Worst case scenario but still a win for your candidate?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 01:31:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  Worst case scenario but still a win for your candidate?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Worst case scenario but still a win for your candidate?  (Read 1311 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 24, 2008, 01:20:46 PM »
Post what you think is the worst case scenario (but still a win) map for your candidate.





McCain - 270
Obama - 268
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,940


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2008, 01:26:09 PM »
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,955


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2008, 01:29:45 PM »


There are closer results, but I don't think they're likely, based on these assumptions:

1. We hold all Kerry states.
2. Iowa is a gimme.
3. NM will tip before Colorado.
4. NH will tip before Virginia.
5. A tie is unpredictable for Obama if McCain wins the PV.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2008, 01:47:04 PM »
To annoy Phil:



Realistically:
Logged
RJEvans
MasterRegal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2008, 01:52:43 PM »
Obama: 269-269, does not win the popular vote, House elects him as President.
McCain: Wins electoral vote, but loses the popular vote. Likely wins NH and CO in this scenario or 270-268, with Maine delivering McCain 1 electoral vote, despite losing the popular vote.

This country will revolt if the popular winner does not become President.
Logged
TomC
TCash101
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2008, 01:54:59 PM »
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2008, 01:59:42 PM »
McCain gets 270 EVs and a popular vote win. A faithless elector switches, though, and the Democratic House elects Obama in a very close and contested battle lasting numerous ballots.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2008, 04:12:27 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on September 24, 2008, 01:29:45 PM


There are closer results, but I don't think they're likely, based on these assumptions:

1. We hold all Kerry states.
2. Iowa is a gimme.
3. NM will tip before Colorado.
4. NH will tip before Virginia.
5. A tie is unpredictable for Obama if McCain wins the PV.

Uh...that's far from "worst case scenario."
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,955


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2008, 04:18:51 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 24, 2008, 04:12:27 PM
Quote from: brittain33 on September 24, 2008, 01:29:45 PM


There are closer results, but I don't think they're likely, based on these assumptions:

1. We hold all Kerry states.
2. Iowa is a gimme.
3. NM will tip before Colorado.
4. NH will tip before Virginia.
5. A tie is unpredictable for Obama if McCain wins the PV.

Uh...that's far from "worst case scenario."

It's 274-264. I then listed the reasons why I think any result between that and 269-269 is unlikely. This is the narrowest win I think we'd achieve, if we win.

If you wanted to ask "How do you think a 269-269 result or 270-268 result would look?" you could have done that. Wink

Or you could disagree with my assumptions, too, if you choose.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2008, 05:35:31 PM »
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,083
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2008, 05:41:58 PM »
The worst case scenario is a win for my candidate.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,076
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2008, 05:43:45 PM »
B33, I no longer believe NH will tip before Colorado.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,955


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2008, 07:38:12 PM »
Quote from: Torie on September 24, 2008, 05:43:45 PM
B33, I no longer believe NH will tip before Colorado.

Aha. I suspect I'm biased by past elections.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 13 queries.