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| | | |-+  Fox/Opinion Dynamics indicate Kerry in much better shape than first thought...
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Author Topic: Fox/Opinion Dynamics indicate Kerry in much better shape than first thought...  (Read 5601 times)
mddem2004
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« on: September 13, 2004, 04:22:19 pm »
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http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/090904_poll.pdf

Poll conducted Sept. 7th & 8th
1000 LV's MOE +/- 3%

3 Way    Bush 47, Kerry 43, Nader 3, Und 7
Battleground 3 way   Bush 44, Kerry 46
2 Way     Bush 47, Kerry 45, Und 7
Battleground    Bush 43, Kerry 48

Bush Job Approval - 49% App, 44% Dis App

INDEPENDENTS
3 WAY       Bush 40, Kerry 42, Nader 4, Und 13
2 WAY       Bush 40, Kerry 46, Und 14

* Independents In 2000 Election Broke.....*
Bush 47        Gore 45       Nader 6

FYI.....
Fox Battleground states are:
AZ, AR, IA, FL, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, WV, WI.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2004, 04:25:31 pm »
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This poll is an outlier, Vorlon has probably already addressed it. The only other poll showing it this close is a Democratic poll, and that gave Bush a 3 point lead.

In reality, if the election were held today, Bush would probably win by 7 or so.

And the Kerry campaign is going to catch up by launching a national attack on Bush's Guard service? lol. It is now plainly obvious Carville and Co. want Kerry to lose.

I almost feel sorry for Kerry.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2004, 04:25:50 pm »
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We discussed this last week, mddem.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=8822

I'll skip my usual chiding of you for seeming desperate.  Wink

Feel free to add it yourself if you miss it.
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mddem2004
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2004, 04:43:55 pm »
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Ahhh...Trederick......always looking for a break in my confidence! Nope.....cool as a cucumber here. Now if this was Nov 1st.......Maybe.....but it isn't!

Just missed the original thread. Pardom me for highlighting some 'Good' news for my camp.....

AuH2O,
I would be more inclined to say the Time and Newsweek BS that has pumped up Bush's poll numbers are more likely the 'outlyers'. Especially since they were shown to have WAY over sampled the Republicans beyond any sanity.

But I would like to share this little comparison with you....



As you can see from this graph of the major polling firms, Fox does seem to poll a bit in favor, as compared to the median of all polls, for Bush. Hence.....a poll from them saying Bush up by 2% in a 2 way is pretty good news.

7% race?Huh  You gotta be kidding Right?

3% and closing probably more realistic......
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2004, 04:51:00 pm »
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Few quick points;

The poll had Kerry +5 if I recall among Registered voters, which relative to the others is a bit of an outier.  Opinion Dynamics is a very "purest" poll and employs very few weights and corrections.  The price they pay for this is a bit more pure random error.

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Gallup and most others, pushes the leaners, Opinion Dynamics does not.

Look at it this way:

Fox

Bush 47
Kerry 43
Nader  3
Undecided 7

Of those expressing a preference:

Bush 47/93 => 50.53%
Kerry 43/93 => 46.26%

I suspect in the aftermath of the Republican Convention, if you hammered the leaners Bush would have got his share

Gallup says 52/45 after pushing the leaners.
Fox says 51/46 among those expressing a preference.

Pretty darn close actually.

Pushing or not pushing the leaners is a philosophical qustion, there is no right or wrong when you are 2 months out.

Fox uses a much looser voter screen than many which is also a tad Dem friendly (as I posted before - you guys all laughed at me when I said Fox was a bit Kerry friendly methodologically Wink ) so, on balance,  I think NOT pushing the leaners is the  better choice in this case.

The "Battleground" number means nothing, the sample size (+/- 320 or so) is just too small.  I recall a previous Fox poll where Bush was up I think 2 but had a 9 point lead in the battlegrounds.

A national survey is designed to be "balance" in its sample Nationally, but not nessasarily within the regions.

Take national breakouts with a grain of salt, always..

All of the above being said, however,...


I really do think the GOPers ARE getting ahead of them selves.

Bush is up IMHO a fairly solid 4% or so.  His base is amazinging solid (He get's REagan like numbers among the GOP) and (Fox excluded) has a modest lead among Indys right now.

I'd rather be Bush the Kerry at this point, but there is, on the GOP side, a lot of "irrational exuberance" to borrow a phrase.

Football Analogy

It's the middle of the 3rd quarter, Bush is up 14-10

Team Kerry just punted the ball after a "3 and out" and Team Bush has the ball at midfield.

I'd rather be Bush, but there is a lot of Football left to play...
« Last Edit: September 13, 2004, 04:54:14 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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MODU
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2004, 04:51:25 pm »
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I hate those kind of graphs.  Beyond the fact that it reminds me of so of the equipment tests we did at sea . . . they're just hard to read.  I prefer multiple lines rather than target points.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2004, 04:57:29 pm »
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If I wasn't colorblind I am sure that graph would be usefull. Smiley

This is a graph of all the polls (good, bad, confused, whatever)

It is a simple "cut and paste" of all the polls from RealClearPolitics from about 2 days ago into excel, and then I put both Bush and Kerry onto a simple 10 poll rolling average to iron out the kinks:

I am fairly sure Bush had a good 6 weeks.

« Last Edit: September 13, 2004, 04:59:12 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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supersoulty
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2004, 07:50:22 pm »
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This poll is an outlier, Vorlon has probably already addressed it. The only other poll showing it this close is a Democratic poll, and that gave Bush a 3 point lead.

In reality, if the election were held today, Bush would probably win by 7 or so.

And the Kerry campaign is going to catch up by launching a national attack on Bush's Guard service? lol. It is now plainly obvious Carville and Co. want Kerry to lose.

I almost feel sorry for Kerry.

Carville is preparing for his 2008 comeback with Hillary.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2004, 07:52:05 pm »
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This poll is an outlier, Vorlon has probably already addressed it. The only other poll showing it this close is a Democratic poll, and that gave Bush a 3 point lead.

In reality, if the election were held today, Bush would probably win by 7 or so.

And the Kerry campaign is going to catch up by launching a national attack on Bush's Guard service? lol. It is now plainly obvious Carville and Co. want Kerry to lose.

I almost feel sorry for Kerry.

Damn liberal FoxNews
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