Texas

[FerrisBueller86]

Why has Texas become so right-wing over the decades?  Today, it's best known as the home state of George W. Bush.  Ann Richards used to be the governor.  The liberal icon LBJ came from Texas.

In 1968, Hubert Humphrey managed to carry Texas but still lose the election even though it was neither his home state nor that of Muskie.  While this was LBJ's home state, LBJ was so unpopular that he decided not to run.  Clinton was much more popular in 2000 than LBJ was in 1968, yet Gore lost in both his own home state and in Clinton's home state.

The way things are today, no Democratic presidential candidate could carry Texas in anything short of a landslide victory.

One thing seems to be constant, though.  If you don't like long, bloody wars, think twice about electing Texans as president.

So what changed since 1968 to change Texas from a liberal state to a right-wing one?

[Rob]

Texas has never been liberal. It's populist. The difference is that conservatives used to vote Democratic. They now vote Republican.

[Sam Spade]

Simple.

The urban areas have grown in population significantly but haven't changed much, maybe grown slightly more liberal.

The suburban/exurban areas have grown in population much more signifcantly than the urban areas, and have stayed about as conservative, maybe grown a little more. (as opposed to the NE/Illinois/California suburbs)

The rural areas (about 30% of Texas' population) went from voting about 80% Democrat to about 80% Republican in the span of 40-50 years.

That's the reason why Texas is where it is now.  And unless that changes, Texas won't change in the near future, no matter where the Hispanics go (rural Hispanics tend to be much more conservative btw, Bush's big gains in Texas in 2004 were among them).

The rural landscape dominates Texas more than it does almost any other state, and always has.

[Sam Spade]

Texas has never been liberal. It's populist. The difference is that conservatives used to vote Democratic. They now vote Republican.

Texas is not populist (except for certain sections of east Texas and along the Southern border).

It's actually more conservative-libertarian in ideals more than anything else, though the population tends to be very religious.

[Rob]

Texas has never been liberal. It's populist. The difference is that conservatives used to vote Democratic. They now vote Republican.

Texas is not populist (except for certain sections of east Texas and along the Southern border).

It's actually more conservative-libertarian in ideals more than anything else, though the population tends to be very religious.

That's interesting. I just assumed it was populist because the Socialists used to do so well there. I guess urbanization really changed things.

And BTW, off topic but I've been wanting to ask you- do you know what happened in Assumption Parish, Louisiana in 1936? ( See my thread in Overall Presidential Results).

[Sam Spade]

Texas has never been liberal. It's populist. The difference is that conservatives used to vote Democratic. They now vote Republican.

Texas is not populist (except for certain sections of east Texas and along the Southern border).

It's actually more conservative-libertarian in ideals more than anything else, though the population tends to be very religious.

That's interesting. I just assumed it was populist because the Socialists used to do so well there. I guess urbanization really changed things.

And BTW, off topic but I've been wanting to ask you- do you know what happened in Assumption Parish, Louisiana in 1936? ( See my thread in Overall Presidential Results).

You're probably remembering a time, back in say 1900-1940, when all rural areas of Texas acted much more like William Jennings Bryan populists.

That area changed a lot after 1960, when the rural people (especially in West and Central Texas) started to act much more like Mountain West libertarians.

Remember, Brazoria County and Galveston County along the coast in SE Texas continue to elect a candidate in Ron Paul, who really should be a member of the Libertarian party.  That area is actually very ancestrally Democrat.

East Texas is about the only part of Texas I would really call populist and along the border too.  Rural Hispanics in Texas (and there are a lot of them), tend to be extremely populist in nature, urban Hispanics less so.

And as to your Assumption Parish question, I really have no idea.  My guess, and this is a wild one, is that part of Louisiana is very much controlled by oil and gas companies.  They certainly influenced Billy Tauzin while he was in Congress.  I don't know how strong they were then in 1936, but it's possible they could have influenced the vote greatly in 1936, if they were anti-Roosevelt, because Assumption Parish is very lightly populated.

[jimrtex]

Why has Texas become so right-wing over the decades?  Today, it's best known as the home state of George W. Bush.  Ann Richards used to be the governor/

Richards was elected governor because the Republican candidate had a penchant for making really dumb remarks.

Many of other Democrats were conservative and switched parties (Phil Gramm, Kent Hance, Rick Perry, Carol Keeton ... Strayhorn, Ralph Hall).

