Has Obama already lost the "Money Battle?"

[J. J.]

The FEC has posted the official numbers on fund raising:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$65,837,809  8/31/08 Obama

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $83,547,869

While the federal funding went in after the deadline of 8/31/08 it was only about 2-3 days after that deadline.  Including it, Obama is at about a $107 Million behind.  Now Obama does raise more money per month (about $30 Million more in August), but can he and the DNC raise roughly $107 Million more than the RNC between September 1 and Election Day.

Money does not equal votes, but it helps.

[??????????]

Lunars arrival in 3,2,1......

[J. J.]

Lunars arrival in 3,2,1......

Probably not, The FEC has posted the numbers, and Lunar doesn't want to be burned again. 

[agcatter]

No, but money won't be the big advantage for Obama that the MSM wrote about in July when Obama opted out of public finance.  He blew millions in red states during the summer that he can't win and is still spending like crazy and isn't raising the amounts talked about in the summer.  Both sides will have roughly the same amont to spend for the next 6 wks.

McCain has enough to compete and that wasn't the story line during the summer.

Money won't be the deciding factor.

[The Vorlon]

The FEC has posted the official numbers on fund raising:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$65,837,809  8/31/08 Obama

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $83,547,869

While the federal funding went in after the deadline of 8/31/08 it was only about 2-3 days after that deadline.  Including it, Obama is at about a $107 Million behind.  Now Obama does raise more money per month (about $30 Million more in August), but can he and the DNC raise roughly $107 Million more than the RNC between September 1 and Election Day.

Money does not equal votes, but it helps.

A couple points...

Firstly, RNC money is not quite as good as campaign mopmey.. there are some restrictions - if you are clever you can mostly get around those, but not completelyt.

I would say an RNC dollar is worth maybe $0.80 versus an actual hard dollar in the campaugns coffers.

Secondly, Democratic candidates at the House and Senate level are (generally speaking) in better shape than their GOP rivals, a lot of this (GOTV for example) money will also help Obama.

Those two points being made, the McCain folks have enough money to deploy resources where they need to.  Money will not decide this thing.

[J. J.]

No, but money won't be the big advantage for Obama that the MSM wrote about in July when Obama opted out of public finance.  He blew millions in red states during the summer that he can't win and is still spending like crazy and isn't raising the amounts talked about in the summer.  Both sides will have roughly the same amont to spend for the next 6 wks.

McCain has enough to compete and that wasn't the story line during the summer.

Money won't be the deciding factor.

It could $20-$40 M gap.  I honestly don't know if that will make a difference.

[J. J.]

A couple points...

Firstly, RNC money is not quite as good as campaign mopmey.. there are some restrictions - if you are clever you can mostly get around those, but not completelyt.

I would say an RNC dollar is worth maybe $0.80 versus an actual hard dollar in the campaugns coffers.

Even assuming that, can Obama/DNC out raise the RNC by 80 million in between September 1 and Election Day?  They didn't in August, when I'd expect the gap to be less.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Doesn't the RNC also have to bail out the NRCC and the NRSC?

[Sbane]

Doesn't the RNC also have to bail out the NRCC and the NRSC?

And not to mention the high amount of spending that will be required to hold off a complete takeover of the democrats in the congress. Republicans seem to be ignoring that RNC will have to spend money on that too. I think they will spend a lot on GOTV though, which should help Mccain as well as their senators and congressman.

[J. J.]

Doesn't the RNC also have to bail out the NRCC and the NRSC?

That's the 80%.  Even with that, Obama has to out raise the RNC by $80 Million between 9/1 and Election Day.

[J. J.]

Doesn't the RNC also have to bail out the NRCC and the NRSC?

And not to mention the high amount of spending that will be required to hold off a complete takeover of the democrats in the congress. Republicans seem to be ignoring that RNC will have to spend money on that too. I think they will spend a lot on GOTV though, which should help Mccain as well as their senators and congressman.

That's part of the reason I'm counting the DNC in the mix.

[Sbane]

Doesn't the RNC also have to bail out the NRCC and the NRSC?

And not to mention the high amount of spending that will be required to hold off a complete takeover of the democrats in the congress. Republicans seem to be ignoring that RNC will have to spend money on that too. I think they will spend a lot on GOTV though, which should help Mccain as well as their senators and congressman.

That's part of the reason I'm counting the DNC in the mix.

Why not count the NRCC,NRSC,DNCC,DNSC as well? I remember seeing somewhere the democrats had a huge advantage there. I might be wrong though.

[Tender Branson]

The FEC has posted the official numbers on fund raising:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$65,837,809  8/31/08 Obama

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $83,547,869

While the federal funding went in after the deadline of 8/31/08 it was only about 2-3 days after that deadline.  Including it, Obama is at about a $107 Million behind.  Now Obama does raise more money per month (about $30 Million more in August), but can he and the DNC raise roughly $107 Million more than the RNC between September 1 and Election Day.

Money does not equal votes, but it helps.

McCain had 27 Mio. cash on hand, not 37 Mio.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00430470/363587/

Obama had 77 Mio. cash on hand, not 66 Mio.

Both campaigns will have roughly 300 Mio. to spend from Sept. 1 on ...

[J. J.]

The FEC has posted the official numbers on fund raising:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$65,837,809  8/31/08 Obama

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $83,547,869

While the federal funding went in after the deadline of 8/31/08 it was only about 2-3 days after that deadline.  Including it, Obama is at about a $107 Million behind.  Now Obama does raise more money per month (about $30 Million more in August), but can he and the DNC raise roughly $107 Million more than the RNC between September 1 and Election Day.

Money does not equal votes, but it helps.

