ME: Rasmussen: Obama leads McCain by 5

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Maine President by Rasmussen on 2008-10-02

Summary: D: 51%, R: 46%, I: 2%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

This is the third poll (granted two from Rasmussen and one from SUSA) that shows only Obama +5 in Maine or so.  The first two were conducted during the first week and weekend of the financial crisis when McCain was down 3, but something may actually be going on here that we're missing.  I want one more poll before I say anything definitive.

[GMantis]

McCain's attempt at ME-2 might actually work.

[Rowan]

What the heck is going on in Maine?

[??????????]

What the heck is going on in Maine?

What the heck is going on in a LOT of these safe Bush/Kerry (04) states? Maybe the Bradley affect WILL be real afterall??

[© tweed]

What the heck is going on in Maine?

What the heck is going on in a LOT of these safe Bush/Kerry (04) states? Maybe the Bradley affect WILL be real afterall??

this post either a) makes no sense or b) shows that you don't know what the Bradley Effect is.

[Kalimantan]

I want one more poll before I say anything definitive.

I'm pretty sure you say this after every poll - I think I know where this race is right now but I'll wait until I see next weeks results to be sure

[Dan the Roman]

I've been thinking on this, but as much as people here dismiss the cell phone effect, this may be one place where it plays. The 2nd district in Maine has an enormous number of college students v. the general population(around 7-8%), a large portion out of staters, but Maine does have same-day registration, and having gone to school there, even at the liberal arts schools where maybe 20% are in-state, 55%+ vote in Maine(and this was a Governor's race in 2006). They will not be picked up in polls, but are probably a solid Obama contingent.

[Alcon]

I've been thinking on this, but as much as people here dismiss the cell phone effect, this may be one place where it plays. The 2nd district in Maine has an enormous number of college students v. the general population(around 7-8%), a large portion out of staters, but Maine does have same-day registration, and having gone to school there, even at the liberal arts schools where maybe 20% are in-state, 55%+ vote in Maine(and this was a Governor's race in 2006). They will not be picked up in polls, but are probably a solid Obama contingent.

Still mathematically pretty small (generously setting 0.7 as the relative turnout value, adjusted from 55%):

(0.07*0.7*0.67)-(0.07*0.7*0.33)=1.7% margin for Obama

[Ronnie]

ME is more GOP than the national average?  Somebody pinch me.

[Dan the Roman]

I've been thinking on this, but as much as people here dismiss the cell phone effect, this may be one place where it plays. The 2nd district in Maine has an enormous number of college students v. the general population(around 7-8%), a large portion out of staters, but Maine does have same-day registration, and having gone to school there, even at the liberal arts schools where maybe 20% are in-state, 55%+ vote in Maine(and this was a Governor's race in 2006). They will not be picked up in polls, but are probably a solid Obama contingent.

Still mathematically pretty small (generously setting 0.7 as the relative turnout value, adjusted from 55%):

(0.07*0.7*0.67)-(0.07*0.7*0.33)=1.7% margin for Obama

I do think it is significant though, at least in the 2nd District, where almost the entire college population is concentrated(minus Bowdoin and USM-Portland). This was of course deliberately done to prevent the strategy McCain is now attempting from working.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maine was Perot's best state in both 1992 and 1996.  Maybe the Maverick theme is allowing McCain to tap into some residual Perot sentiment.  Also the Palin bump was most pronounced in the states Perot did best.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The state polls are all over the place. Minnesota and Maine are two that aren't making much sense right now.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Is the economy in Maine doing better than the national economy as a whole?

[Ebowed]

Makes more sense than you all think.  Obama was never going to win Maine by 15.  Some of these states were inevitably going to tighten up as Republicans dissatisfied with Bush come home to McCain.

The state, and its second district, are still safe for Obama at the moment.

[cinyc]

The state polls are all over the place. Minnesota and Maine are two that aren't making much sense right now.

They make sense if you think Palin is helping McCain in the Frozen North, where hockey moms are prevalent and the folks go snowmobiling and hunting - even for moose in Maine.

[kevinatcausa]

Are any of the pollsters putting out results split by congressional district?

[cinyc]

Are any of the pollsters putting out results split by congressional district?

