Is SUSA for Real or a Joke? (Georgia, for example)
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  Is SUSA for Real or a Joke? (Georgia, for example)
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Author Topic: Is SUSA for Real or a Joke? (Georgia, for example)  (Read 1419 times)
JSojourner
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« on: October 01, 2008, 10:13:52 AM »

Susa has Martin within two points of Chambliss.  I like Martin a lot and I despise Chambliss.  But I just can't imagine Georgia swinging D.

I know ARG is a crock poll.  What do you guys think of SUSA and specifically, its polling in the Peach State?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2008, 10:16:42 AM »

SUSA doesn't do very much weighting in its poll, which can cause its samples to really swing a lot, as energy and excitement move.  I've often thought this is also why it's one of the best polls for low turnout races.

In other words, it's real, but it's often quite bumpy.  At least they are generous with the internals so we can pick apart the numbers.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2008, 10:32:02 AM »

SUSA doesn't do very much weighting in its poll, which can cause its samples to really swing a lot, as energy and excitement move.  I've often thought this is also why it's one of the best polls for low turnout races.

In other words, it's real, but it's often quite bumpy.  At least they are generous with the internals so we can pick apart the numbers.

Thanks, Sam.  I had a feeling it was a useful poll but hardly the only one we wanted to rely on.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2008, 10:47:01 AM »

Survey USA was the best pollster, by far, in the primaries. They have struggled ever since however, but they are certainly more reputable than ARG.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2008, 09:02:08 AM »

These are the freakiest crosstabs I think I've ever seen.  Chambliss -2% with men, +6% with women.  And asking Georgians to identify as intellectual or not.
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2008, 09:04:49 AM »

These are the freakiest crosstabs I think I've ever seen.  Chambliss -2% with men, +6% with women.  And asking Georgians to identify as intellectual or not.

Apparently the "intellectual" question (and the other weird ones) are a new SUSA addition; it's in their other recent polls, too.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2008, 10:16:31 AM »

If SUSA strongly disagrees with other polls, they're a joke.  If they fit somewhere in between respectable pollsters, they also become respectable.

Arbitrary, but SUSA has wild swings, unless there are a lot of SUSA polls to average out, best to toss the wild ones out.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2008, 01:05:43 PM »

I've always put pretty decent weight on SUSA polls.  They're a decent pollster that winds up being right more than they wind up being wrong.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2008, 02:20:27 PM »

Susa has Martin within two points of Chambliss.  I like Martin a lot and I despise Chambliss.  But I just can't imagine Georgia swinging D.

I know ARG is a crock poll.  What do you guys think of SUSA and specifically, its polling in the Peach State?

Gas crisis?  I know some voters are mad at Governor Perdue for leaving the state on a trade mission while they spend hours on line waiting to get gas to go to work.  (On the other hand, there's really not much a governor can do about it in the first place).
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 10:46:36 PM »

Chambliss vulnerable?Huh SWEET!
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2008, 06:38:37 PM »

And asking Georgians to identify as intellectual or not.

Are they planning a "Retarded" identification next?
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