Research 2000: McCain is not competetive in Iowa

[Eraserhead]

Obama 55%
McCain 39%

http://www.kcci.com/politics/17598982/detail.html

Why was he just there? Is his internal polling messed up?

[Speed of Sound]

More importantly, why are we still polling this so much? We get it....its over.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's going to win Iowa by double digits.

I wonder if the networks will call it immediately.

[Verily]

Obama's going to win Iowa by double digits.

I wonder if the networks will call it immediately.

Depends, I think, if it looks like it might matter. If the exit polls show Obama considerably ahead in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, etc. as he's polling right now and essentially tied in North Carolina and Indiana, then they'll probably call Iowa right away. If things tighten up somewhat, they won't call it immediately because it is alleged to be competitive, much like North Carolina in 2004.

[Ebowed]

More importantly, why are we still polling this so much? We get it....its over.

You aren't loving it?

[memphis]

McCain has gone out of his way to poo ethanol at every opportunity. This was very predictable. I expect him to significantly underperform in Nebraska as well though he'll still win there comfortably.

[War on Want]

McCain has gone out of his way to poo ethanol at every opportunity. This was very predictable. I expect him to significantly underperform in Nebraska as well though he'll still win there comfortably.

Perhaps a few other states too that have significant amounts of corn ethanol production?

[Ebowed]

The status of Iowa in this election, I think, says something larger about the election as a whole.

Even though Bush didn't win every state in 2004 that he won in 2000 (New Hampshire), he at least had a good shot to win all of the close states he'd previously won.

McCain having to write off states that voted GOP in 2004 is a bad sign.  And even if he has spent some money in Iowa, surely his campaign has been aware that Iowa has basically been safe Obama all year.

[memphis]

McCain has gone out of his way to poo ethanol at every opportunity. This was very predictable. I expect him to significantly underperform in Nebraska as well though he'll still win there comfortably.

Perhaps a few other states too that have significant amounts of corn ethanol production?

It's a reasonable explaination why IN is so strangely competitive this year. McCain will be the biggest joke candidate since Dukakis if he loses IN.

[Smash255]

McCain has gone out of his way to poo ethanol at every opportunity. This was very predictable. I expect him to significantly underperform in Nebraska as well though he'll still win there comfortably.

Perhaps a few other states too that have significant amounts of corn ethanol production?

It's a reasonable explaination why IN is so strangely competitive this year. McCain will be the biggest joke candidate since Dukakis if he loses IN.

Don't think so.  Not sure if we have any internals of the IN polls to show it and even if we did the MOE would likely be too high to really make any solid point.  With that being said, Obama being from a neighboring state helps, especially considering NW Indiana is suburban Chicago.  Also obama is likely to make major gains from Kerry in suburban Indianapolis, which is likely where the biggest difference will be seen.

[Wiz in Wis]

Well, to be fair, he did just tell them that they were going to lose their ethanol subsudies.. and then told the DM-Register ed board to suck it... so, yeah, that could push a few moderates.

[??????????]

Well, to be fair, he did just tell them that they were going to lose their ethanol subsudies.. and then told the DM-Register ed board to suck it... so, yeah, that could push a few moderates.

Good, ethanol is a bogeyman that's polluting our wonderful Gulf of Mexico.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does WalterMitty still honestly think McCain has a chance here?

[War on Want]

McCain has gone out of his way to poo ethanol at every opportunity. This was very predictable. I expect him to significantly underperform in Nebraska as well though he'll still win there comfortably.

Perhaps a few other states too that have significant amounts of corn ethanol production?

It's a reasonable explaination why IN is so strangely competitive this year. McCain will be the biggest joke candidate since Dukakis if he loses IN.

Yeah I don't think that is the reason why IN is competitive but I am sure it helps in many agricultural areas.

First off, corn isn't grown much in Indiana in the first place and really only corn farmers and their dependents would be turned off by anti-ethanol talk and second I really doubt it affects that many votes outside of areas that are extremely corn dependent.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, considering McCain has pissed on Iowa this entire election cycle, this is no surprise.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Given Iowa's history of being close, it's not entirely ill-advised for McCain to keep spending money in Iowa. Perhaps the McCain campaign is betting on some late movement towards him.