[jimrtex]

Remember, Brazoria County and Galveston County along the coast in SE Texas continue to elect a candidate in Ron Paul, who really should be a member of the Libertarian party.  That area is actually very ancestrally Democrat.

Ron Paul was originally elected from a district that was suburban Houston (he defeated Mike Andrews in one election), and is now held by Tom DeLay.

His 1990s district was designed for a Democrat who switched parties and then was beaten by Paul in the Republican primary.  The Galveston part of the district was added in 2003, and the portion of Brazoria county was increased.




East Texas is about the only part of Texas I would really call populist and along the border too.  Rural Hispanics in Texas (and there are a lot of them), tend to be extremely populist in nature, urban Hispanics less so.

And as to your Assumption Parish question, I really have no idea.  My guess, and this is a wild one, is that part of Louisiana is very much controlled by oil and gas companies.  They certainly influenced Billy Tauzin while he was in Congress.  I don't know how strong they were then in 1936, but it's possible they could have influenced the vote greatly in 1936, if they were anti-Roosevelt, because Assumption Parish is very lightly populated.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've just been looking at a couple of maps of statewide races in 2002, and it seems as though a scattered group of rural counties in NW Texas voted Democratic in most of them.
O/c in the presidential election they all went for Bush, most pretty heavily (although Kerry did manage to crack 40% in one of them, Foard I think). I think Gore won a few precincts there in 2000.

Don't know anything about the area, just looked unusal compared to the rest of West Texas.

[angus]

Why has Texas become so right-wing over the decades?  Today, it's best known as the home state of George W. Bush.  Ann Richards used to be the governor.  The liberal icon LBJ came from Texas.

In 1968, Hubert Humphrey managed to carry Texas but still lose the election even though it was neither his home state nor that of Muskie.  While this was LBJ's home state, LBJ was so unpopular that he decided not to run.  Clinton was much more popular in 2000 than LBJ was in 1968, yet Gore lost in both his own home state and in Clinton's home state.

The way things are today, no Democratic presidential candidate could carry Texas in anything short of a landslide victory.

One thing seems to be constant, though.  If you don't like long, bloody wars, think twice about electing Texans as president.

So what changed since 1968 to change Texas from a liberal state to a right-wing one?

Well, as Al has pointed out, Texas has become more "western" for one thing.  If you look at photographs from the 30s and 40s of any gathering in any small town in texas, you won't see cowboy hats and boots.  You'll see the dress of southerners.  But, over time the Southern culture of Texas has been supplanted by Western culture.  (yes, I know that's something of an oversimplification, but basically it gives most of the answer).  So, while the New Dealers had a lock on the Solid South, the were losing Texas owing to its vast natural resources, and its penchant for individualism.  (again, going back to Elazar's model)  In fact, if you look at the I-T boundary, it runs right through the southern half of the middle of the United States, and therefore, right through the middle of Texas. 

Johnson was certainly a liberal, in the american sense.  But you should not read into that that in the mid 50s Texans preferred Liberals.  They just preferred Johnson.  Also, it never really has been established that Johnson won his first race on the up-and-up.  So it isn't even clear that Texans ever really preferred Johnson over his opponent.  The Great Society was his to own, and his to make, and after its inception, Texans began to vote (and dress) increasingly like Westerners and less like Southerners.  Not surprising, because unlike, say Alabama, the population of Texas in only a small percent black, but a large percent hispanic.  In fact, like California, it is 33% hispanic.  Al, I think therein lies your explanation for those few counties (Foard, for example) bucking current trends, the main one, in the West, being that Cowboys like clean air, low taxes, and less intrusive government, whereas Vaqueros (like blacks) have a much larger role in mind when it comes to government.  This is also why the GOP, in both California and Texas, is trying so hard to court their vote and yet seeing only marginal success.  And it is increasingly why the GOP is turning to a black- and hispanic-oriented versiion of the Nixon strategy.  Sleazy?  yes.  Effective?  probably. 

"I'm from so deep in Texas that I never even heard the word Republican till I was 18."
  --60s FBI agent in Mississippi Burning

[Storebought]

Assumption Parish is easier to explain: suburbanization

When I first went to NOLA from BR about 15 years ago, there was nothing in that parish except the town of Gonzales and a few shotgun shacks lining the smaller highways. Now, most of the narrow highways have been widened, Gonzales melds with south Baton Rouge,  and the shotgun shacks are replaced by the usual strip-mall fare.