McCain had 27 Mio. cash on hand, not 37 Mio.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00430470/363587/

Obama had 77 Mio. cash on hand, not 66 Mio.

Both campaigns will have roughly 300 Mio. to spend from Sept. 1 on ...

I check the FEC site for  8/31 and McCain had $36.5 M COH

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+P80002801

You are right on Obam, his report still isn't up!  Sorry.  I'll wait for the Obama numbers

[Tender Branson]

The FEC has posted the official numbers on fund raising:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$65,837,809  8/31/08 Obama

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $83,547,869

While the federal funding went in after the deadline of 8/31/08 it was only about 2-3 days after that deadline.  Including it, Obama is at about a $107 Million behind.  Now Obama does raise more money per month (about $30 Million more in August), but can he and the DNC raise roughly $107 Million more than the RNC between September 1 and Election Day.

Money does not equal votes, but it helps.

McCain had 27 Mio. cash on hand, not 37 Mio.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00430470/363587/

Obama had 77 Mio. cash on hand, not 66 Mio.

Both campaigns will have roughly 300 Mio. to spend from Sept. 1 on ...

I check the FEC site for  8/31 and McCain had $36.5 M COH

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+P80002801

You are right on Obam, his report still isn't up!  Sorry.  I'll wait for the Obama numbers

Ah ok, your report uses a few compliance funds and McCain's leftover money from 2000. That's why there's a 10 Mio. difference. Does Obama have similar funds ?

[J. J.]

Ah ok, your report uses a few compliance funds and McCain's leftover money from 2000. That's why there's a 10 Mio. difference. Does Obama have similar funds ?

Looking at the dates, some of the "compliance funds" look like they are from prior campaigns (2000). One closed out in 2002 with about a $200 K.  balance One is for $26 M and one for $10 M, but they are current.  The $10 M one, might have gone to those state committees.

Obama only has one fund.

[J. J.]

Here is the corrected Obama number:

$77,404,118 COH 8/31/08

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+P80003338

So here is what they have:

Cash On Hand

$36,579,532  8/31/08  McCain

$76,467,053  8/31/08  RNC

Subtotal:

113,046,585

$84,100,000 9/3?/08  Federal Funds

Total:  191,146,585 

$ $77,404,118 COH 8/31/08

$17,737,060  8/31/08 DNC

Total:  $95,141,178

Straight Difference:  $96,005,407

This doesn't take into account money raised or spent by McCain in the first several days of September.  (It looks like the some of McCain's money was also transferred to state committees in September.)

[Bacon King]

Keep in mind the RNC will have to shore up the NRCC and NRSC, both of which are IIRC lagging significantly behind their Democratic counterparts.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind the RNC will have to shore up the NRCC and NRSC, both of which are IIRC lagging significantly behind their Democratic counterparts.

Even with that, it is still a sizable gap.  Do you actually have a comparison?

[Tender Branson]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

[J. J.]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

Not a lot in the Senate and but about $40 M.  The question is, how much "shoring up."

The Vorlon figured an 80/20 split.  That would make it an $86 M gap.

[Bacon King]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

Not a lot in the Senate and but about $40 M.  The question is, how much "shoring up."

The Vorlon figured an 80/20 split.  That would make it an $86 M gap.

I think you are taking Vorlon's "eighty cent" comment out of context; he was referring the effectiveness of using the RNC money directly for McCain after maneuvering through bureaucratic limitations and whatnot, not the percentage of the total RNC load he expected to be used on Congressional stuff.

[J. J.]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

Not a lot in the Senate and but about $40 M.  The question is, how much "shoring up."

The Vorlon figured an 80/20 split.  That would make it an $86 M gap.

I think you are taking Vorlon's "eighty cent" comment out of context; he was referring the effectiveness of using the RNC money directly for McCain after maneuvering through bureaucratic limitations and whatnot, not the percentage of the total RNC load he expected to be used on Congressional stuff.

 

There is not of bureaucratic difference between the McCain campaign getting a check and the RNC getting a check.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

Not a lot in the Senate and but about $40 M.  The question is, how much "shoring up."

The Vorlon figured an 80/20 split.  That would make it an $86 M gap.

I think you are taking Vorlon's "eighty cent" comment out of context; he was referring the effectiveness of using the RNC money directly for McCain after maneuvering through bureaucratic limitations and whatnot, not the percentage of the total RNC load he expected to be used on Congressional stuff.

 

There is not of bureaucratic difference between the McCain campaign getting a check and the RNC getting a check.

That statement doesn't even make any sense.

What he meant is RNC money is not as effective for McCain and is worth about $.80 of a dollar directly in McCain's campaign. The statement had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the RNC's work in Congressional elections.

[J. J.]

Do you actually have a comparison?

End August cash-on-hand numbers:

DSCC - 33.7 Mio. $
NRSC - 26.8 Mio. $

DCCC - 54.0 Mio. $
NRCC - 14.4 Mio. $

Not a lot in the Senate and but about $40 M.  The question is, how much "shoring up."

The Vorlon figured an 80/20 split.  That would make it an $86 M gap.

I think you are taking Vorlon's "eighty cent" comment out of context; he was referring the effectiveness of using the RNC money directly for McCain after maneuvering through bureaucratic limitations and whatnot, not the percentage of the total RNC load he expected to be used on Congressional stuff.

 

There is not of bureaucratic difference between the McCain campaign getting a check and the RNC getting a check.

That statement doesn't even make any sense.

What he meant is RNC money is not as effective for McCain and is worth about $.80 of a dollar directly in McCain's campaign. The statement had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the RNC's work in Congressional elections.

BRTD, I doubt if there are "bureaucratic limitations and whatnot" between a donation to McCain and to the RNC, at least that would account for 20% of the donation.  The reporting requirements are the same.