Why is the DSCC advertising in ME?
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  Why is the DSCC advertising in ME?
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Poll
Question: Which of these long-shot races should the DSCC be running ads in?
#1
ME
 
#2
MN
 
#3
MS
 
#4
KY
 
#5
GA
 
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Total Voters: 22

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Author Topic: Why is the DSCC advertising in ME?  (Read 1730 times)
MarkWarner08
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« on: October 05, 2008, 01:03:34 PM »
« edited: October 05, 2008, 01:12:48 PM by MarkWarner08 »

Here's the DSCC's new ME ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0TRSGX9Ivo

Why are they running ads in ME? By most accounts, Allen's campaign is imploding. He's failed to establish a negative narrative about Susan Collins and his positive ads aren't resonating with voters. By this juncture in the 2006 RI Senate race, Chafee's negatives were up and the Democrats were running attack ads in heavy rotation. Tom Allen seems content to run a lackadaisical, milquetoast campaign that doesn't engage  Collins, whose moderate brand remains intact.

With time running out for the Democrats to reach 60 seats in the Senate, why is the DSCC wasting cash in ME? Their CoH lead over the NRSC  is $7 million and dwindling, a far cry from their once prohibitive advantage over their GOP counterpart. Is this a late-breaking race like the MI Senate race in 2000, or is it a mirage that's diverting key resources from other potential tipping-point states?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2008, 01:05:15 PM »

That's a CO ad
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2008, 01:13:12 PM »

Thanks for noting that. I just replaced it with the ME ad.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2008, 01:18:12 PM »

That ad's pretty foul. Anyways, if I was the DSCC, the order in which I would invest is:

MN
MS
KY
ME
GA

The failure to make Maine a competitive state is probably the biggest disappointment of this cycle, IMO
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2008, 01:27:04 PM »

You have to invest in MN, but the only person it appears like the nuclear annihilation is helping is Barkley.  Which in turn will help Coleman, because if the national race keeps not being competitive, the next Republican argument will be - don't give the Democrats too much power.  And right now, it appears like Coleman can win with just Republican/Republican-leaning Indy support.  So I'm at a loss for advertising suggestions...

After that...

MS - Maybe beating down those 5% of voters who are actually swingable can turn them.
KY - Lunsford's gain in support is soft (as far as I can tell), but there's some growing room and you can always harden that support.
ME - Beating an incumbent with a 2-1 approval rating is tough.  But I always said that.  And I agree with you.
GA - Maybe.  The bailout has to stay an issue and you need massive black turnout.
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2008, 01:33:25 PM »

Focus on Minnesota and Kentucky.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2008, 08:42:59 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2008, 08:49:22 AM by brittain33 »

Which in turn will help Coleman, because if the national race keeps not being competitive, the next Republican argument will be - don't give the Democrats too much power.

When and how do you expect them to present that argument?

If I were Coleman, I would be very wary of going out there and saying "I'll be the guy who will stand up against Barack Obama," which is how it would come across. What else is a Democratic Senate going to do in 2009-2010 but work hand-in-glove with Obama, and why would people in a state going to Obama want to handicap him? Minnesota seems to really dislike the national Republican Party.

This argument is only applicable in states which McCain is going to win, IMO, and could make the difference in KY and GA, although I do recognize and respect the recent KY poll showing McConnell with a decent lead.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2008, 08:55:54 AM »

Which in turn will help Coleman, because if the national race keeps not being competitive, the next Republican argument will be - don't give the Democrats too much power.

When and how do you expect them to present that argument?

McCain makes that argument, not Coleman - but just as a general point, not as a specific argument.

I understand your point about Minnesota not liking the Republican party, but if Franken keeps collapsing and losing voters to Barkley, Coleman may only need 40% or so to win, which is somewhat around the Republican base in MN (it's more like 38%, but still).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2008, 08:58:46 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2008, 09:02:30 AM by brittain33 »

McCain makes that argument, not Coleman - but just as a general point, not as a specific argument.

I suppose I don't see how one successfully makes that point in a general sense without it communicating the idea that it's anti-Obama. Even more so if McCain is making the argument, because it is literally "I'm going to lose, so we need this guy more than ever to stop what's coming." Again, it's "stop Obama," not "stop Ted Kennedy and Barney Frank."

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Of course. And Coleman has to be favored right now, regardless. I have been presuming the Republican base is already solid for Coleman and any advances he needs are among conservative Democrats and swing voters, and they would not be receptive to a "stop Obama" message.

Remember: when the model for this strategy, Bob Dole, did it, the country was at best resigned to Bill Clinton and he was wringing out a second wave from the winning anti-Democrat message of 1994 when all-Democratic control was a fresh memory. I do not think these scenarios apply in 2008, when many people are genuinely hopeful about Obama or at least want to give him a chance. There's no sign that people are terrified of Democrats controlling the government completely. The message only resonates among hardcore Republicans now.

Also, it really does not seem in McCain's character to acknowledge defeat and campaign like Dole did. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2008, 09:11:10 AM »

Another way of looking at it:

Would a Carter-led campaign to "keep divided government" have stopped the Republicans from winning 12 Senate seats in the Reagan landslide of 1980? "Go slow, stick with what you know, don't give them too much power?"
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2008, 09:15:28 AM »

Also, it really does not seem in McCain's character to acknowledge defeat and campaign like Dole did. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

You raise a good point here.

Carter's campaign was roughly tied with Reagan until the debate (as both sides have pretty much admitted).  I don't think he had any time to make that argument (besides he was the incumbent, bit different strategy).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2008, 02:02:41 PM »

Running a pro-divided government campaign is not going to work.  First, McCain is in no where near as bad of shape as Dole was in back in 1996(he was behind by about 20 points at this time and led in just 10 states, Texas, Alaska, Utah, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, South Carolina, North Carolina and Mississippi).  Another reason is that people were generally happy with the way things were going back in 1996.  There was no economic crisis and nothing needed to be changed.  Now, decicive action is needed to stop a deep depression and people see only Obama and a heavily Democratic Congress able to do it. 
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2008, 02:54:05 PM »

MS and MN (in that order) are the best chances for the Dems out of those 5.
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2008, 03:00:45 PM »

I understand your point about Minnesota not liking the Republican party, but if Franken keeps collapsing and losing voters to Barkley, Coleman may only need 40% or so to win, which is somewhat around the Republican base in MN (it's more like 38%, but still).

It's 37.94%.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2008, 03:29:06 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2008, 04:03:47 PM by MarkWarner08 »

It looks like the DSCC is on the air in KS, too.  At the end of the ad, it says, "Paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHUvwwT9Tsk

The next question: When will the DSCC start airing ads in GA?

Edit: Typo corrected.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2008, 03:38:42 PM »

It looks like the DSCC is on the air in KS, too.  At the end of the ad, it says, "Paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Comittee." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHUvwwT9Tsk

For the six seconds or so in which you're led to believe that a group of people are literally being pissed on, this ad is officially my favorite of the season.
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