VA: Mason Dixon: McCain 48% Obama 45%

[Thomas Jackson]

http://www.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/mccain_leads_virginia_in_new_mason_dixon_poll/9013/

John McCain kept his three-point lead over Barack Obama in a Mason-Dixon Research poll of likely Virginia voters that was released today.

The Republican’s 48-to-45 advantage in the Mason-Dixon poll once again emphasizes Virginia’s status as a battleground state, because the poll’s margin of error is four points. McCain’s margin, of only three points, means the pollster can’t be confident about who’s ahead.

In the Lynchburg-Danville region, the Mason-Dixon poll gives McCain an 11-point advantage over Democrat Obama, but the margin of error is higher for the poll’s regional breakdowns.

In Roanoke and Southwest Virginia, McCain is ahead by a 54-39 margin.

The Mason-Dixon poll interviewed 625 registered voters by phone this week, Monday through Wednesday.

Obama holds a strong lead in Northern Virginia (57%-37%), but McCain has wide margins in Virginia’s rural regions and the Richmond Metro area.

The race remains very close in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater region.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

LOL!  yeah, right

[Thomas Jackson]

Mason-Dixon is the gold standard in polling in the Southern States.

No one else is even close. Even some of the more liberal members here recognize that.

[Eraserhead]

Damn.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Mason-Dixon is the gold standard in polling in the Southern States.

No one else is even close. Even some of the more liberal members here recognize that.

I'm fully aware of that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Haha, funny. Even Gold standard polling company mess-up sometimes.

[Josh/Devilman88]

That would mean VA is 8% more republican then the National avg. In 2004 wasn't they like 4% or something?

[Thomas Jackson]

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The regional breakdowns are very realistic. In fact, if anything the Southwestern Virginia margin is a bit too pro-Obama.

[Thomas Jackson]

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No, Bush won Virginia by 8.2%

[Rowan]

ARG and Mason-Dixon agree. Who woulda thunk it?

[Rococo4]

regardless of the result, more mason-dixon polls please

[Alcon]

Gold standard aside, when you're out on your lonesome, you're out on your lonesome.

This poll is unchanged from their 9/20 result.  The same day, ABC showed Obama +8 and SUSA showed Obama +6.  I don't trust ABC, and SUSA has been "eh" this year.

We can't just call M-D the gold standard and accept this carte blanche, but Virginia polling is definitely discordant right now.

[ChrisFromNJ]

So Mason Dixon is the gold standard for Virginia, but just a week ago we tossed the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Obama leading in Florida in the garbage?

Jackson, try not to be a hypocrite for once in your life.

[Alcon]

So Mason Dixon is the gold standard for Virginia, but just a week ago we tossed the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Obama leading in Florida in the garbage?

Jackson, try not to be a hypocrite for once in your life.

I don't remember him having done that

[Thomas Jackson]

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That's because I didn't.

[TheresNoMoney]

Nate Silver of 538 has Mason-Dixon ranked as the 7th most accurate pollster, behind other companies like Selzer & Co., SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen.

[Alcon]

Nate Silver of 538 has Mason-Dixon ranked as the 7th most accurate pollster, behind other companies like Selzer & Co., SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen.

M-D had a rough-and-tumble primary season.  That doesn't make me super-psyched for their General performance, but they were amazing in 2004.  Good enough in 2006, too.  They're a good pollster.  They deserve reverence.

They don't deserve worship when we have tons of conflicting polls, but the conflicting polls are mediocre enough to warrant pause.

[Thomas Jackson]

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Nate Silver is in the tank for Obama.

[Thomas Jackson]

Someone needs to enter this BTW.

[Brittain33]

Nate Silver is in the tank for Obama.

Where did "in the tank" come from, anyway? Can we throw it "under the bus"?

[The Ex-Factor]

Nate Silver is in the tank for Obama.

Where did "in the tank" come from, anyway? Can we throw it "under the bus"?

[Brittain33]

I don't get how the allusion works, though. It's not as if Dukakis was doing someone a favor or showing his support for them, nor did people like Ted Kennedy get into that kind of photo to show their support for Dukakis. Also, not clear how this would resurface specifically after 20 years with a convoluted meaning.

[Sam Spade]

Gold standard aside, when you're out on your lonesome, you're out on your lonesome.

This poll is unchanged from their 9/20 result.  The same day, ABC showed Obama +8 and SUSA showed Obama +6.  I don't trust ABC, and SUSA has been "eh" this year.

We can't just call M-D the gold standard and accept this carte blanche, but Virginia polling is definitely discordant right now.

Virginia polling has been discordant since the RNC, actually Alcon. 

Past predictions are no guarantee of future performance, but in VA 2004/2006, M-D and Rasmussen did much better than SUSA (all three were too Democratic in 2004).  Especially in 2006:  M-D nailed VA and Rasmussen was point off, whereas SUSA was way outside the MOE.

Of course, in 2005, SUSA came the closest (was a point off).  Rasmussen was within MOE (3 points off), while M-D was barely outside of MOE (5 points off).

[Brittain33]

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No, Bush won Virginia by 8.2%

Which means it was about 5.5% more Republican than the country as a whole in 2004. Do you believe Virginia is swinging further to the Republicans vis a vis the rest of the country this year? What would account for that... demographic changes in Northern Virginia?

[Rowan]

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No, Bush won Virginia by 8.2%

Which means it was about 5.5% more Republican than the country as a whole in 2004. Do you believe Virginia is swinging further to the Republicans vis a vis the rest of the country this year? What would account for that... demographic changes in Northern Virginia?

Well, if Obama is up 3 nationally, then this poll is entirely plausible.