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Author Topic: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43  (Read 3086 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2008, 01:08:27 pm »
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IMPORTANT REMINDER

Minnesota: McCain +1
Virginia: Obama +10

Thank you for your time.
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n/c
Sibboleth
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« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2008, 01:30:54 pm »
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IMPORTANT REMINDER

Minnesota: McCain +1
Virginia: Obama +10

Thank you for your time.

Haha. Quite.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #27 on: October 06, 2008, 03:32:10 pm »
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Quote
For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%).

The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia.

2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.

If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found:

Democrat 36%
Republican 39%
Independent 26%

So in a horrible year, it was still R+3.

The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years.

No. It's not happening.

And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked.

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Thomas Jackson
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« Reply #28 on: October 06, 2008, 04:09:51 pm »
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This poll, more than any others, has demonstrated to me that the pollsters are flat out playing games.

In 2004 Republicans had a +9 voter ID advantage.

In 2006, an absolutely horrible year for Republicans, it was still R+3. Even then, Webb only managed to eke out a victory by the smallest margin.

SurveyUSA wants us to believe that it's now D+9.

That's an 18 point swing from 2004, and an 11 point swing from 2006.

Uh, No.


I'm waiting for the real polls on November 4th. I'm out.
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« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2008, 04:48:48 pm »
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SUSA doesn't weight and its polls always swing radically.  Remember Obama+11 in Iowa when McCain was leading ~2%?  Remember McCain leading 20% in North Carolina or by 1% in Minnesota? 

The poll isn't "playing games" - it's merely an erratic pollster.
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« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2008, 04:54:13 pm »
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2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.


Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe.
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« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2008, 05:55:25 pm »
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2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.


Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe.

It has been forgotten that Republicans turned out in force in 2006; they were outnumbered by Democrats and Independents voting together. What's more, Republican candidates held their own in the South.

It can get worse for Republicans than 2006. It's the same way that 2002 was worse for Democrats than 2004.
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« Reply #32 on: October 06, 2008, 06:45:29 pm »
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A sample size of 666. This is truly Satan's work.
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« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2008, 06:46:43 pm »
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Quote
For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%).

The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia.

2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.

If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found:

Democrat 36%
Republican 39%
Independent 26%

So in a horrible year, it was still R+3.

The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years.

No. It's not happening.

And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked.



I can just see you in 1932 saying that 1930 was as bad as it gets for Republicans.
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Pictor Ignotus
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« Reply #34 on: October 06, 2008, 06:48:20 pm »
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Geez- somebody pinch me- I must be dreamin'.
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« Reply #35 on: October 06, 2008, 08:06:29 pm »
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Yay Smiley
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« Reply #36 on: October 06, 2008, 09:31:55 pm »
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Quote
For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%).

The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia.

2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.

If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found:

Democrat 36%
Republican 39%
Independent 26%

So in a horrible year, it was still R+3.

The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years.

No. It's not happening.

And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked.



Yes, VA isn't more Democratic than it was two years ago, and Northern Virginia doesn't exist......
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2008, 04:20:30 am »
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2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory.


Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe.
He was considered the front runner for the 2008 Republican nomination in the spring and summer of 06...
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2008, 01:38:11 pm »
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Republican 30% (33%): McCain 83% (87%); Obama 15% (10%)

Democrat 39% (38%): McCain 9% (8%); Obama 89% (91%)

Independent 25% (22%): McCain 46% (48%); Obama 45% (45%)

Conservative 29% (30%): McCain 81% (83%); Obama 15% (14%)

Moderate 39% (38%): McCain 33% (34%); Obama 65% (62%)

Liberal 14% (12%): McCain 12% (13%); Obama 86% (86%)

(denotes SUSA, Sep. 19-21, 2008)
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