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| | |-+  What will be the closest Senate Race?
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Author Topic: What will be the closest Senate Race?  (Read 2671 times)
KeyKeeper
Turner22
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« on: September 29, 2008, 01:26:06 pm »
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I believe NC and OR both will be with-in 2%.
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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2008, 02:16:19 pm »
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McConnell/Lunsford. All the other competitive Senate races (Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina) break for the D's by at least two points. Maine is safely Republican and Mississippi stays with Wicker.

Hey, go big or go home.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2008, 02:22:10 pm by brittain33 »Logged
SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2008, 09:32:11 pm »
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North Carolina and I think both candidates suck.
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Sensei
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2008, 09:41:27 pm »
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OR

MN will be second. Call me crazy.
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Lief
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2008, 09:45:15 pm »
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McConnell/Lunsford. All the other competitive Senate races (Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina) break for the D's by at least two points. Maine is safely Republican and Mississippi stays with Wicker.

Hey, go big or go home.
I like this prediction, though I might switch KY with MS.
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(ready4barry)
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2008, 11:46:47 pm »
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OR probably.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2008, 03:05:55 am »
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     OR methinks, with an outside chance of NC & KY.
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2008, 07:21:20 am »
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In response to the OR predictions, I think Merkley has too much opportunity to break away from Smith because of the state's partisan lean and Smith's increasingly flailing campaign efforts.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2008, 03:57:03 pm »
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NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2008, 05:09:41 pm »
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NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

LOL
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2008, 08:34:08 pm »
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NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

And you call me stupid!!!!!!!!! You dumbass.
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benconstine
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2008, 08:44:12 pm »
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NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

Not happening, DWTL.

I say Oregon, btw.
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"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
JSojourner
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2008, 10:17:57 am »
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I think New Hampshire is going to be closer than we suspect.  I mean, like razor-thin.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2008, 02:42:36 pm »
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NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

And you call me stupid!!!!!!!!! You dumbass.
Yea, Josh you are smart because polls for a week back up slightly what you babble about Roll Eyes

It was amazing how intelligent the discussions were until you came back from your closet
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2008, 02:43:13 pm »
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Kentucky
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2008, 02:55:01 pm »
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Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2008, 08:26:12 pm »
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Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).


And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily. 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2008, 09:54:13 pm »
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Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).


And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily. 
Yes, and time's running out for Smith.  The national "experts" are generally clueless about Oregon politics. Case in point: Stu Rothenberg on the Oregon Senate race. "Yes, the Smith ads drive home the point, but they are striking many observers as the sort of late-October ad that a campaign might use as a game-changer, not the kind of TV spot that a confident incumbent would run in mid-September," wrote Rothenberg after Smith launched two ads attacking Merkley stance on crime.

Rothenberg is seemingly unaware that early voting in Oregon moves up the GOTV period by 2-3 weeks. Smith ran that ad because he's slipping among women in Clackamas and Washington Counties. Suburban women are apparently  being swayed by Merkley's focus on abortion, an issue on which Smith is outside the mainstream of Oregon opinion. Smith started defining Merkley in May, but while his ads have driven up Merkley's negatives, they've also polarized the electorate. Smith needs 15%-20% of the Democratic vote to win; he's now hovering around 15% among Democrats.

He's also antagonized his core constituency. While the conservative 3rd party candidate is unlikely to break 5%, he may win 3% ( most of which will come from Smith's right flank). These are the voters who are disgusted by Smith's association with Obama, Kerry, and local liberal Elizabeth Furse. In a tight election, those disaffected base voters could be decide the outcome.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2008, 09:14:06 am »
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Minnesota.
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
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