What is the 2004 equilavent of John McCain relying on PA to win the election?

[LanceMcSteel]

What state was Kerry down 10-12 points in during the last 10 days of 2004? Arkansas seems about right.

McCain has no chance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They couldn't find a better state to spread race-baiting lies in.

[Alcon]

I doubt McCain is down 10-12 points in PA, which is the operating assumption of the strategy.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I doubt McCain is down 10-12 points in PA, which is the operating assumption of the strategy.

     You're probably right. PA seems like exactly the kind of place that could suffer from the Bradley Effect.

[Lunar]

I doubt McCain is down 10-12 points in PA, which is the operating assumption of the strategy.

     You're probably right. PA seems like exactly the kind of place that could suffer from the Bradley Effect.

That is not the dominant reason he isn't 10-12%.

The polls are likely just misreading support for various reasons.

[Mr.Phips]

This would be like Kerry banking on Missouri to win the election. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

It would be like Kerry pulling out of Ohio and going for the Colorado, Nevada, Arizona trifecta (which in retrospect would probably have been better than his actual strategy)

[LanceMcSteel]

It would be like Kerry pulling out of Ohio and going for the Colorado, Nevada, Arizona trifecta (which in retrospect would probably have been better than his actual strategy)

Im not so sure, Colorado and Arizona were only quasi competitive and Nevada was a genuine battleground. But Oho was a legitimate battleground which was close to the national average.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Kerry relying on NOT FLORIDA to win the election.

Removal of all forced from Ohio to Florida in October would have won him the election.

[Cubby]

Kerry relying on NOT FLORIDA to win the election.

Removal of all forced from Ohio to Florida in October would have won him the election.

Florida was hit by 4 hurricanes in the 2004 season, and the Bush Administration was (wrongly) given credit by most Floridians for a rapid response with aid, evacuations, etc. Ohio was a better choice due to its poor economy.

They couldn't find a better state to spread race-baiting lies in.

Thats a Republican specialty. But Pennsylvania is not that state. A more racist place is Tennessee, as we saw in 2006. They don't care for miscegenation down there.

[Associate Justice PiT]

They couldn't find a better state to spread race-baiting lies in.

Thats a Republican specialty. But Pennsylvania is not that state. A more racist place is Tennessee, as we saw in 2006. They don't care for miscegenation down there.

     Of course, it still works pretty well up in PA, which is really all that matters for the candidates in this area.

[TomC]

Kerry relying on NOT FLORIDA to win the election.

Removal of all forced from Ohio to Florida in October would have won him the election.

Florida was hit by 4 hurricanes in the 2004 season, and the Bush Administration was (wrongly) given credit by most Floridians for a rapid response with aid, evacuations, etc. Ohio was a better choice due to its poor economy.

They couldn't find a better state to spread race-baiting lies in.

Thats a Republican specialty. But Pennsylvania is not that state. A more racist place is Tennessee, as we saw in 2006. They don't care for miscegenation down there.

Ford's marital status made more of a difference than his race.

[Lunar]

The equivalent is Ohio 2004 of Florida 2000,  Putting all of ones eggs into a single basket is inherently a losing strategy (if Obama can win one of OH, FL, NV, CO, or VA, he wins), but sometimes it's the best strategy available.

Just because you choose a strategy that exposes a weakness doesn't mean that there's a better decision to make.