Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 51 (+1)
McCain - 39 (-1)

Time for McCain to abandon PA ...

Not based on a Muhlenberg poll.

[J. J.]

Does anyone actually give any credibility to this poll?

If this was a Franklin and Marshall poll, I'd give it a great deal of weight.  Other uni polls for PA, I'd give very little weight.

[J. J.]

Friday, October 10:

Obama - 50% (-1)
McCain - 39% (+1)

This is not a great poll.

[J. J.]

Isn't that exactly where the other polls have the state?

No, this just the gap closing a bit.  I don't think this is a great poll, even it it does show some tightening.

[J. J.]

Tokay, out of your list, you have two polls of any real consequence.  Even some of the poorer ones are out of the MOE.

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.



 

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

And don't confuse stating that a poll is bad with stating that the result will be different. 

Judging from Obama's campaign activities in, oh, the last six hours, he is worried about PA, i.e. 4 stops within five miles of my house.

[J. J.]

Its the remaining Kerry state that McCain is actually pouring money into in serious fashion.  It would be stupid for him not to campaign there.

On another note, he is campaigning in the 2nd most democratic city behind New York City (according to 2004 election results).  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

If this was really good, Obama wouldn't be spending his time trying to run up the vote in Phila, period.  I hate to tell you this, but we elect by electoral votes.  Obama's only reason to campaign in Phila is to secure Pennsylvania.  No others.

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I know you are having a difficult time understanding this, but I will try to explain this to to you.  We are not talking about Obama win or losing only if this poll accurately, that means really, tells us if how well Obama is doing in PA.

[J. J.]

If you havent realized this over the past 2 elections, it is the way to win PA.  Win the 5 Philadelphia counties, win the Pittsburgh counties and you win PA.  And considering the central-PA counties are also in the tank as evidenced by the April Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1 ) because of the young voter presence, it is impossible to think McCain has any chance whatsoever.

You have not realized that if Obama were really up by ten points, he would not have to worry about turnout specifically in Philadelphia.

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I doubt if I'll be doing a resume for Phil English any time soon.

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Bush's margin increased in 2004 and Obama's track record is not particularly good here. 

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I'm also well aware that if PA were +10 points up, Obama wouldn't need to be in the state.

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Ah, they don't.  They show about 8 points nationally.  That isn't exceptionally solid, unless it holds.  So why is Obama, if everything is fine in PA, coming into PA?  If he wants to go to a close state, why not FL, VA, or GA.  Why is campaigning so strongly in PA, if everything is fine?

[J. J.]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

He's claiming voting Catholics tend to be more conservative in Phila.

[J. J.]

You have not realized that if Obama were really up by ten points, he would not have to worry about turnout specifically in Philadelphia.

Bush's margin increased in 2004 and Obama's track record is not particularly good here. 

I'm also well aware that if PA were +10 points up, Obama wouldn't need to be in the state.

Ah, they don't.  They show about 8 points nationally.  That isn't exceptionally solid, unless it holds.  So why is Obama, if everything is fine in PA, coming into PA?  If he wants to go to a close state, why not FL, VA, or GA.  Why is campaigning so strongly in PA, if everything is fine?

Dude, the only reason Obama is actually campaigning hard in PA is because McCain is stubbornly continuing to campaign hard.  And, the majority of that campaigning is coming in the Philadelphia area, mostly deep within the city itself (Palin in NE Philly, Palin at the Flyers game, Palin for a jog in an Eagles jersey, etc. etc.).  Obama would be a fool to a) campaign well outside Philly given McCain's focus on campaigning in the city, and b) not campaign in PA all considering PA is the last Kerry state McCain is actually maintaining a campaign.

Tokar, under your logic, Obama should start campaigning in MA it McCain goes there, and should go to DC if McCain is there.

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Except, while the campaign pulled, the RNC hasn't.

This is a university poll, far from the best university poll in PA, so that alone should raise questions.  That Obama is trying to boost himself in Phila, and Biden in Scranton is an indication that his own polling is telling something different.

[J. J.]

So what?  So what if its a university poll.  Who determines that University poll is bad?

The bulk of the posters here, including our one professional pollster.

Most of us look at track record and if the pollster has a good record.

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If you would have read my posts, you would have noticed that I questioned that poll beccause] it was a university poll.

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I just answered that question.

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Absolutely with Suffolk.  Q is good in some states, but not PA.

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It really seems that you cannot comprehend what I'm saying.  Re-read it slowly, or have someone read it to you.

[J. J.]

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

And you know this because ... ?

He's magical

Probably less "magical" than this poll.

[J. J.]

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

[J. J.]

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

What difference does the margin make?  10pts, 1pt, 0.1pt?  All margins = all or none victory for either candidate (which is how it should have been in the DEM primaries.  Had it been that way we would have had Clinton nominated).

Bush won Florida by 00.01%in 2000...and he won all 25 EV's...and the presidency.


I couldn't care less what the margin of victory is in PA.  I care about who wins it and the polls show that Obama is almost certain to be the victor.
Obviously a larger margin will show the pundits on the news channels that PA is leaning more and more democratic as the years pass, which is definitely nice, and that certainly changes the dynamic of the 2010 Senatorial race...but I care about "what have you done for me lately", and I just want to see PA is in the democratic column come November 5th.

Well, I am talking about how well this poll describes the result.  I've been predicting that ultimately Obama would win the state since mid September. 

[J. J.]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

[J. J.]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

Its not about margin.  Its about trends...

Trends show heavy Obama lean.

Actually, it has shown very little movement.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - October 29, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

Tightening!

Bad poll, but F & M is troubling.

[J. J.]

Bad news for J.J. and Keystone Phil:

Grow up, dude. You're creeping towards troll territory.

OK ...

There's good news for you today:

Friday - October 31, 2008

Obama 53% (-1)
McCain 43% (+2)

This isn't good news because this is bad on so many levels.