IBD/TIPP/CSM: Bush & Kerry Tied at 47%

[The Vorlon]

Interesting.

TIPP is a VERY solid poll, this cannot be ignored.  Doesn't mean it is right, but it certainly has a chance of being right.

The polls have really split into two groups:

Time - Bush +11 / +12
ABC - Bush +9
Gallup - Bush +7
CBS - Bush +7
Newsweek Bush +5 /+6
Ipsos - Bush +5

Zogby - Bush +2 / +4
DEmocracy Corps - Bush +3
Fox - Bush +2 / + 4
Rasmussen - Bush +1
Tipp - Tied / Tied

The state polling is pretty mixed too...

Let's wait for the huge slew of state polls I expect we will get this week.

If there is, or is not, a Bush bounce holding up, we will see it there

We will see

[The Vorlon]

Vorlorn....15 yard penalty for Team Bush, OR interception by Team Kerry??  

The play is under review actually.

Head Referee Gallup is looking for incontrovertable visual proof... or something...

This poll was done Sept 7-12 and found Kerry +2 at the RV level.

Ispos, another firm I also deeply respect, found Bush +8 at the RV level Sept 7-9th which overlaps by 50%.

My guess is that this one might be a bit of a blip.

I'll stick with Bush +4 for now

"Upon further review, the ball was juggled going out of bounds and is an INCOMPLETE PASS, 2nd and 10"

We start getting a whole crop of state polls tomorrow and those should clear things up.

Remember, we have had literally a dozen polls in the last 10 days, NONE of which has shown Kerry up.

The Bush +11s polls were, well, just nuts, and other than TIPP, the good ones are all in the +4 range (Gallup was +7 but they were done very close to the actual convention)

We will see

[The Vorlon]

Polls I actually trust:

Gallup - Bush +7
Ipsos - Bush +5
Opinion Dynamics - +4
Democracy Corps - Bush +3
TIPP - Tied

Toss out the high and the low...

Average = Bush +4

Seems about right to me.

These +11 and +12 things were.... interesting....

[The Vorlon]

Besides the Bush vs Kerry, what other questions are important? Why are they asked if they don't tell something that Bush vs Kerry doesn't tell you? Do they give an idea of depth of support or wavering? Seems Bush has had higher unfavorable ratings than Kerry (and Cheney over Edwards; heck people like Edwards more than their own mother). Is it possible that Bush can go sour the public and Kerry warm up? There are no more conventions and two months of war fatalities coming with only slim chance of foreign policy success (OBL capture or dramatic decline in bombings).

I found the TIPP article and it does look a bit like an outtier from the write up.

Bush continues in TIPP and other polls to have a HUGE advantage in supporter intensity.

Till Kerry evens that up, Bush has the upper hand.

[The Vorlon]

TIPP is the only good pollster in Group #2...its like the head cheerleader on team Kerry.

Boxer AND Bush...?

I am confused...