Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Tracking Poll Thread

[tokar]

Monday, October 13:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 38 (-1)

Where you getting this information from?  I do not see it on Muhlenberg's site.  Last day available is Oct8.

[Tender Branson]

Where you getting this information from?  I do not see it on Muhlenberg's site.  Last day available is Oct8.

http://www.politickerpa.com/danh/2134/muhlenberg-tracking-poll-obama-14

Wednesday, October 15

Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 38 (nc)

[tokar]

Where you getting this information from?  I do not see it on Muhlenberg's site.  Last day available is Oct8.

http://www.politickerpa.com/danh/2134/muhlenberg-tracking-poll-obama-14

Wednesday, October 15

Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 38 (nc)

lol...

I know this is a 4-day running average, but if McCain's heavy campaigning in PA had any effect then the margin should go DOWN not up...

[tokar]

Uh oh...

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

October 16 - Obama+16

Obama - 53 (+1)
McCain - 37 (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Chart:

[Rowan]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

[Tender Branson]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

And you know this because ... ?

[Eraserhead]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

And you know this because ... ?

He's magical

[J. J.]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

And you know this because ... ?

He's magical

Probably less "magical" than this poll.

[tokar]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

So with 45%, it would leave Obama with 55%, and thus make PA a +10 for Obama.  I'll take it.

[Tender Branson]

Friday, October 17

Obama: 53 (nc)
McCain: 39 (+2)

[tokar]

Friday, October 17

Obama: 53 (nc)
McCain: 39 (+2)

Its hard for me to believe that Obama's numbers will improve anymore...53 is pretty high, and 8% undecided is pretty low...

[Eraserhead]

Friday, October 17

Obama: 53 (nc)
McCain: 39 (+2)

McSurge!!!11

[Brittain33]

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has dropped to 5% on 538.com's list of "tipping point" states, tied with the Swingy McSwing mid-point swing states of New Jersey and West Virginia.

[tokar]

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has dropped to 5% on 538.com's list of "tipping point" states, tied with the Swingy McSwing mid-point swing states of New Jersey and West Virginia.

Deservedly so...
With all the Kerry states expected to go to Obama, with McCain capitulating Iowa, and New Mexico looking overwhelmingly blue, it puts Obama at 264EV.  Any one of those TippingPoint states pushes him over the top.
I presume they are ranked by their current projected margin of victory.

Having reached 100% chance of going to Obama on Election-Projection.net, PA has been dropped from the battlerank listing.

[Wall St. Wiz]

What kind of record does Muhlenberg have? I just can't see the state going for Obama by 15 points. 

[Rowan]

Saturday-October 18, 2008
Obama 52%(-1)
McCain 39%(nc)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday-October 18, 2008
Obama 52%(-1)
McCain 39%(nc)

MCSurge is slowing, but it could still be a tied race the weekend before the election ...

[MasterJedi]

What kind of record does Muhlenberg have?

For their D3 football program they are undefeated.

[tokar]

What kind of record does Muhlenberg have? I just can't see the state going for Obama by 15 points. 

I think polls are only valid projections if they are at maximum only one week old.  Any older and they are kind of irrelevant for making good projections.  With that said, on to their record:

2004 Presidential polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Not bad considering PA went to Kerry by around 5 points, but the polls were a little too old for any pollster to say they actually made a good projection.

2006 Senatorial polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Meh...got the trend right (Casey strong win) but Casey won by over 17 points.

2006 Gubernatorial polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2006/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Not bad...Rendell won by over 20 points.

2008 Democratic Primary: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Spot on...problem is that the primary was 3 weeks away, so you can't use this as a basis for projecting the PA result on 4/22.



So in sum this is what I'd say about Muhlenberg polling:
They are good at getting trends right (4 for 4 in this case), and looking strictly at the numbers they got for the polls they conducted I'd say they were 3 for 4.  Problem is that in non-tracking type polls, they haven't shown a record of polling enough to be used as a basis for projecting the margin of victory.
However, a tracking poll is meant to track trend, not so much exact numbers.  And since Muhlenberg has been pretty good at getting trends correct, I think their tracking poll is a good indication of the current state of things in PA (strong Obama).

(If for example SurveyUSA was doing a tracking poll, I'd be a little weary of the trend they show.  They always seem to be an outlier when it comes to their state polling)

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - October 19, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 40% (+1)

[J. J.]

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

[tokar]

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

What difference does the margin make?  10pts, 1pt, 0.1pt?  All margins = all or none victory for either candidate (which is how it should have been in the DEM primaries.  Had it been that way we would have had Clinton nominated).

Bush won Florida by 00.01%in 2000...and he won all 25 EV's...and the presidency.


I couldn't care less what the margin of victory is in PA.  I care about who wins it and the polls show that Obama is almost certain to be the victor.
Obviously a larger margin will show the pundits on the news channels that PA is leaning more and more democratic as the years pass, which is definitely nice, and that certainly changes the dynamic of the 2010 Senatorial race...but I care about "what have you done for me lately", and I just want to see PA is in the democratic column come November 5th.

[Tender Branson]

Monday - October 20, 2008

Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 41% (+1)

[pepper11]

Tuesday- October 20, 2008

Obama 52% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)