2012 -- Obama vs. Burr (Maps please)

[JSojourner]

President Barack Obama and Joe Biden against Senator Richard Burr and Governor John Hoeven.

Maps if you please...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama/Obama:

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama/Obama:

This map can't be the outcome of all the elections.


Senator Burr is actually a good friend of my father and his girlfriend. She's very close with his wife, and Richard and I attended the same college.

Anyway, I can tell you Burr was in the running for a while for the VP and is very popular in North Carolina and in Washington. Whether that means he'll run for President in the future remains to be seen. He'll need to defeat the curse that has plagued the seat he occupies for a while.

But the map all depends on how Obama does as President. I doubt either McCain or Obama will have a successful term considering how bad things are worldwide right now.

Assuming Obama has a weak first term and really does nothing memorable, I bet we see this in 2012. Keep in mind if McCain has the same mediocre term that Obama has, which he very well could, it would be a landslide in the other direction. With the war over by 2012, I think we could be in for a reallignment in which many of the Northeastern Industrial states move toward the GOP while the west becomes more Democrat. I don't think the current map trends we see now will hold up much longer as issues change.

New Mexico is a tossup as always as Burr is very pro-immigration. But really, it all depends on how Obama fares in his first term as to whether Burr can actually win.

[KeyKeeper]

Obama/Obama:

This map can't be the outcome of all the elections.


Senator Burr is actually a good friend of my father and his girlfriend. She's very close with his wife, and Richard and I attended the same college.

Anyway, I can tell you Burr was in the running for a while for the VP and is very popular in North Carolina and in Washington. Whether that means he'll run for President in the future remains to be seen. He'll need to defeat the curse that has plagued the seat he occupies for a while.

But the map all depends on how Obama does as President. I doubt either McCain or Obama will have a successful term considering how bad things are worldwide right now.

Assuming Obama has a weak first term and really does nothing memorable, I bet we see this in 2012. Keep in mind if McCain has the same mediocre term that Obama has, which he very well could, it would be a landslide in the other direction. With the war over by 2012, I think we could be in for a reallignment in which many of the Northeastern Industrial states move toward the GOP while the west becomes more Democrat. I don't think the current map trends we see now will hold up much longer as issues change.

New Mexico is a tossup as always as Burr is very pro-immigration. But really, it all depends on how Obama fares in his first term as to whether Burr can actually win.

To, bad he won't win re-elect in 2010...

[JSojourner]

The more I read about and from Burr, the more I respect him.  While I clearly disagree with most of his positions, he's more like a Richard Lugar or a Thad Cochran conservative.  He hasn't gone down the "foaming at the mouth", "my opponents hate America" route that someone like Saxby Chambliss embodies.

Plus, Burr has the southern thing going for him...without coming off like a bumpkin.

I added John Hoeven to the ticket because I just have a strong hunch he is going to be sought after at the national level.  I am not sure if he'll run for Congress or Senate first.  But his popularity is sky high and he's another extremely conservative guy -- without the mean streak. I know he's just a small state governor, but so is Sarah Palin.  And so was Bill Clinton.

The question is, does Burr want higher office?  AH Duke, have any inside scoop on that?  Or would he be more of a cabinet level guy?

[auburntiger]

Burr is a good guy, but he's destined for defeat.  It's really his fault.  He knew the seat was cursed when he first ran for it.

How can you predict what 2010 races will look like? If Obama's elected and he does poorly or even mediocre, we're due for the next cycle of a good/decent GOP year.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The more I read about and from Burr, the more I respect him.  While I clearly disagree with most of his positions, he's more like a Richard Lugar or a Thad Cochran conservative.  He hasn't gone down the "foaming at the mouth", "my opponents hate America" route that someone like Saxby Chambliss embodies.

Plus, Burr has the southern thing going for him...without coming off like a bumpkin.

I added John Hoeven to the ticket because I just have a strong hunch he is going to be sought after at the national level.  I am not sure if he'll run for Congress or Senate first.  But his popularity is sky high and he's another extremely conservative guy -- without the mean streak. I know he's just a small state governor, but so is Sarah Palin.  And so was Bill Clinton.

The question is, does Burr want higher office?  AH Duke, have any inside scoop on that?  Or would he be more of a cabinet level guy?

