possible at all?

[WalterMitty]

discuss.

[Nym90]

I don't see what demographic helps Obama in IN and MO while not also being able to win him OH and PA, just to cite one example. So I'd say no.

[Ebowed]

Pennsylvania is not going to vote Republican, so no.

[TomC]

I'm having more trouble with NH and NM than Penn and Ohio. But yes, it's possible

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

with all due walter, tell us why you think it is possible, assuming you do.  I sure as hell couldn't explain this map.  So what gives?

[Aizen]

Gentlemen, this election season has been crazy. Nothing is impossible anymore!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No way that McCain takes all of NH, NM, NV, OH, and PA while losing IN.  He might be able to take any of those depending on where he concentrates his effort and where he gets lucky, but if he does poorly enough in Indiana to lose it, he can't at the same time do well enough in those five States as to take all of them.

[memphis]

Extremely improbable.

[Brittain33]

Forget the IN vote... I'm really skeptical McCain could win N.H. while losing Colorado.

[Eraserhead]

I don't know but the thought of it certainly gets me hot and bothered.

[Torie]

Of course it is reasonably possible. Not the most likely array however I would think.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Possible, but unlikely.  If McCain wins PA, he's got MO and definitly IN.

[Torie]

Possible, but unlikely.  If McCain wins PA, he's got MO and definitly IN.

I had a senior moment, and failed to notice Missouri and Indiana going Leips  red. That is not going to happen if PA goes Leips blue.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I just don't see it happening.

[exopolitician]

I just don't see it happening.

[WalterMitty]

with all due walter, tell us why you think it is possible, assuming you do.  I sure as hell couldn't explain this map.  So what gives?

i dont think it is very possible.  i was just trying to stimulate some discussion.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Of course it's possible. However, it's not at all likely. I could see it happening if the West falls under McCain's sway & Obama fails to connect with Rust Belt workers & libertarians while enjoying depressed theocon turnout. The odds of that happening at this point are really low though.

[Padfoot]

I just don't see Obama winning Missouri and losing New Mexico.  Both those states have polled fairly consistently in the opposite direction.

[big bad fab]

No, because NM is already lost for McCain, and Missouri and even Indiana would be too hard for Obama to win.

So, this one may be likelier:

McCain 277 - 261 Obama

Or even this one, to please Dem atlasians:

McCain 272 - 266 Obama

Of course, those maps are not my prediction, but they might be realistic surprises:

The Palin effect on conservatives and on blue-collar whites seem to be pretty effective in Montana, ND, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, even PA, WI and MI (but not enough in some states).
It seems to be negative on the East Coast, including Virginia, NC and Florida.
The financial crisis, if it goes deeper, may eventually be a good thing for McCain: if public worry is very high, there might be people to go back to the old McCain.

But, sure, I think Michigan is likelier to swing than PA (with its Philly suburbs and many universities). So it may be this one:

McCain 273 - 265 Obama

Or, more probably, this national tie 269-269 (even if it's not the likeliest of 269 scenarios: the likeliest is Gore states+CO).