M
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,491
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« on: September 15, 2004, 12:22:30 AM » |
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This is hard to predict because the Iran crisis will come to head in the next term, something very big and potentially positive could happen in the Israeli-Arab conflict, and there may be some sort of splash in Korea (anywhere from total collapse of the regime to Second Korean War). These three events will likely all register in the public conscious somewhere, depending on the "how" of it all. To a slightly lesser extent, Kashmir, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, and/or Colombia could make big news, good or bad.
If most of these crises either do not occur or have a positive and painless result, 55-60 is about right. If a major war or other "big doo-doo" thing happens, 10-90%, with a five pt MOE.
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