Louisiana Primary Results

[Meeker]

The rescheduled Louisiana primary took place today. Before we move into the actual races, one should note the bizarre calendar that Louisiana now has for their Congressional races. The first party primaries occurred today, October 4th (rescheduled from September 6th). On November 4th, when Louisiana votes for President and Senate like the rest of the county, any necessary primary run-offs will occur for the House seats. Then on December 6th is the general election for the Congressional seats. Why do they do it this way? Beats the hell out of me. On to the races!

LA-02: "Dollar" Bill Jefferson is up for re-election. He has several Democratic opponents. While I'm sure they're all lovely people, only one of them is white. Welcome to the November 4th run-off Helena Moreno! (FYI - with one precinct in, Jefferson has zero votes.)

LA-04: Jim McCrery decided he wanted to be a lobbyist. Vying to replace him are three Republicans, four Democrats and two Independents. I can't really tell which Republican is favored... probably John Fleming. I suspect this one will go to a run-off though. On the Democratic side the clear front-runner is Paul Carmouche, the Caddo Parish District Attorney. He should be able to reach that magic 50% mark tonight and avoid the run-off, thus giving him an advantage in an already competitive December 6th general election.

Nothing else really notable... Foster Campbell (failed 2007 Gubernatorial candidate) will win re-election to the PSC... and LOL at Republicans for not even fielding a challenger to Melancon.

[Meeker]

6% in now... Jefferson is in third place with 22%. Byron Lee, a Jefferson Parish Councilman, has 29.5%. Moreno is clocking in with 31.5%

I won't get my hopes up just yet...

[Verily]

Any link to results?

Never mind, here: http://staticresults400.sos.louisiana.gov/100408state.htm

[Meeker]

My bad: http://staticresults400.sos.louisiana.gov/100408state.htm

Jefferson has now taken the lead thanks to Orleans Parish

[Verily]

Interestingly, one of the Democratic candidates in LA-01, the one currently losing, ran in the jungle primary in LA-02 in 2006 and managed to finish third from the bottom.

[Meeker]

Interestingly, one of the Democratic candidates in LA-01, the one currently losing, ran in the jungle primary in LA-02 in 2006 and managed to finish third from the bottom.

I think he also ran for Governor in '07. He's just a crazy who always likes to be on the ballot.

[Alcon]

2,207    10.67%   James Carter    -
1,383   6.68%   Troy "C" Carter    -
5,535   26.75%   William J. Jefferson    -
3,617   17.48%   Byron L. Lee    -
4,523   21.86%   Helena Moreno    -
2,994   14.47%   Cedric Richmond    -
434   2.10%   Kenya J. H. Smith

Life is NOT fair.

[Meeker]

It looks like Carmouche will have to face one of his token opponents in a November 4th run-off, barring Bossier coming in very strong for him. Shame.

[Brandon H]

Interestingly, one of the Democratic candidates in LA-01, the one currently losing, ran in the jungle primary in LA-02 in 2006 and managed to finish third from the bottom.

I think he also ran for Governor in '07. He's just a crazy who always likes to be on the ballot.

Vinny Mendoza also ran in the CD-1 Dem. Primary earlier this year (when it was vacant after Jindal became governor) and lost there. So in a two year period, he lost 4 elections.

Regardless of whether Mendoza or Jim Harlin win for the Dem's, Scalise will easily win the General election.

We also have a Republican Primary in CD-5. Rodney Alexander is leading Andrew Clack 90 - 10. No one else is running, so Alexander is re-elected.

[Verily]

Moreno has gained some ground against Jefferson, but Jefferson's definitely going to the run-off. He'll probably be stronger in the latest results, too. The parish results suggest Byron Lee should soon start fading and that Cedric Richmond may take third.

Incidentally, Moreno may be better placed geographically to take the seat than Karen Carter was. Carter struggled to get the votes she needed in Jefferson Parish in the run-off. But that assumes racial voting is overcome, which seems unlikely...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Interestingly, I found a poll of the primary that says Moreno could knock off Jefferson in a runoff. I'm not sure how legitimate the poll is, though.

She's apparently running as a conservative Democrat.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     If Moreno knocks off Jefferson, that would truly be our finest hour.

[Meeker]

Carmouche fell just short of 48%. He'll slaughter Banks in a month's time though.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side of things, Fleming and Gorman are separated by less than 500 votes. Off to a bloody run-off!

[Sam Spade]

Nothing too surprising here.

[Meeker]

94% in now. Moreno leads Richmond by around 2000 votes... the remaining precincts would have to be very black for Richmond to survive. No way to tell what part of the parish they're from though.

[Meeker]

10 precincts left and Moreno leads by 1,700. So long Richmond.

Blacks will rally behind Jefferson, Moreno will get around 40% of the vote, out-of-district liberals will whine, and another slew of second-tier Democrats will challenge Jefferson in 2010.

So it goes.

[Bacon King]

dammit

I've been really involved in Richmond's campaign lately. Jusdt got back from the "victory" party; cut out right after his concession speech.

Helena Moreno is a horrible person and only won because she's white. I met her at a candidate forum here at Tulane (before I decided to support Richmond) and found to her to be excessively caustic, confrontational, and just generally b!tchy. I'm not gonna vote for Jefferson, but sorry, there's no way I'm voting for Moreno. Guess I'm leaving that one blank in November.

----

In other news, Cannizzaro and Capitelli are going into a runoff for DA. Not that anyone didn't see that coming. Cnnizzaro got several percent more, though, FWIW.

[Meeker]

Richmond was my favorite (from afar) as well. Out of curiosity since you're on the ground there, do you think Moreno has been too white of a candidate to draw in anti-Jefferson blacks?

[Bacon King]

All the talk I've been hearing says there's no way Moreno wins a runoff with Jefferson.

I guess it could be possible if the dynamics of this race change a lot in the next month; for example, if all the losing candidates tonight band together to endorse Moreno over Jefferson then there'd probably be enough movement to say she'd win. That won't happen though, because I know at least a couple candidates are eyeing for a special election when Jefferson's kicked out.

[Bacon King]

Another thing I note: every supporter of James Carter I've talked to these past few weeks identified Richmond as their second preference.

J. Carter + Richmond = first place by far

guess the field was just too divided to get anyone sane in there.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I guess Louisiana loses again.

[HardRCafé]

God bless Nagin-Jefferson-Blanco Democrats.