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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP/CSM: Bush & Kerry Tied at 47%  (Read 11038 times)
Hegemon
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« on: September 13, 2004, 05:11:42 pm »
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Zogby, Fox/OD, and Rasmussen get some company.  Poll conducted 9/7-9/12, 674 likely voters, 899 registered voters.  Kerry leads among rv's 46%-44%.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2004, 05:29:08 pm »
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Interesting.

TIPP is a VERY solid poll, this cannot be ignored.  Doesn't mean it is right, but it certainly has a chance of being right.

The polls have really split into two groups:

Time - Bush +11 / +12
ABC - Bush +9
Gallup - Bush +7
CBS - Bush +7
Newsweek Bush +5 /+6
Ipsos - Bush +5

Zogby - Bush +2 / +4
DEmocracy Corps - Bush +3
Fox - Bush +2 / + 4
Rasmussen - Bush +1
Tipp - Tied / Tied

The state polling is pretty mixed too...

Let's wait for the huge slew of state polls I expect we will get this week.

If there is, or is not, a Bush bounce holding up, we will see it there

We will see Smiley
« Last Edit: September 13, 2004, 05:33:41 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2004, 05:29:57 pm »
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Great news for the Kerry side.
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mddem2004
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2004, 05:52:41 pm »
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Vorlorn....15 yard penalty for Team Bush, OR interception by Team Kerry?Huh?  Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2004, 06:02:49 pm »
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Vorlorn....15 yard penalty for Team Bush, OR interception by Team Kerry?Huh?  Smiley

The play is under review actually.

Head Referee Gallup is looking for incontrovertable visual proof... or something...

This poll was done Sept 7-12 and found Kerry +2 at the RV level.

Ispos, another firm I also deeply respect, found Bush +8 at the RV level Sept 7-9th which overlaps by 50%.

My guess is that this one might be a bit of a blip.

I'll stick with Bush +4 for now Smiley

"Upon further review, the ball was juggled going out of bounds and is an INCOMPLETE PASS, 2nd and 10"

We start getting a whole crop of state polls tomorrow and those should clear things up.

Remember, we have had literally a dozen polls in the last 10 days, NONE of which has shown Kerry up.

The Bush +11s polls were, well, just nuts, and other than TIPP, the good ones are all in the +4 range (Gallup was +7 but they were done very close to the actual convention)

We will see Smiley

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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2004, 06:08:39 pm »
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TIPP is the only good pollster in Group #2...its like the head cheerleader on team Kerry.
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2004, 06:16:13 pm »
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TIPP is the only good pollster in Group #2...its like the head cheerleader on team Kerry.

In addition to TIPP, Fox and Democracy Corps are both solid in group #2.   I'd estimate about 3 good polls in each group, which makes the split even more interesting.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2004, 06:31:50 pm »
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Polls I actually trust:

Gallup - Bush +7
Ipsos - Bush +5
Opinion Dynamics - +4
Democracy Corps - Bush +3
TIPP - Tied

Toss out the high and the low...

Average = Bush +4

Seems about right to me.

These +11 and +12 things were.... interesting....
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2004, 08:37:01 pm »
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Besides the Bush vs Kerry, what other questions are important? Why are they asked if they don't tell something that Bush vs Kerry doesn't tell you? Do they give an idea of depth of support or wavering? Seems Bush has had higher unfavorable ratings than Kerry (and Cheney over Edwards; heck people like Edwards more than their own mother). Is it possible that Bush can go sour the public and Kerry warm up? There are no more conventions and two months of war fatalities coming with only slim chance of foreign policy success (OBL capture or dramatic decline in bombings).
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2004, 08:44:10 pm »
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It will be interesting to see the new state polls. The RNC is going to be a fairly distant memory soon, so I can't wait to see (1) what PA continues to show, which I'll be eyeballing, as well as WI and FL. I don't know about this TIPP poll - might be a little like the WI poll the other way.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2004, 08:59:57 pm »
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Besides the Bush vs Kerry, what other questions are important? Why are they asked if they don't tell something that Bush vs Kerry doesn't tell you? Do they give an idea of depth of support or wavering? Seems Bush has had higher unfavorable ratings than Kerry (and Cheney over Edwards; heck people like Edwards more than their own mother). Is it possible that Bush can go sour the public and Kerry warm up? There are no more conventions and two months of war fatalities coming with only slim chance of foreign policy success (OBL capture or dramatic decline in bombings).

I found the TIPP article and it does look a bit like an outtier from the write up.

Bush continues in TIPP and other polls to have a HUGE advantage in supporter intensity.

Till Kerry evens that up, Bush has the upper hand.
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2004, 09:26:46 pm »
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Polls I actually trust:

Gallup - Bush +7
Ipsos - Bush +5
Opinion Dynamics - +4
Democracy Corps - Bush +3
TIPP - Tied

Toss out the high and the low...

Average = Bush +4

Seems about right to me.

These +11 and +12 things were.... interesting....

While I definitely agree with you about Gallup, and ISPOS, and still have a lot of respect for Opinion Dynamics, Democracy Corps and TIPP are definitely second tier firms.

I would like to see the demographis of the TIPP poll cited.

Also, haven't seen recent Mason-Dixon polls.
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2004, 09:39:21 pm »
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This poll shows independents to Kerry by 10 pts which goes against the other polls.
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2004, 10:09:49 pm »
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Yes, and it shows Nader drawing equally from Bush and Kerry.

For a national survey, its a bit on the small side.

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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2004, 10:17:07 pm »
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TIPP is the only good pollster in Group #2...its like the head cheerleader on team Kerry.

Alright you have to explain why you have a Boxer and Bush image in your sig.
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afleitch
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2004, 04:54:45 am »
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Fantastic news. If you have watched and followed Kerry recently (from the comforts of a computer several thousand miles away) he seems...well...happy! He's smiling, hes interacting with the crowds and more importantly he's on 'message' 47% for both candidates seems about right, Bush hasn't displayed any signs that he's worked to hold the lead he gained from the convention, but Kerry has showed signs he's working on closing the gap. Of course Sep 30 is debate time. If he messes up that one showdown- he's toast, or at least just very warm bread! I don't think he will though. Kerry should do well.
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2004, 06:56:32 am »
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Good news for Kerry. Its the first poll (and I hope not the last) to give a kerry lead since the RNC convention.
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2004, 12:32:08 pm »
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Good news for the Democrats but it's the state-by-state polling, which is keeping me gripped.

I think Kerry should do well in the debates consolidating support among his own Democrats and winning over independents. It's down to him to convince the swing-voters that he is the man to lead America in the right direction.

Dave
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2004, 12:40:57 pm »
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I hope Bush wins. and I'm a democrat lol
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2004, 12:53:06 pm »
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I hope Bush wins. and I'm a democrat lol

Kerry not your choice of nominee I take it!

Dave
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« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2004, 12:54:53 pm »
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Well I have no problem with Kerry personally but I can't see him getting reelected and I don't trust him 100% in Iraq.

Also I support certain parts of the Bush agenda. I would rather it be a completely open in race in 2008, I guess is what I'm saying
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2004, 01:02:12 pm »
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TIPP is the only good pollster in Group #2...its like the head cheerleader on team Kerry.

Boxer AND Bush...?

I am confused... Huh
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« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2004, 02:47:58 pm »
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Well I have no problem with Kerry personally but I can't see him getting reelected and I don't trust him 100% in Iraq.

Also I support certain parts of the Bush agenda. I would rather it be a completely open in race in 2008, I guess is what I'm saying

You trust Bush 100% in Iraq?
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