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| | | |-+  What will be the closest state this year, Part III
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Poll
Question: ...
New Hampshire   -0 (0%)
Pennsylvania   -1 (1.4%)
Ohio   -6 (8.7%)
Virginia   -10 (14.5%)
North Carolina   -10 (14.5%)
Florida   -3 (4.3%)
Missouri   -17 (24.6%)
Iowa   -0 (0%)
Wisconsin   -0 (0%)
Michigan   -0 (0%)
Indiana   -7 (10.1%)
Colorado   -2 (2.9%)
New Mexico   -1 (1.4%)
Nevada   -9 (13%)
Other   -3 (4.3%)
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Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: What will be the closest state this year, Part III  (Read 6779 times)
Sbane
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« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2008, 07:18:28 pm »
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OH or FL. I suspect OH falls slightly to Obama while MCcain wins Florida slightly. This is with about a 4 point win for Obama.
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Punditty
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« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2008, 09:07:35 pm »
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Last time, I thought Florida. Now I think Obama has Florida barring something major.

This time, I'm going with Indiana although North Carolina could be right there, with Georgia as a "surprise" battleground state. Missouri will break one way or the other near the end (as Missouri often does) and won't be as nail-bitingly close as people think. Expect mischief and accusations around the St. Louis vote, as always, which is usually reported late and has erased many GOP slim statewide margins over the years.

But I don't think MO will be close enough for that to matter.  If I had to guess now, I'd say it will end up about 50-47.5 Obama with Barr/Nader/other getting 2.5 percent.

Very interesting thread.
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« Reply #27 on: October 11, 2008, 11:09:10 pm »
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I've picked MO in all the polls, if consistency counts for anything.
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« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2008, 11:17:34 pm »
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North Carolina
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2008, 01:56:30 am »
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Virginia.
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Platypus
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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2008, 11:13:22 pm »
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Sheer vote number, NM; percentage-wise, Florida.
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2008, 11:16:59 pm »
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Nevada.

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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2008, 11:18:52 am »
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Bump.  Anyone else?
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2008, 11:26:32 am »
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Sheer vote number? North Dakota. Vote margin? Whatever. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2008, 04:05:21 pm »
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I am torn between Virginia and North Carolina. 
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2008, 04:27:10 pm »
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I voted NM last time on this poll....

Now I would have to say NC, followed by MO, and then IN.

I suspect the race will tighten up by 1-2 points, and considering early voting and ground game for Obama that NC will be the closest by percentage.
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LanceMcSteel
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2008, 10:57:26 pm »
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IN.

Obama will win by .5%
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2008, 02:01:51 am »
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Top three: Missouri, Florida, North Carolina.
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2008, 02:04:12 am »
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Voted Missouri.
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2008, 03:15:43 pm »
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Missouri.
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2008, 09:35:36 pm »
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I think Misery will be the closest when it breaks for John McCain and when it does, it won't matter.

If I had to guess a week out- this is what I am looking for-

National - 51.1-47.1-1.8

Big Three
Ohio - 51-48-1
Florida- 50-48-2
Pennsylvania- 53-45-2

The Upper "South" 
Indiana- 47-52-1
Missouri- 48.8-49.1-2.1
Virginia- 51-47-2
North Carolina- 48-50-2
Georgia-  45-54-1
West Virginia- 42-55-3

The New West
New Mexico- 52-46-2
Colorado- 51-47-2
Montana- 44-53-3
North Dakota- 46-53-1
Nevada- 50-47-3
Arizona-  46-52-2

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« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2008, 10:41:14 pm »
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I'm starting to think it might be Indiana.
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« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2008, 12:06:42 am »
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Missouri
North Carolina
Indiana
Nevada
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