	2.07%	-0.80%
Mount Kisco	3999	60.99%	37.41%	2.37%	-0.50%
Yonkers	66397	56.68%	41.46%	3.11%	0.24%
Pound Ridge	2983	56.08%	42.68%	0.16%	-2.71%
Rye (Town)	15644	55.16%	43.24%	4.61%	1.75%
Bedford	8285	54.92%	43.55%	-1.71%	-4.58%
Cortlandt	19282	54.09%	44.31%	3.94%	1.07%
Lewisboro	6964	53.78%	45.09%	0.92%	-1.95%
Pelham	6122	51.40%	47.03%	-0.94%	-3.81%
North Castle	6394	50.11%	48.42%	2.51%	-0.36%
Rye (City)	7673	49.64%	48.99%	-0.96%	-3.82%
Mount Pleasant	19001	48.42%	49.93%	2.08%	-0.79%
North Salem	2751	47.07%	51.22%	1.06%	-1.81%
Yorktown	18306	47.07%	51.43%	5.05%	2.18%
Harrison	11648	45.32%	53.02%	5.91%	3.04%
Somers	11109	45.07%	53.69%	3.10%	0.23%
Eastchester	16671	43.87%	54.65%	1.66%	-1.21%
Total	395818	58.07%	40.33%	2.87%	0.00%

Of interest are the incredibly large swings in either direction:

The largest swings to Bush were in:
New Rochelle (+6.15%)
Harrison (+5.91%)
Yorktown (+5.05%).

Three towns swung against Bush...he did worse here than he did in 2000:
Bedford (-1.71%)
Rye (City) (-0.96%)
Pelham (-0.94%)

I'm not surprised at all by New Rochelle...heavily Italian, just the sort of place you'd expect a swing like that.

What got me started on this project was the swing I already knew about against Bush in my hometown of Pelham---to see whether it was unique or not---and, with a couple of exceptions, it is.  Pelham was one of the five municipalities in Westchester to vote for Bush in 2000, and I believe its vote for Kerry was the first time the town voted Democratic in recorded history.  The place is trending Democratic, certainly (one-party Republican rule [i.e. Democrats didn't even run] in the southern half of town ended around the same time...and if the place voted for Dole in 1996, there's obviously been a considerable shift)...though I can't really explain it myself.

Looking at precinct-level data, it looks like (though I'm not quite certain which precincts line up with which geographic locations) North Pelham [closer to New Rochelle geographically and demographically] had a large swing to Bush, while the rest of the town swung against Bush.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I doubt Pelham voted for Goldwater.

[Erc]

I doubt Pelham voted for Goldwater.

Probably not (though I wouldn't be surprised if the southern half did)...and Westchester swung against the Republicans far less than, say, upstate did.

[Verily]

Scarsdale has to be one of the wealthiest municipalities in the country to vote for Kerry, certainly to vote for him that strongly.

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[Erc]

Scarsdale has to be one of the wealthiest municipalities in the country to vote for Kerry, certainly to vote for him that strongly.

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It is Scaaahsdale, after all.  When you think of "rich elitist liberals" you think of Scarsdale.

[Erc]

Considering that the town of 12,000-odd lost around 9 people in the attacks themselves, one would think that any 9/11 effect would be present there.

Bush won Pelham in 2000 by only 30 votes (Nader got 224)...I don't know how each part of the town voted without knowing which precinct is which (though, of course, Pelham Manor should be the more Republican).

All I can say that the precincts that swung to Bush all did vote for Gore in 2000.

My best guesses for the swing, from living there at the time (albeit while in high school)...negative reaction to the war, influx of younger couples into suburbia, general increasing emphasis on social issues?

[Erc]

My best guesses for the swing, from living there at the time (albeit while in high school)...negative reaction to the war, influx of younger couples into suburbia, general increasing emphasis on social issues?

Really? I'm from Pelham myself. I never went to school there, but my sister does, and she says that the students and teachers are overwhelmingly Republican and pro-war.

Apart from one history teacher who went all insanely patriotic after 9/11, that was never my experience...if anything, I thought the faculty mildly left-leaning.

[Хahar 🤔]

Scarsdale has to be one of the wealthiest municipalities in the country to vote for Kerry, certainly to vote for him that strongly.

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It is Scaaahsdale, after all.  When you think of "rich elitist liberals" you think of Scarsdale.

Yup. Scarsdale is the only place I've seen quite like the rich, heavily D communities we have here.

[Torie]

Scarsdale is heavily Jewish, and has been Dem since rocks cooled. Eastchester, equally rich, is heavily Catholic. That is the rap on this. Rich WASPS in Westchester (an eroding demographic) have to a rather remarkable degree just thought Bush was infra dig.

[Verily]

Scarsdale has to be one of the wealthiest municipalities in the country to vote for Kerry, certainly to vote for him that strongly.

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It is Scaaahsdale, after all.  When you think of "rich elitist liberals" you think of Scarsdale.

True. They weren't always so liberal, though; my mother's family were members of the Scarsdale Golf Club back when it didn't admit Jews. This is especially ironic given the Jewish concentration there now. Of course, she didn't grow up in Scarsdale proper but just over the line in a wealthy neighboring area in Hartsdale (which IIRC is in Greenburgh).

[Jacobtm]

What is your hypothesis here about swing for/against Bush in various Westchester municipalities? It seems like when you control for Bush's increased national margin, that it was simply Republican areas who voted a bit more heavily for Bush.