Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Tracking Poll Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can you imagine Phil's reaction if McCain actually did abandon PA? LOL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

No. But you seem to love Franklin Marshall.

Whatever the case, if Obama is up 6-7 points nationwide, he's up by more than 1.5 points in Pennsylvania. It's just common sense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

Ok so why isn't it that you don't pick up on the idea that it's the white working class that won't vote for him because of race? Oh, I know why! You just want to be able to say that Catholics are racists.

You are a very, very, very ignorant, dumb, douchebag.

Who is the white working class in my state supporting? Let's check the results of NE Minneapolis and St. Louis County after the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

He's claiming voting Catholics tend to be more conservative in Phila.

That's not what he's claiming at all with all his ancedotes about people who've never voted for Republicans supposedly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

Ok so why isn't it that you don't pick up on the idea that it's the white working class that won't vote for him because of race? Oh, I know why! You just want to be able to say that Catholics are racists.

You are a very, very, very ignorant, dumb, douchebag.

Who is the white working class in my state supporting? Let's check the results of NE Minneapolis and St. Louis County after the election.

Do you understand logic? Like...at all?

Let's check who the Catholics in MA and RI are supporting! Looks like Catholics aren't racist!

Massachusetts 2004 exit poll:

Catholics:
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Protestants:
Kerry 60
Bush 39

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

Ok so why isn't it that you don't pick up on the idea that it's the white working class that won't vote for him because of race? Oh, I know why! You just want to be able to say that Catholics are racists.

You are a very, very, very ignorant, dumb, douchebag.

Who is the white working class in my state supporting? Let's check the results of NE Minneapolis and St. Louis County after the election.

Do you understand logic? Like...at all?

Let's check who the Catholics in MA and RI are supporting! Looks like Catholics aren't racist!

Massachusetts 2004 exit poll:

Catholics:
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Protestants:
Kerry 60
Bush 39

...

And what does that have to do with the 2008 results and race? How are Catholics there going to vote this year, BRTD?

I love it when it becomes so obvious that you've lost an argument! 

It'll vote for Obama, and the Protestants will vote more for him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'll vote for Obama, and the Protestants will vote more for him.

That's great that they'll vote for him by more. Now let's see - who will be more strongly for Obama (since this seems to be the ultimate gauge of racism these days) - southern Catholics or southern Protestants?

Southern Protestants of course, considering almost all blacks are as such and few are Catholic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'll vote for Obama, and the Protestants will vote more for him.

That's great that they'll vote for him by more. Now let's see - who will be more strongly for Obama (since this seems to be the ultimate gauge of racism these days) - southern Catholics or southern Protestants?

Southern Protestants of course, considering almost all blacks are as such and few are Catholic.

So white Protestants are racists. Thanks for the insight!

Yes, and they are most Southern Baptists, not members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil is basically saying that believing the polls of PA makes you a hack and any non-hack believes the race is much closer than all the polls show.