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Author Topic: McCain cannot win unless  (Read 2523 times)
JCox
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« on: October 04, 2008, 11:57:02 am »
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Well I think it's near safe to say unless the following happen in the next few weeks I seriously doubt John McCain will win.  In Order from Most Realistic to Less Realistic

1. He wins the 2nd Debate. In fact the first debate did not play to McCain's Strengths. He is much better at Town Hall Style Meetings. If he gets a tie or gets blown out there is little chance for him to win the 3rd debate.

2. An event involving the war on terror happens.

3. Obama or Biden is caught with a live Boy or a dead girl or a goat.

I know four weeks is an eternity but really barring a miracle McCain has no chance.
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strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2008, 12:49:06 pm »
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McCain can still win if he convincingly wins one or both debates or if Obama makes a major gaffe.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2008, 01:39:38 pm »
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I know four weeks is an eternity but really barring a miracle McCain has no chance.

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Lіef
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2008, 02:21:50 pm »
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I know four weeks is an eternity but really barring a miracle McCain has no chance.


Um... Carter won.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2008, 02:22:36 pm »
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You missed the point obviously.
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2008, 03:20:15 pm »
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You missed the point obviously.
I must have. In the graph you posted, the polls went form Carter +6 four weeks before the election to Ford +1 right before the election. Carter ended up winning by 2. So, yes, it tightened, but Carter still won, just like he was going to if the election had been held four weeks earlier. This election should also tighten: I don't expect Obama to win by the 6-8 points he's currently polling, but it's very difficult to be leading by that much and then lose.
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2008, 05:47:36 pm »
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Hey, Obama's lead could get a lot bigger.  But, I am guessing he will probably poll 50-48, just like Carter did in 1976. With those numbers, he will probably have all of Gore and Kerry's states plus Virginia and Colorado. 286-252. Though, it could be more like 51-47.5...and the map will look more or less the same with Nevada flipping and either Florida, Ohio or North Carolina flipping.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2008, 06:15:31 pm »
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You missed the point obviously.
I must have. In the graph you posted, the polls went form Carter +6 four weeks before the election to Ford +1 right before the election. Carter ended up winning by 2. So, yes, it tightened, but Carter still won, just like he was going to if the election had been held four weeks earlier. This election should also tighten: I don't expect Obama to win by the 6-8 points he's currently polling, but it's very difficult to be leading by that much and then lose.

A lot of experts have said that if the election was held two days later Ford would have won. My point is the state of the race NOW is probably not how it will look a month from now.
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2008, 07:20:48 pm »
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Remember that more and more early morning makes the pre-election polls more and more relevant. If there were no early voting in 2000 then arguably Gore would have won.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2008, 07:41:27 pm »
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There was some pre-election polling in 200 (even in 1980), absentee voting.

1.  McCain comes up with a kick ass economic plan.

2.  Obama looks aloof while McCain connects (that could happen Tuesday).
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2008, 07:46:12 pm »
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I know four weeks is an eternity but really barring a miracle McCain has no chance.



That race tightened up because of Ford's good debate performance in the first presidential debate of that year.
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2008, 07:46:51 pm »
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I know four weeks is an eternity but really barring a miracle McCain has no chance.



we weren't on the verge of losing our banking system in 76...fear is a very powerful motivator, that's why McCain's chances are almost zero barring something that changes the dynamics of the race
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StatesRights
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2008, 07:49:12 pm »
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we weren't on the verge of losing our banking system in 76...fear is a very powerful motivator, that's why McCain's chances are almost zero barring something that changes the dynamics of the race

“They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and change the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution.” -Alinsky, Obamas Hero
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jmfcst
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2008, 07:53:29 pm »
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we weren't on the verge of losing our banking system in 76...fear is a very powerful motivator, that's why McCain's chances are almost zero barring something that changes the dynamics of the race

“They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and change the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution.” -Alinsky, Obamas Hero

dude, check the scoreboard, McCain is down 12 points in the forth quarter and Obama has the ball and is driving for another score.
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Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

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I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
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A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2008, 07:56:09 pm »
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we weren't on the verge of losing our banking system in 76...fear is a very powerful motivator, that's why McCain's chances are almost zero barring something that changes the dynamics of the race

“They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and change the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution.” -Alinsky, Obamas Hero

dude, check the scoreboard, McCain is down 12 points in the forth quarter and Obama has the ball and is driving for another score.

Yeah but the Democrats are like Florida State. We'll stop them, they'll go for a field goal, kick it wide left and we'll storm back with the 2 minute drill.
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muon2
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2008, 11:22:39 pm »
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we weren't on the verge of losing our banking system in 76...fear is a very powerful motivator, that's why McCain's chances are almost zero barring something that changes the dynamics of the race

“They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and change the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution.” -Alinsky, Obamas Hero

dude, check the scoreboard, McCain is down 12 points in the forth quarter and Obama has the ball and is driving for another score.

Sounds like the Chicago Bears this year. They found ways of losing a second half 14-point lead (@ Car), then come back the following week to give up a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes to play (vs Tam).
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