What are the swing states now?

[Person Man]

The states that have already swung:
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota

The new swing states:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida
Nevada
North Carolina
Missouri

[JSojourner]

AW,

I think Virginia and Colorado are still pretty much in play. At least, they seem to be.  We'll know more after the next McCain-Obama debate.

As to the next list, I agree...and I am as shocked as anyone to say this -- but Indiana is seriously starting to look like it's in play.  At the very least, it's a state where the Republican is being forced to spend money.  I've lived here 20 years and can't remember a GOP candidate ever buying TV time here...other than occasional ads aimed at Michigan or Ohio.

(I'm still predicting Indiana will break McCain's way in the last week or so.)

[Horus]

McCain leaning swing states: NC, IN, MO
Obama leaning swing states: CO, VA, MN
Pure tossups: OH, FL, NV

All others go to expected candidate, we are down to these nine.

[Josh/Devilman88]

McCain leaning swing states: NC, IN, MO
Obama leaning swing states: CO, VA, MN
Pure tossups: OH, FL, NV

All others go to expected candidate, we are down to these nine.

Its funny to think IN and NC are toss-up, but hey times change.

[ChrisFromNJ]

If North Carolina is a toss-up, so is Minnesota and Indiana.

[SPQR]

Minnesota is lean Obama,no way it's a tossup.

[Person Man]

Yeah....maybe we have been getting offliers with no other polls in New Hampshire and Minnesota and even Colorado.

[opebo]

[Dan the Roman]

I think that West Virginia is actually in play right now. This a terrible climate for McCain and it is populated by those most effected by the economic downturn politically. Plus it has been relatively close in the polls. I think McCain is up, but probably only by around 6 or so, and thats with no Obama investment. Had he played in the primaries who knows what might have happened.

[exopolitician]

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana [maybe].

[afleitch]

^^^

I tend to agree. I think that Obama has 'locked in' the Gore states and is hunting wins in the smaller states plus Virginia and in Florida. I don't think he is too concerned with Ohio.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Likely Voter]

I think there is really one swing state that matters....CO

Obama is locking up the Kerry and the Gore states, giving him 264. The state that would be next to tip him over is CO.

The rest: NV, OH, FL, MO, IN, WV, NC are just icing on the cake and would only come into play in the unlikely event he lost one of the Kerry/Gore states.

[Ronnie]

>90%  = Safe
>50%  = Lean/Likely
>30%  = Tilt
Gray    = Tossup

[big bad fab]

Already swung to Obama: IA, NM

Leaning Obama but weak: NH, CO, VA

Toss-up leaning Obama: FL, NV, OH

Toss-up leaning McCain: NC, IN, MO

Leaning McCain but weak: WV