French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

[big bad fab]

Maybe next week....
The MSM won't be interested in it, as usual.... And, for the moitions, it take more than 10 days for the PS to publish them on their site....

Hard to be a political junkie !

[big bad fab]

Aubry's campaign has just claimed victory.

Something between 50,2 and 50,4.
They seem to have only a 1000-vote lead, but it's without Nord (of course an Aubry stronghold) and Guadeloupe.

Be careful: it's Claude Bartolone, Fabius' lieutenant and well known for its spinning practices...

But a good sign is that Royal's aides are quiet now.... Rebsamen and Peillon).

[CCA]

Can someone please explain to me why people seem to loathe Royale so much?

Is it because she lost in 2005?

[Hashemite]

Can someone please explain to me why people seem to loathe Royale so much?

Is it because she lost in 2005?

Royal didn't lose anything in 2005.

The establishment hates Royal because she doesn't like them and she represents the rebel within the party that dislikes the party "elephants" (DSK, Fabius, Lang, Jospin and so forth).

Aubry's campaign has just claimed victory.

Something between 50,2 and 50,4.
They seem to have only a 1000-vote lead, but it's without Nord (of course an Aubry stronghold) and Guadeloupe.

Be careful: it's Claude Bartolone, Fabius' lieutenant and well known for its spinning practices...

But a good sign is that Royal's aides are quiet now.... Rebsamen and Peillon).

Wow. This sounds like a close race for sure.

[PGSable]

Again, results from Ouest France.

Basse Normandie
Calvados: Aubry 59.5%, turnout 60.3% (61% on Thursday)
Manche: Aubry 58.14%, turnout 59.19% (53.46% on Thursday)
Orne: Royal 64%, turnout 60.29% (down 1% from Thursday and 4% from November 6)

Bretagne
Côtes-d'Armor: no results
Finistère: Aubry 52.93%, turnout 69.40%
Ille-et-Vilaine: Royal is ahead by two votes, turnout 50.98%
Morbihan: Royal 63.20%

Pays de la Loire
Loire-Atlantique: Royal 51.99%
Maine-et-Loire: Aubry 50.85% (twelve-vote margin), turnout 53.01%, results by section
Mayenne: Royal 79.50%, turnout 67.48% (same as Thursday)
Sarthe: Royal 53%, turnout 72%
Vendée: Royal 65.15%, turnout 67.43%

[big bad fab]

Aubry's camp says 50,5.

But Royal's camp is not conceding.... David Assouline (former Trotskyite turned... royaliste!) seems to be very angry.
Royal's camp find weird that they didn't make progress in Seine-MAritime and Nord....
(But Aubry's camp may fight back by pointing at weird results in Hérault and Bouches-du-Rhône...)

Will they fight over the results ?
There isn't an electoral "judge" inside the PS: they need to all agree....

Wow. That couldn't have been worse for the PS.
With a 58% win, that would have been a "great victory for inner democracy".
Now, that's just a nasty fight and rancorous feelings for years....

You can imagine that I'm happy.
But, wait, that could be good for far-left Besancenot and big-ego Bayrou. So, the UMP should think twice: it's not so good to have the main opposition in tatters.

[big bad fab]

Manuel Valls, Royal's supporter, has said that Royal's campaign "won't let them steal the victory".....

OMG, it's Florida '00 or Washington gov. '04 !!

[Hashemite]

Manuel Valls was one of the only sane Socialists left. I see he's joined the crazy loonies now.

[Sibboleth]

Benn v Healey!

(well, no, not really. Still...)

[big bad fab]

Aubry's lead might be around 140 votes now !!

Sure, Coleman-Franken is better in terms of tightness, but the French Socialist Party isn't far behind....

It's 1:45 a.m. in France and the PS seems to be engulfed in a very bitter fight.

Valls has spoken with Bianco, Royal's chief of staff, Gaëtan Gorce, Aurélie Filipettiand he has referred to Vincent Peillon (who was inside the PS siege at the time): just to show that it's all the Royal campaign which is contesting the result.

[Hashemite]

Recount!

[PGSable]

A recount now seems guaranteed. Some of Royal's supporters are saying they will split from the PS and form a new party if Aubry wins.

[big bad fab]

Recount!

