Obama adds another field office in NE-2, Some ME-2 Talk too

[Lunar]

source

Has there been a poll out of NE-2 anytime in the last month?

Oh, and also:
source

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[Josh/Devilman88]

No, there hasn't.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting.... 

A possible counter to McCain's gambit for Maine-2?

[Lunar]

I don't think McCain really is making a gambit for ME-2, that's just all rhetoric to save himself some face.  The spending reports for McCain in Maine won't be out until November, so yeah. 

Opening up a field office on October 2nd in a place like this is a relatively big deal.  This late in the game, it's not about trying to psyche out your opponent, like perhaps Obama's spending early on in Alaska, Montana, Georgia, and North Dakota was.   Spending switches are much more meaningful as you hunker down in the last month.  Obama clearly won't completely dominate McCain financially and McCain, if he's pulling out of Michigan, isn't about to invest in Omaha 

It's reasonable to guess that someone looking at internals in the Obama campaign guesses that they might have a legitimate long shot bid for NE-2.  Of course, most people here know that Obama is already running ads in Nebraska since somewhere around 20% of Iowa is in the Omaha media network.

[Lunar]

Added some ME-2 info at the top.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would assume that McCain has some manner of internal polling that shows a marked difference between the presidential preferences of northern and southern Maine.

I'm not sure he's totally serious about picking up an EV in ME-02, but I'm also not sure he's entirely bluffing, either.  If it's cheap (~$500,000) and if you're within five, then why not take a stab?  Especially when there is a very real possibility of winding up at 269/269 otherwise.

[NOVA Green]

Added some ME-2 info at the top.

Thanks! I was actually trying to find the ME-2 article you added the link for since it makes this move by McCain seem somewhat credible.... it seems to be one of the few areas where Palin might actually make a difference because of the demographics in that region.

[Nutmeg]

The districts of Maine aren't really that politically different these days.

[Alcon]

The districts of Maine aren't really that politically different these days.

Not in partisan identification, but Obama is a good candidate for ME-1 and an "eh-OK" candidate for ME-2.

Still, it's a harder slog than in 2004 and unless the odd Maine polls are right (I doubt it), this is a bluff.

[Dan the Roman]

I would generally agree with the skepticism here, not least because the addition of Waterville to the 2nd in 2002 moved it about 1.5% more Democratic than previously. That said, the GOP has shown more residual strength in the area at the legislative level over the last few years, and the north is Susan Collins home base. Based on past experience she should get a massive turnout.

Also from what I have heard from friends on both the Collins and Obama campaigns up there, Tom Allen's recent implosion is reflecting negatively on the Democrats generally. The Mayor of Lewiston, a Democrat backed Collins as did the Mayor of Bangor, and the Allen people contrived to have the Mayor of Lewiston ousted from the party which has only succeeded in crippling the Democratic turnout effort. The Union response to Allen is similar to what Phil claims to be hearing from PA, and Obama is dangerously identified in places like Lewiston, Waterville, Presque Isle, and Machias, with wealthy out of state college students who raise local real estate prices and then trash the houses at 2 Am. All the local dynamics are arguably against  Obama here, though you could say the same thing about the 3rd District in Massachusetts and we all know how that will end up.

Is it in play right now? Probably not. In a 50-50 race? Quite possibly, Maine is probably one of the least polarized states in the country though it has been moving in the same direction as the rest of the NE.

[Brittain33]

That said, the GOP has shown more residual strength in the area at the legislative level over the last few years, and the north is Susan Collins home base. Based on past experience she should get a massive turnout.

How far south from Fort Kent does that effect reach?

[Dan the Roman]

That said, the GOP has shown more residual strength in the area at the legislative level over the last few years, and the north is Susan Collins home base. Based on past experience she should get a massive turnout.

How far south from Fort Kent does that effect reach?

Based on 2002 all of Arroostook county at least. Penobscot too. Kerry won that(barely) in 2004 but Collins ran 9 points ahead of her statewide numbers there. These counties are really isolated and rarely see anyone. Its a big deal to have a native daughter. I know that the (former)Vice President of Maine College Democrats,, hardcore Dailykos type, is voting for Collins solely on that basis.

