1992 - Richard Shelby vs. Arlen Specter
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1992 - Richard Shelby vs. Arlen Specter
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Author Topic: 1992 - Richard Shelby vs. Arlen Specter  (Read 1347 times)
bhouston79
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« on: October 04, 2008, 10:35:18 PM »

In 1992, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby was still a Democrat.  What would have happened in a hypothetical matchup between the Conservative Southern Democrat, Richard Shelby, and the socially liberal Republican Senator, Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania?  Would Perot have entered the race under such a scenario?  If so, how would that have played out?
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bhouston79
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2008, 06:45:40 PM »

Here's my map:



Electoral Votes
Shelby     280
Specter   258

Illinois would have been the crucial swing state that wasn't called until 4:00 a.m., and it would of course also provided the crucial margin of victory.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2008, 06:51:00 PM »

To really understand how this hypothetical would turn out you'd need to draw the line as to whether a given state votes on partisan grounds and/or ideological grounds. That is, the difference between a "conservative state" and a "Republican state" (or Democratic/liberal)

In this elections you'd see conservatives + partisan Dems for Shelby and liberals + partisan GOPers for Specter. An electoral map would be quite messy.
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benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2008, 07:34:26 PM »

I give it to Specter, 273-265:
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2008, 10:26:57 PM »

I'd actually vote for Specter in this situation without a second thought.
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