Ok, so just how bad can it get for Republicans on Election Night??

[tokar]

How bad?  It can be back-breaking bad...thats how bad.

President:

Very good night = McCain wins with a larger margin than in 2004
Good night = McCain wins with the same margin as in 2004
Fair night = McCain wins with a smaller margin than in 2004
Bad night = Obama wins with a small margin of victory (+5-30)
Very bad night = Obama wins with a large margin of victory (+31-89)
Back-breaking bad night = Obama wins with a huge margin, picking off traditionally red states (+90 or more)

Very good night = 0 chance.  This would mean he'd have to win all the states Bush won in 2004, which is not entirely inconceivable, but would require him to pick off a Kerry state, which is not happening.
Good night = 0 chance.  Iowa and New Mexico are ready to flip.
Fair night = 0 chance.  See above.
Bad night = Very likely.  It looks like Colorado will flip, at least.  With just Colorado (and NM,IA which are expected to go blue) it puts Obama at +8.
Very bad night = Somewhat likely.  With Colorado putting him at +8, Virginia, which looks like the next most likely to flip according to polling, puts Obama at +34.  Ohio puts it at +74, Nevada at +84.
Back-breaking bad night = Possibly likely.  CO/VA/NV/OH puts it at +84.  An one of the following states will put the total at +90 or more: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Missouri...all of which are heavy red states.


House right now: 235-199 (1 vacant by the death of Tubb Jones in a very democratic district, so it is essentially 236-199)

Very good night = decrease of the current margin by any amount
Good night = no change of current margin (+36 without Jones' district, +37 with)
Fair night = small democratic gains (gain of 5-15 seats)
Bad night = significant democratic gains (16-35)
Very bad night = large democratic gains (36-50)
Back-breaking bad night = excessive democratic gains (51+)

Very good = 0 chance.  At least one district I know is ready to flip red to blue because of all the crap from the GOP side, that being NY-13.
Good night = 0 chance.  See above.
Fair night = quite unlikely...gains are expected to exceed 15 seats
Bad night = somewhat likely
Very bad night = rather likely
Back-breaking bad night = somewhat unlikely


Senate right now: 49-49-2 (or 51-49 with Independents' democratic caucus)

Very good night = decrease of the current margin by any amount
Good night = no change of current margin (0 without independents, +2 with)
Fair night = small democratic gains (gain of 1-4 seats)
Bad night = significant democratic gains (5-6)
Very bad night = large democratic gains (7-8)
Back-breaking bad night = unexpected democratic gains (9+)

Very good night = 0 chance.  Virginia and New Mexico are guarantees to flip.
Good night = 0 chance.  See above.
Fair night = guaranteed to occur, at least.  The GOP capitulated Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
Bad night = very likely.  I put this at only 5-6 because of the other "danger" states, only two really stand out: Alaska because of Stevens' indictment, and North Carolina because of the major spending and hard hitting attacks on Dole (I'm in NC and I see it every day).  Both are red states which one would never think would go blue.
Very bad night = somewhat likely.  This one refers to Minnesota and Oregon, two blue states which have a somewhat good chance of going blue (in terms of the senate).
Back-breaking bad night = it might happen.  This one refers to Mississippi-special, Kentucky, Georgia, and Texas.  All the races are becoming tight, Georgia being the tightest.  If any of these traditionally red states go blue then it is a back breaking night.