Usually Democrats balance out losses in the rural areas of the 2nd district with wins in the urban ones. But they are overwelmingly Franco-American and Catholic, and both Allen and Obama are weak matches for there. I think McCain is betting  on Palin acting as a pseudo-native daughter of the North and Obama under performing. It may happen.

Also worth noting that there are a lot of College students in the district. Bates, Bowdoin,Colby, UMaine-Orono, UMaine-Presque Isle, Umaine-Farmington(I think), UMaine-Fort Kent, UMaine-Machias. i am provisionally counting over 27,000. Not familiar enough with the smaller schools and community colleges. Voting is really easy for them in Maine, and I know from my experience that at least the liberal arts ones its a good idea to expect around a 50% turnout, which given how many are voting absentee is pretty good. Probably about a 75-25 margin for Obama as well.

[Likely Voter]

I am surprised both campaigs waited this long. A few weeks ago fivethirtyeight.com had a tie as a 5% chance. The two tie scenarios are:
Obama wins Gore states + CO
Obama wins Gore states + NV+NH

After the GOP convention I think some of the polling sites had the race tied with the first scenario for a few days. In a very close PV race these are both quite possible. It makes sense for both sides to try and grab an EV tie breaker if it doesn't cost too much.

[War on Want]

A good thing to remember is that Kerry probably overperformed in ME-2 because of the French having no warmth to the Republicans in 2004 because of all the anti-French rhetoric. It sounds stupid but this was very true in 2004. A huge amount of people still speak french at home here, more than you would think so this should be a factor.

[Sensei]

A good thing to remember is that Kerry probably overperformed in ME-2 because of the French having no warmth to the Republicans in 2004 because of all the anti-French rhetoric. It sounds stupid but this was very true in 2004. A huge amount of people still speak french at home here, more than you would think so this should be a factor.

Huge amount?

no, but it is over 20% of people in Aroostook County, but not that many elsewhere in Maine.

[JSojourner]

Maine will be reliably Democratic across the board.  Nebraska will be reliably Republican across the board.

But this does prompt another question.

Have other states toyed with the idea of handling their EVs this way? 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not seriously of late, though in the early years of the Republic, electing individual electors, either from congressional districts or single member districts established just for the electors was fairly common.

[War on Want]

A good thing to remember is that Kerry probably overperformed in ME-2 because of the French having no warmth to the Republicans in 2004 because of all the anti-French rhetoric. It sounds stupid but this was very true in 2004. A huge amount of people still speak french at home here, more than you would think so this should be a factor.

Huge amount?

no, but it is over 20% of people in Aroostook County, but not that many elsewhere in Maine.

IMO more than 5% of a county speaking a language like French at home is pretty big.

[Lief 🗽]

There were Democrats in the NC legislature pushing for it this year, JS, but Howard Dean basically told them to leave it be.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nebraska, LOL

[Brittain33]

A good thing to remember is that Kerry probably overperformed in ME-2 because of the French having no warmth to the Republicans in 2004 because of all the anti-French rhetoric. It sounds stupid but this was very true in 2004. A huge amount of people still speak french at home here, more than you would think so this should be a factor.

Huge amount?

no, but it is over 20% of people in Aroostook County, but not that many elsewhere in Maine.

IMO more than 5% of a county speaking a language like French at home is pretty big.

I very much doubt that 20% of Aroostook County speaks French at home. Is there a source for this? How many people under age 70 would do so?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I very much doubt that 20% of Aroostook County speaks French at home. Is there a source for this? How many people under age 70 would do so?

According to the 2000 Census, 22.37% of those in Aroostook County speak French as their first language, and 5.28% of all Maine residents.

Of the 15,645 primary French speakers in Aroostook County, 1,425 were ages 5-17, 10,490 were 18-64, and  3,730 were 65 and older.

[Brittain33]

I very much doubt that 20% of Aroostook County speaks French at home. Is there a source for this? How many people under age 70 would do so?

According to the 2000 Census, 22.37% of those in Aroostook County speak French as their first language, and 5.28% of all Maine residents.

Of the 15,645 primary French speakers in Aroostook County, 1,425 were ages 5-17, 10,490 were 18-64, and  3,730 were 65 and older.

Thanks.