And now, one Hollande's aide talks about a 40 or 50 votes lead for Martine Aubry...

A source inside the PS has just said that Royal is negotiating with Aubry an appointment of Vincent Peillon as n°2....

EDIT: the current staff of the PS isn't able to make an official announcement because it's "extremely tight".
So, tomorrow and maybe for some days, the first secretary may be....François Hollande as caretaker !

Valls has said Royal's victory is "unavoidable".
Very disappointing to see Valls behave like one old apparatchiki or one of worst spin doctors.

Valls next Sarkozy's Housing and Urban affairs minister ?

[big bad fab]

Daniel Vaillant, an old jospinist apparatchik (and former Home Minister), who was chosen to announce official results tonight, has said it's too close to call.

I'm going to sleep a bit, it's 2:45 am here.
One more election which is still not called when I go to bed. Fed up of this.

[CCA]

I mean people are referring to Royale on this site as a 'drug addict' and other unflattering names.

Why is she so despised?

[Math]

I mean people are referring to Royale on this site as a 'drug addict' and other unflattering names.

Why is she so despised?

Because she is Royal.

Claude Bartolone said Aubry leads by 42 votes, or 0,04%...

[CCA]

Um... THat didnt really tell me, an independent observer from a non-french country with limited knowledge of French Politics why they don't like her.


Is it because she lost in the presidential election?

[Umengus]

cheating in the socialist race ? oh my god...

The pres nomination will be very very very bloody. Royal stays the favourite because the result of Aubry is a coalition: Aubry+Delanoe+Fabius+DSK+...= Royal

Don't forget that the socialist "parliament" is composed like these: 1/3 royalist, 1/4 delanoe, 1/4 Aubry and 1/5 Hamon. Clash will be easy...

[big bad fab]

"Official" results (i.e. national results announced by the present leadership, still to be validated):

Aubry 67 413 (50,02%)
Royal 67 371 (49,98%)
total suffrages exprimés 134 784

blancs et nuls 2 332

Total votes: 137 116

Royal wants to fight ("je ne vais pas me laisser faire"). She wants a new ballott on Thursday. Her political counsellor and public/personal lawyer (and former personal friend of Hollande...), Jean-Pierre Mignard, theatens to put the case in front of a public law judge ("tribunal administratif").
As I have said before, there are not any rule in the PS to solve this case, when candidates do not unanimously agree on results....

Hollande says a national committee (elected during the recent congress, based on percentages obtaines by the motions, so with "royalistes" with slightly more than 29%... so, she is not strong in this committee, even if some members from Delanoë or Hamon or Utopia or ecolo motions could gather with her supporters) will validate results on Wednesday.

Aubry rejects a new ballott and says Hollande agrees on that.

That couldn't have been worse for the PS
That couldn't have been better for Sarkozy (and Bayrou and Besancenot).
That could'nt have been funnier for political junkies.

[Sibboleth]

That couldn't have been worse for the PS

Not quite true; Royal could've been the winner by 40 votes.

[Hashemite]

Royal wants to fight ("je ne vais pas me laisser faire"). She wants a new ballott on Thursday.

Ah, "let's keep voting until you give the right answer".

Um... THat didnt really tell me, an independent observer from a non-french country with limited knowledge of French Politics why they don't like her.


Is it because she lost in the presidential election?

I said she's the anti-establishment rebel.

Then you just have to listen to her speak, and it's obvious she's not entirely stable.

[big bad fab]

That couldn't have been worse for the PS

Not quite true; Royal could've been the winner by 40 votes.

You're right, as I think Aubry would be more threatening for Sarkozy in a presidential election.

Aubry is more serious than Royal.
She can be "sold" by the MSM without all Royal's weird words and ideas that the MSM can't hide.
She is a woman (even if it's not entirely obvious when you see her...) and the French MSM desperately want a "minority" candidate to win, all the more since Obama's big win.

[Math]

The "official" results

The Excel file

But it doesn't count Nouvelle-Calédonie and Polynésie. And according to the website of the local socialist section, the first one voted heavily for Royal...

Ségolène Royal : 81,25%
Martine Aubry : 18,75 %

[Hashemite]

[Math]

After a slight correction in Moselle, Aubry leads now by only 18 votes. Jean-Marc Todeschini, Senator from Moselle, "has a spitting headache".