I do know he was in the running for McCain's VP for a while and he did want the job. He's a big ally of McCain and we'd get updates from Richard's wife. He was eliminated from the running in May but I think he was on the final 6 or so.

I don't know if he will want to run for President one day or not. I really like him and he's a man you can respect. He's a conservative but, like you said, he doesn't come off as a far right extremist. He could win if he ran. I think the American people would grow to like him.

Burr is a good guy, but he's destined for defeat.  It's really his fault.  He knew the seat was cursed when he first ran for it.

How can you predict what 2010 races will look like? If Obama's elected and he does poorly or even mediocre, we're due for the next cycle of a good/decent GOP year.

The seat he currently occupies is "cursed." The person holding it hasn't been reelected since Sam Ervin retired in 1974. They've either been defeated or retired (Edwards held this seat). He can beat the curse, especially if the environment is more favorable to the GOP in 2010, which it undoubtedly should be. Dole is running even or slightly behind Hagan in this toxic environment, and Burr is much more popular than she is.

[TomC]

1. What's unemployment at summer 2012?
2. What's the Dow at?
3. How many troops are in Iraq and Afghanistan (and that pesky little country in between)?
4. Did Congress go GOP in 2010?

[pbrower2a]

The more I read about and from Burr, the more I respect him.  While I clearly disagree with most of his positions, he's more like a Richard Lugar or a Thad Cochran conservative.  He hasn't gone down the "foaming at the mouth", "my opponents hate America" route that someone like Saxby Chambliss embodies.

Plus, Burr has the southern thing going for him...without coming off like a bumpkin.

I added John Hoeven to the ticket because I just have a strong hunch he is going to be sought after at the national level.  I am not sure if he'll run for Congress or Senate first.  But his popularity is sky high and he's another extremely conservative guy -- without the mean streak. I know he's just a small state governor, but so is Sarah Palin.  And so was Bill Clinton.

The question is, does Burr want higher office?  AH Duke, have any inside scoop on that?  Or would he be more of a cabinet level guy?

Bill Clinton may have been from a small state in electoral votes, but he was from one of the politically-homogeneous regions in America: the Inland South. Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia... that's 30 electoral votes right there. Because Arkansas has obvious affinities to southern Missouri (enough to swing Missouri from GOP to Democratic) and northern Louisiana (likewise), that's another 20.  That's fifty electoral votes right there -- which is bigger than any state other than California. Bill Clinton is the last Democratic nominee to win any of those states.

New England, for example, comprises only 34 electoral votes.   

[RIP Robert H Bork]

How does the economy (and everything else) go in 2012? Without that I can not say who wins, though I can say that I would vote for Burr.

[pbrower2a]

How does the economy (and everything else) go in 2012? Without that I can not say who wins, though I can say that I would vote for Burr.

Aside from the presence or absence of crippling scandals, isn't that the only question that most of us have in mind? Obama wins if the economy is going well or is going in the right direction no matter who runs against him. I wouldn't ignore scandals, especially sexual scandals; Obama has less leeway on a sex scandal than Bill Clinton for obvious reasons. For Obama "live boy or dead woman" has an obvious extension.  Hint: she has little melanin.

[Tender Branson]

1. What's unemployment at summer 2012?
2. What's the Dow at?
3. How many troops are in Iraq and Afghanistan (and that pesky little country in between)?
4. Did Congress go GOP in 2010?

I`ll try to answer it for a Mid-2012-bump:

1. 6.4%
2. 12.359
3. 5.000 in Iraq and about 40.000 in Afghanistan, probably 20-100 undercover agents in Iran
4. Democrats will have more than 60 seats in the Senate, but will lose seats in the House.

[Lunar]

4. Did Congress go GOP in 2010?

That'd be pretty epic to see the GOP gain 10 seats in the Senate in 2010.   In addition to holding five open seats and not having Specter switch parties and win, they'd need to beat Dodd, Gillibrand, Benne, Reid, and Burris.  And then they'd need to have Inouye retire and have Lingle beat a credible Democratic challenger, of which there are many in Hawaii.  And then they'd need to beat Feingold, Lincoln, Dorgan, and.. Biden Jr.?