Pew National: Tie Among Likely Voters
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Author Topic: Pew National: Tie Among Likely Voters  (Read 518 times)
cinyc
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« on: September 19, 2008, 02:40:30 AM »

Pew Research Center For the People & the Press

Likely Voters:
Obama 46%
McCain 46%
Undecided 8%

Registered Voters:
Obama 46%
McCain 44%
Undecided 10%

The poll was taken from September 9-14.  The MOE is +/- 2.5% for both LV and RV.
Poll link: http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/450.pdf
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I don't know what the more professional poll watchers think about the accuracy of Pew, but to me, the most interesting part are the demographic breakdowns.  Because the sample size of the poll is huge (2500+), even many of the subsambles have fairly low MOEs.  The religion subsamples are interesting:



Whoever wins the Catholic vote usually wins the election.  Obama is ahead by 1 - but McCain is making headway.  McCain also shored up support among Evangelicals, most likely due to the Palin pick.

According to Pew, 27% of the electorate are swing voters - those who are leaning toward a candidate, might vote for the other candidate or are undecided.  Here's a partisan breakdown of those swing voters:



As usual, Independents are the most likely to swing.  Moderate/liberal Republicans are second - but McCain has made very good headway in decreasing the Republican swing vote since August.

Another other interesting question Pew asks is a word association game - what's the one word that  best describes a particular candidate:




"Inexperienced" is the top word participants used to describe both Obama AND Palin.  But many more people used it to describe Obama than Palin.

There's a lot more at the link.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2008, 02:44:10 AM »

Cool poll, and fun extensive sub-samples because of the sample size.  Still pretty decent MoEs, but beggars can't be choosers.

Alas, already out-of-date.  Then again, a poll held yesterday may be out-of-date by tomorrow, in the current climate.  Does say a lot about the Palin pick.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2008, 02:45:39 AM »

Pew is reasonable, but not THAT respected.  This is by far the coolest part of the poll.  Note the number of "positive" terms on both sides of the table versus negative terms.   This is how you know messaging has worked or failed.  I dig this one graphic a lot:


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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2008, 09:26:02 AM »

One of the things the word association lists point out to me is the generational gap highlighted in both tickets. There are lots of old vs young descriptors, and if you notice each ticket pairs someone born before the end of WWII with someone born in the 1960's. The immediate post war generation of boomers with the Clintons, Gore and GW Bush are missing. So are the politicians born in the 1950's like Huckabee and Edwards. I wonder if the age distinctions would have been more blurred if either campaign included a 50-something candidate on the ticket.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2008, 09:30:49 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2008, 09:32:27 AM by Go Yankees! »

I love PEW's polls, although they are usually dated as soon as they are released.

Good stuff regardless.
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