I think Obama will really start taking off in Michigan these next few weeks. His lead is going to get bigger.
on what do you base this?
economic situation, I'd guess.
Although no way in hell does OBama get +13%.
Selzer is a great pollster, but her polls have had a pretty big Dem house effect, maybe 3-4 points. So this is more like a 9-10 point lead, not a 13-point one. Still, very reminiscent of the MI governor's race in 2006; I expect a lot of Obama's gains are coming in the Bay City/Saginaw area and in the UP (and UP-like areas in the northern LP).
M-D might be stronger than usual in Michigan than elsewhere in the North, and they're not a truly bad pollster anywhere. But their poll is out of line with everyone else. It's a bit like their Florida polls. They may be right, but it's just one poll. (Although M-D is the best in Florida while maybe just above middling in Michigan, so I would be less inclined to give the MI poll credence than the FL ones.)
