Sam Spade Swing State Analysis - 9/26 (updated 10/21)

[angus]

Iowa
If the election gets closer, Iowa will tighten a lot more.  If it stays like this, Iowa will stay like this (i.e. the large movement vis-a-vis 2004), but swing slightly Republican in the end.  Still, if Obama continues to be up 3 points or so in the next couple of weeks, McCain will move his stuff out of here.

Sam Spade 9/26 Call:  Obama +9

I have been watching my local PBS station, assuming it will go to the debate soon, or hoping it will, so I don't have to watch it on one of the commercial networks, and the 7:30 to 8 slot was an interview with the Iowa Secretary of State, Michael Mauro.  He was asked about the swing.  Apparently in 2004, there were about 7000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than Democrats.  In 2008, there are about 102000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.  Why is that?  Mauro says it's all Obama.  Said he's been watching it--which is probably reasonable since he's the sos--and that it started to spike in the lead-up to the primary, a primary that Obama won handily.  Remember, this state has a closed caucus system, and one has to be a registered Democrat to vote for Obama in the caucus. 

I thought it was an interesting comment.  Just passing it on.

Oh, good, they're going to Jim Lehrer now for the debate.  Good Evening.

[angus]

Iowa
If the election gets closer, Iowa will tighten a lot more.  If it stays like this, Iowa will stay like this (i.e. the large movement vis-a-vis 2004), but swing slightly Republican in the end.  Still, if Obama continues to be up 3 points or so in the next couple of weeks, McCain will move his stuff out of here.

Sam Spade 9/26 Call:  Obama +9

I have been watching my local PBS station, assuming it will go to the debate soon, or hoping it will, so I don't have to watch it on one of the commercial networks, and the 7:30 to 8 slot was an interview with the Iowa Secretary of State, Michael Mauro.  He was asked about the swing.  Apparently in 2004, there were about 7000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than Democrats.  In 2008, there are about 102000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.  Why is that?  Mauro says it's all Obama.  Said he's been watching it--which is probably reasonable since he's the sos--and that it started to spike in the lead-up to the primary, a primary that Obama won handily.  Remember, this state has a closed caucus system, and one has to be a registered Democrat to vote for Obama in the caucus. 

I thought it was an interesting comment.  Just passing it on.

Oh, good, they're going to Jim Lehrer now for the debate.  Good Evening.

I don't normally like to interrupt my debate viewing, but I couldn't resist. 

McCain just lost Iowa.  Not that I thought he was going to win anyway, and not that I don't agree with him about the futility and wastefulness of the corn ethanol subsidies, but about ten seconds ago he lost any outside shot at Iowa, for good.

[angus]

I don't normally like to interrupt my debate viewing, but I couldn't resist. 

McCain just lost Iowa.  Not that I thought he was going to win anyway, and not that I don't agree with him about the futility and wastefulness of the corn ethanol subsidies, but about ten seconds ago he lost any outside shot at Iowa, for good.

I posted my reply without reading yours.  Yeah, McCain is boned in Iowa, and will now have to fight for Bible-Belt Indiana.  Unreal.

Somehow I remember you being prime Wisconsin angus beef.  Did you move?