One of the pollsters did a while back (SUSA?) - and there was no appreciable difference in the polls of the 2 CDs.

[Likely Voter]

What the heck is going on in Maine?

What the heck is going on in a LOT of these safe Bush/Kerry (04) states? Maybe the Bradley affect WILL be real afterall??

you seem to say that gleefully...are you hoping racism gets McCain elected? Is that the kind of country you want to live in?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The state polls are all over the place. Minnesota and Maine are two that aren't making much sense right now.

They make sense if you think Palin is helping McCain in the Frozen North, where hockey moms are prevalent and the folks go snowmobiling and hunting - even for moose in Maine.

You talk in clicheise far too often, sir. Why try English instead.

[Zarn]

What the heck is going on in Maine?

What the heck is going on in a LOT of these safe Bush/Kerry (04) states? Maybe the Bradley affect WILL be real afterall??

you seem to say that gleefully...are you hoping racism gets McCain elected? Is that the kind of country you want to live in?

I don't see how the Bradley effect is inherently racist. I thought people didn't want to seem racist, and pick the black candidate in surveys. That doesn't make them racist.

[??????????]

you seem to say that gleefully...are you hoping racism gets McCain elected? Is that the kind of country you want to live in?

*shrug* It's the kind of country we live in anyways but people are afraid to face the Gods honest truth. Mexicans and Blacks can't stand each other. Blacks are threatened by Mexicans overtaking their "minority" status. Liberal guilty whites are to scared to tell blacks to stop complaining, pick yourself up and better yourself, and on and on.

[Democratic Hawk]

you seem to say that gleefully...are you hoping racism gets McCain elected? Is that the kind of country you want to live in?

*shrug* It's the kind of country we live in anyways but people are afraid to face the Gods honest truth. Mexicans and Blacks can't stand each other. Blacks are threatened by Mexicans overtaking their "minority" status. Liberal guilty whites are to scared to tell blacks to stop complaining, pick yourself up and better yourself, and on and on.

Obama has been telling black men to take more personal responsibility - and, IIRC, Jesse Jackson (Snr) didn't react too favorably to him doing so

Bear in mind that Obama is a politician who happens to be black not a black identity, as in race, politician running on grievances, past or present, towards African-Americans

Dave

[NOVA Green]

you seem to say that gleefully...are you hoping racism gets McCain elected? Is that the kind of country you want to live in?

*shrug* It's the kind of country we live in anyways but people are afraid to face the Gods honest truth. Mexicans and Blacks can't stand each other. Blacks are threatened by Mexicans overtaking their "minority" status. Liberal guilty whites are to scared to tell blacks to stop complaining, pick yourself up and better yourself, and on and on.

I don't know States, I guess where I've been and what I've seen I see a different America than you have. I really don't think that race is nearly as major a factor in 2008 as it was in the '90s, or certainly the '80s.

I hear the same complaints from most working class folks regardless of race: a broken health care system, jobs being shipped overseas, an educational system that is flawed, and government taking our tax dollars without giving anything back.

Sure there were some really upset people around here when the immigration reform bill was brought up, but even then it was more about working-class Americans getting screwed overall then about any kind of racial bias.

Granted I'm currently living in a state that is 70% anglo, with no major history of racial strife so maybe I'm not getting the tensions that still exist in more diverse parts of the country between different ethnic groups. But even when I was living in Ohio in the '90s where there was a high rate of racial stratification, I still heard the same complaints about the American economic system and access to opportunities for those left behind in the pursuit of the American dream. 

[??????????]

Oregon is a whole different world from Florida, we both know that. Their really is a lot of tension here between Mexicans and Blacks. I could understand if I was black. Blacks and whites here naturally tend to segregate themselves from each other, it's especially noticeable at our cafeteria, blacks in one half of the room and whites in the other. Personally I don't care, I'll sit with whomever I want to talk with that particular day. Mexicans and other Spanish speakers usually eat with the whites. The funny thing is though, you'd think it would be all older people, the complete opposite. The younger blacks separate themselves from the whites. A lot of older blacks sit and chat delightfully with older whites. Maybe white southern culture and black southern culture have diverged from each other as compared to the old days when poor blacks and whites had a lot in common.