Sam Spade Swing State Analysis - 9/26 (updated 10/21)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Indiana
The RNC put up $100,000 in ads in the state today.  Typically, (my own personal rule) is that when another candidate is polling within 5 points consistently, you put money into that state.  Given the advertising being put there by Obama right now uncontested, he may be overpolling a tad.  So...

Sam Spade 9/26 Call:  McCain +5

Make that McCain +2.  McCain attacked ethanol subsidies in the debate, hard.  I agree with him 100% on this issue, but that won't stop the continuing farmer revolt that is giving Obama a fighting chance here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't normally like to interrupt my debate viewing, but I couldn't resist. 

McCain just lost Iowa.  Not that I thought he was going to win anyway, and not that I don't agree with him about the futility and wastefulness of the corn ethanol subsidies, but about ten seconds ago he lost any outside shot at Iowa, for good.

I posted my reply without reading yours.  Yeah, McCain is boned in Iowa, and will now have to fight for Bible-Belt Indiana.  Unreal.