Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« on: September 26, 2008, 04:34:30 PM » |
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« edited: October 21, 2008, 04:38:30 PM by Sam Spade »
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I figure I need to post one of these threads. This will help explain why the campaigns are spending, or are not spending where there are. Additionally, some states follow the national trend, others are more stable, and yet others move more erratically.
Basically, the race, as far as I can see it, is Obama +3. For comparison of what I see into what an even map should look like, consult my 49-49-2 Tied Election thread.
Traditional Red Swing States (i.e. where both candidates are advertising)
Colorado
Continues to swing around with the national mean, as far as I can tell. Don't believe the crappy outlier polls. There are still a reasonable number of undecideds here who appear to be flexible. As such, the campaigns are advertising there heavily and more heavily and will continue to.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +3
Florida
In comparison with Ohio, my gut tells me that there's more swing in Florida right than Ohio. Since in an even election, I suspect both Florida and Ohio will have a slight Republican bias, this is what has led the Obama campaign to push Florida more heavily than Ohio in its mind and in its advertising.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +1 (agreeing w/Rasmussen again - ugh)
Iowa
If the election gets closer, Iowa will tighten a lot more. If it stays like this, Iowa will stay like this (i.e. the large movement vis-a-vis 2004), but swing slightly Republican in the end. Still, if Obama continues to be up 3 points or so in the next couple of weeks, McCain will move his stuff out of here.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +9
Missouri
Missouri is moving with the national mean as far as I can tell, yet Obama has decreased advertising in the state. Why? Because he already started in a bad place to begin with - my national mean (49-49-2) figure would place it at M+6, and even if his place were to get better in the polls, that last 1% or 2% is going to be difficult given the complexion of the state.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +3
New Mexico
The wackiest state in the union (though Wisconsin likes to vie for that title). This is one state where I prefer to go on my own and not trust the polling. With the exceptions of 1980 and 1968 (where third-party candidates screwed up everything), the state has tracked between +5 GOP and +5 DEM of the national mean in every election held in the last half-century.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +5
Nevada
Obama is investing heavily here because there are a good bit of solid undecideds in the state and they weren't swayed to McCain post-RNC. I still don't see them swaying yet at all. Nevada is a difficult to call state for a whole host of reasons, but I'll give it to Obama right now.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +1
Ohio
As mentioned above with Florida, Ohio just simply is not moving much in Obama's direction past a certain point even with the national movement. The undecideds just simply refuse to go for him. It's quite possible that something is going on here which fits into the MSM articles. As such, even with it O+3, I would choose to give the state to McCain. It would also explain why Obama is not raising his advertising money here, in choosing between Ohio and Florida, he sees more open undecideds in Florida.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +1
Virginia
Virginia polling has been strange the past few weeks, jumping all over the place (mainly due to bad sampling). Historically, Republicans tend to underpoll slightly in Virginia a bit in federal elections and I see Obama is going there to campaign on Saturday. Considering my statement earlier that I suspect Virginia and Ohio will run about the same in this election, I'm going to give it to McCain for now.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Even
New Red Swing States (i.e. where Obama or both candidates are advertising)
Indiana
The RNC put up $100,000 in ads in the state today. Typically, (my own personal rule) is that when another candidate is polling within 5 points consistently, you put money into that state. Given the advertising being put there by Obama right now uncontested, he may be overpolling a tad. So...
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +5
Montana
Obama should be withdrawing here soon, imho. I may have the state slightly undervalued in my analysis right now, as I doubt it's going to move that much vis-a-vis national mean.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +10
North Carolina
Ah, NC. Both campaigns are advertising fairly heavily right now (but not that heavily - Michigan's still getting more per pound). A couple of points - blacks tend to overpoll in NC and if things get really bad there, you'll see at least one McCain race ploy. There is also more potential swingability towards McCain in NC than in almost any other contested state for a few reasons. In other words, if the election gets closer, NC could move more rapidly than other states.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +4
Traditional Blue Swing States (i.e. where both candidates are advertising)
Michigan
Michigan is moving with the national mean, for the most part. It's the reason why McCain/Obama were advertising and campaiging heavily here post-RNC and why everything's died down the past week or two.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +5
Minnesota
Minnesota doesn't seem to be moving as much towards Obama given the latest numbers as it should, and I'm at a lost to explain why. However, in 2004, MN appeared almost even and the DFL turnout machine performed exceptionally well.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +6
New Hampshire
New Hampshire has acted weird this whole election. First it acted heavily Obama, then it swung back to narrowly Obama and now it's swung to being a tie, although everything else is moving against McCain. The national environment beckons me to give it to Obama, however.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +2
Pennsylvania
Much like Ohio, there are just some entrenched undecideds that are not interested in moving to Obama yet, or at all. That explains the added spending by Obama and campaigning by both sides. Problem is for McCain is that the closer he gets to even nationally, the less PA will move.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +3
Wisconsin
Wisconsin always likes to stay close to the 50-50 race even if it means deviating from the national mean. It acts weird.
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: Obama +5
Key Point: Obama +3 may be just at the point of close electoral victory to large electoral landslide because the close calls in Florida/Ohio/Virginia.
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