GOP Congressional Wipeout Is the Buzz, and the End Is Near [Liddy Dole is Toast]

[Torie]

So says Politico. The Dems think they might get 60 seats in the Senate, and the GOP agrees. Minus 20 in the House. It is all going to hell, and the Left will realize all its dreams, and civilization as we know it will end! Just damn!

And there you have it.

[Verily]

I'm a little confused by the complete writing-off of Dole, but I suppose if she really has no campaign infrastructure up whatsoever and was relying on advertising (which wouldn't surprise me at all), she probably is doomed. That's information I just don't have.

[ChrisFromNJ]

It is odd how this McCain advisor is pronouncing Liddy Dole dead at this point. There is still 30 days left in the campaign.

[HardRCafé]

Oh, ha ha.    Jim VandeHei.

[bgwah]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

[Ronnie]

I'd be depressed in Kay freaking Hagan unseats Liddy Dole, but not as much as if Franken unseats Coleman.

I really don't know what's going on with Dole.  Is she running that terrible of a campaign?

[Sam Spade]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

I agree on Franken.  Allen is toast.  GA seems like a real, real long-shot.

Wicker?  I don't see that either, but the probability is higher than the three above.

Moreover, I'm growing less and less confident of the government's ability to do away with Stevens.  It's not just the evidence screw-ups, I just don't think their case is that strong.  And Sununu has made a pretty good comeback (as I have said many times Shaheen is not a great candidate).

As mentioned on another thread, my DSCC fundraising e-mail today said that Dems held leads in 6 GOP seats.  Considering they ain't leading right now in MN, MS and KY, that e-mail translates into them not thinking they don't lead in one of either AK, NC, NH or OR (since they surely lead in VA, NM and CO).  I'm just trying to figure out which one.

[Sam Spade]

I'd be depressed in Kay freaking Hagan unseats Liddy Dole, but not as much as if Franken unseats Coleman.

I really don't know what's going on with Dole.  Is she running that terrible of a campaign?

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

As for Franken, he may be one of the worst challengers for a gimme seat that I've seen in a long while (1994 - Ollie North, maybe).  I'm almost sure he's down 4-5 points right now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It's the end of the Republican party's power in Congress, & it's all our fault.

[Mr. Morden]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

Counting Lieberman and Sanders, the Dems currently have 51 seats.  The 7 most vulnerable GOP seats are VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, and OR.  That gets you 58 seats, if the Dems win all of them.  From there, I would guess MN would be the most likely to be #59, and MS to be #60.  Though I suppose KY could substitute for one of those.  Obvisously, that's quite a longshot, that the Dems would win all of those races, but I assume that's the scenario they're talking about.

[bgwah]

It certainly doesn't seem very likely at all. Franken isn't even leading in his own internals right now. I have trouble seeing Wicker losing.

Alaska, Oregon, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are far from a sure thing. In fact, I'm worrying that Palin coattails may end up saving Stevens.

Not sure about Kentucky.

I'm thinking the Democratic maximum is likely going to end up being 58---though if they're extremely lucky I suppose anything up to 61 is possible...

[minionofmidas]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

Dean Barkley. They're counting Dean Barkley as a Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

The Dems will end up getting VA, NM, CO and NH.

Close to somewhat close wins for the GOP will be OR, AK, NC and MN.

Wins by about ten points for the GOP will be KY and MS.


That leaves the Dems with 55 (assuming they don't kick Lieberman out of caucus).

[Lunar]

MS+10, GOP picking up AK, OR, NC, and MN?  Is this some kind of late-GOP surge?

Because Liddy Dole is an awful campaigner, she's behind and trending worse, and the Democrats are going to have a strong organizational advantage this time around (Obama's been building hard in NC ever since mid-way through the primaries and constantly visits the state).

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

[Sam Spade]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

[Sam Spade]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

btw, I'm going to try to do my House update this afternoon (finally).  Senate is done.  You and I disagree on a couple of races, but not big differences in my view.  I'll bump when complete.

How's Rice going?

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

btw, I'm going to try to do my House update this afternoon (finally).  Senate is done.  You and I disagree on a couple of races, but not big differences in my view.  I'll bump when complete.

How's Rice going?

My classes are going well and I'm enjoying college life. The one downside is that I don't have as much time to carefully track the down-ballot races.  This forum really is an invaluable resource for a time-strapped college student.

[Eraserhead]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

Me either but a Franken win is still probably more likely than a Lunsford win.

Anyway, I don't see the Dems hitting 60.

[Mr.Phips]

MS+10, GOP picking up AK, OR, NC, and MN?  Is this some kind of late-GOP surge?

Because Liddy Dole is an awful campaigner, she's behind and trending worse, and the Democrats are going to have a strong organizational advantage this time around (Obama's been building hard in NC ever since mid-way through the primaries and constantly visits the state).

The only way this would happen is if McCain was able to pull back into a tie at the final days of the election.  As we stand right now, Democrats are likely to take AK, CO, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, and VA and one of KY, GA, or MS. 

[WalterMitty]

I'd be depressed in Kay freaking Hagan unseats Liddy Dole, but not as much as if Franken unseats Coleman.

I really don't know what's going on with Dole.  Is she running that terrible of a campaign?

dole deserves to lose.  she voted against the bailout.

[7,052,770]

Wins by about ten points for the GOP will be KY and MS.

Are you still insisting that Wicker will win by 10?  Jeez...

Wicker may win, but if he does it'll be very close.