Obama Landslide vs McCain Landslide
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 09:44:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Obama Landslide vs McCain Landslide		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Obama Landslide vs McCain Landslide  (Read 12392 times)
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 18, 2008, 10:57:41 PM »
Post your map at what you think the max credible landslide could be for either candidate. Consider either one has a major flub, but nothing over the top (Obama gets caught f'in his dog, type, none of that kind of silliness).


Obama :



Obama/Biden : 401
McCain/Palin  : 137

McCain :



McCain/Palin : 387
Obama/Biden : 151
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,063


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2008, 11:03:53 PM »
Obama:



402-136

WV might have flipped, but I just can't see them voting for Obama.

McCain:



385-153
Logged
NDN
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,495
Uganda


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2008, 11:10:15 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2008, 11:13:58 PM by Rorschach »

Maybe not a 'true' landslide but about as good as I see McCain doing.
Logged
NDN
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,495
Uganda


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2008, 11:15:29 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2008, 11:21:19 PM by Rorschach »

I'm actually not even sure this map is possible due to racism, but here you go.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2008, 12:05:44 AM »


McCain's best
374/164




Obama's best
378/160
Logged
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2008, 12:39:05 PM »
Not necessarily my opinion, but cherrypicking the best polls for both (that are from anytime in Dave's database) one gets:

Obama Landslide

369-154-15

McCain Landslide

410-114-14
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,678
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2008, 12:42:24 PM »
Mostly agree with Jeff. Though, strangely, he's been a wee bit too kind to Obama in the McCain landslide map
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2008, 02:34:39 AM »
Quote from: Al Sibboleth on September 23, 2008, 12:42:24 PM
Mostly agree with Jeff. Though, strangely, he's been a wee bit too kind to Obama in the McCain landslide map

Obama has more of a chance to get a landslide in this sort of environment, imho.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2008, 05:43:55 PM »
Obama landslide (405-133)Sad


McCain landslide (374-164)Sad
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2008, 06:04:49 AM »


Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 393
John McCain/Sarah Palin - 145




John McCain/Sarah Palin - 346
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 192
Logged
Daniel Z
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 785
Switzerland


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2008, 11:33:29 AM »
Obama landslide


Obama: 435
McCain: 103

McCain landslide:


McCain: 446
Obama" 92
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2008, 08:05:54 PM »
Arizona is a bit of a stretch, IMHO.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,997
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2008, 01:17:05 PM »


Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,063


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2008, 01:57:19 PM »
We're beginning to get into landslide territory now.
Logged
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,212
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2008, 01:59:56 PM »
Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on October 06, 2008, 01:57:19 PM
We're beginning to get into landslide territory now.

yep, in reality, and taking momentum into account, Obama is up around 12% right now.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2008, 10:24:21 PM »
I did a simple analysis of election margins since 1932. One of the best correlations is between the percent margin of the GOP candidate minus the Dem candidate vs. the GOP EC total. The data is a good fit to a straight line for margins +/- 10%. Beyond that in either direction it flattens out as the EC is saturated one way or the other.

In between the 10% limit each percent either way is a shift of about 18.5 EV for the GOP. If those limits define a landslide, then a GOP landslide would get 454 EV, and a Dem landslide would hold the GOP to 84 EV.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2008, 06:11:26 PM »
Both are extremely unlikely:



McCain 392
Obama 146



Obama 533
McCain 5
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2008, 06:12:50 PM »

No.  Even in my wildest dreams, that map wouldn't happen.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2008, 06:16:56 PM »

It's EXTREMELY unlikely. Republicans said the same thing on October 11, 1972 and October 11, 1984, though Wink
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2008, 06:18:34 PM »
Quote from: Politico on October 11, 2008, 06:16:56 PM

It's EXTREMELY unlikely. Republicans said the same thing on October 11, 1972 and October 11, 1984, though Wink

Yeah, but in no way is this election like 1972 or 1984.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2008, 06:23:17 PM »
Quote from: Bob Marley, Poet and a Prophet on October 11, 2008, 06:18:34 PM
Quote from: Politico on October 11, 2008, 06:16:56 PM

It's EXTREMELY unlikely. Republicans said the same thing on October 11, 1972 and October 11, 1984, though Wink

Yeah, but in no way is this election like 1972 or 1984.

I agree, but you just never know. A 49-state landslide could happen under the perfect circumstances...
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2008, 11:01:39 PM »
Quote from: Politico on October 11, 2008, 06:23:17 PM
Quote from: Bob Marley, Poet and a Prophet on October 11, 2008, 06:18:34 PM
Quote from: Politico on October 11, 2008, 06:16:56 PM

It's EXTREMELY unlikely. Republicans said the same thing on October 11, 1972 and October 11, 1984, though Wink

Yeah, but in no way is this election like 1972 or 1984.

I agree, but you just never know. A 49-state landslide could happen under the perfect circumstances...

One of those circumstances is an incumbent president. This is not one of those years.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2008, 02:45:53 AM »
The demographics of this country alone do not favor a Democrat ever winning 49 states.
Logged
Boris
boris78
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,098
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -4.52

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2008, 02:57:21 AM »
Quote from: StatesRights on October 12, 2008, 02:45:53 AM
The demographics of this country alone do not favor a Democrat ever winning 49 states.

Yeah, I think a 60% Democratic popular vote victory will results in GOP wins in Utah, Idaho, Nebraska (statewide), Wyoming, and Oklahoma. Maybe Alabama and North Dakota, too?
Logged
Vsanto5
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 290
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: 3.23

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2008, 01:11:28 AM »
The following scenario is highly unlikely for Obama:



The following scenario is highly unlikely for McCain:
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.086 seconds with 11 queries.