MD: Rasmussen: Obama 60, McCain 37
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  MD: Rasmussen: Obama 60, McCain 37
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Author Topic: MD: Rasmussen: Obama 60, McCain 37  (Read 1199 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: September 24, 2008, 04:29:10 PM »

New Poll: Maryland President by Rasmussen on 2008-09-24

Summary: D: 60%, R: 37%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

Obama 60%

McCain 37%

Other 1%

Not Sure 3%
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2008, 04:38:08 PM »

really?  didn't think 60 was realistic here, and maybe it isn't
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2008, 04:39:16 PM »

We need to shift more of this enthusiasim to the battleground states. His leads in some of the Democratic states are becoming bloated.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2008, 04:41:25 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2008, 04:44:11 PM »

Some of the rich liberal whites and blacks in Maryland should be migrated down to Virginia.

Maryland should realistically be one of Obama's 3 or 4 best states though, unless he gets a pretty sizable boost in Illinois from home-state advantage, in which case it would still be one of his best 4 or 5.
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Hash
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2008, 04:46:48 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

Obama is approaching 60% in Iowa? News to me.
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Rowan
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2008, 04:49:25 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

Obama is approaching 60% in Iowa? News to me.

Apparently 50% is near 60%. Who knew?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2008, 04:49:25 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

Obama is approaching 60% in Iowa? News to me.

Sorry, RI, not IA.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2008, 04:54:13 PM »

Maryland has a pretty high black population as well as a lot of latte liberals in the more Northeastern areas of the state.  I've been predicted Obama to crack 60% since he got the nomination.  It should be one of his 3 or 4 best states. 
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ag
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2008, 05:05:42 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

The problem is, McCain has his own share of "close to 60" states. The latest poll from TX is McCain 57%, GA - 57%, TN - 59%, KY - 57%, AZ - 56%, SC - 58%, AL - 60%, OK - 59%, NE - 60%, UT - 65%, WY - 66%, ID - 62%. So, if anything, it could go eiter way Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2008, 05:58:02 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

The problem is, McCain has his own share of "close to 60" states. The latest poll from TX is McCain 57%, GA - 57%, TN - 59%, KY - 57%, AZ - 56%, SC - 58%, AL - 60%, OK - 59%, NE - 60%, UT - 65%, WY - 66%, ID - 62%. So, if anything, it could go eiter way Smiley

But places like Wyoming and Idaho have next to no population, while NY, CA and IL are among the biggest in the nation. Furthermore, if you compare to "traditional" results Obama seems to have gained disproportionately among safe states on either side. But I still  expect the popular vote and electoral vote to match each other more or less. If they split, I think Obama is more likely to win the PV and lose the EV though.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2008, 06:59:09 PM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

The problem is, McCain has his own share of "close to 60" states. The latest poll from TX is McCain 57%, GA - 57%, TN - 59%, KY - 57%, AZ - 56%, SC - 58%, AL - 60%, OK - 59%, NE - 60%, UT - 65%, WY - 66%, ID - 62%. So, if anything, it could go eiter way Smiley

But places like Wyoming and Idaho have next to no population, while NY, CA and IL are among the biggest in the nation. Furthermore, if you compare to "traditional" results Obama seems to have gained disproportionately among safe states on either side. But I still  expect the popular vote and electoral vote to match each other more or less. If they split, I think Obama is more likely to win the PV and lose the EV though.

Not really since Obama is running just fine in the states he needs to win. He seems to be doing above the national average in Colorado and Virginia seems to be creeping to about where Ohio and Nevada are. Also Nevada could turn out to be more democratic on election day than expected. I still think Obama has a structural advantage in the EV this season. That being said if anybody wins the PV by more than half a point, they will find some way to win the EV. Things will fall in line.
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Verily
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2008, 07:01:41 PM »

Unlikely. Maryland will be a few points stronger for Obama than Kerry, but not more than 58%.  The Eastern Shore is too Southern, and the Panhandle too Appalachian. My guess is that they oversampled suburban Republicans at the expense of the rural ones.
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2008, 11:11:05 PM »

really not to surprising.  Kerry won MD by 13 in a year Bush won nationally by 2.46%.  That put the state at approx 15.5% more Dem than the national average in 04 (15.46% to be exact)  Obama seems to be up nationally by 4-5% or so at the moment, which would put his lead in the 19-20% or so range if it is as far from the national average as it was in 04.  A 3% or so shift in Obama;s direction against the national average in MD really wouldn't surprising, considering the demographics of the state.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2008, 09:52:42 AM »

Approaching 60% in MD, NY, CA, IL, VT, CT and Iowa? He could very well lose the EC and win the PV if this pattern continues.

The problem is, McCain has his own share of "close to 60" states. The latest poll from TX is McCain 57%, GA - 57%, TN - 59%, KY - 57%, AZ - 56%, SC - 58%, AL - 60%, OK - 59%, NE - 60%, UT - 65%, WY - 66%, ID - 62%. So, if anything, it could go eiter way Smiley

But places like Wyoming and Idaho have next to no population, while NY, CA and IL are among the biggest in the nation. Furthermore, if you compare to "traditional" results Obama seems to have gained disproportionately among safe states on either side. But I still  expect the popular vote and electoral vote to match each other more or less. If they split, I think Obama is more likely to win the PV and lose the EV though.

VT and RI are hardly giants, and TX is no minnow Smiley Overall, the states I've listed as "overwhelming McCain" have 119 EV, the states Duke listed as "overwhelming Obama" have 110 EV (117 EV if you add equally safe HI and DE)
hardly much of a difference Smiley

Obama is, actually, doing miserably in recently safe Republican states (w/ a couple of notorious exceptions, like North Carolina).
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