Mr. Moderate's Intrade U.S. Senate Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, since I'm heavily obsessed with Intrade, I figured I'd start a thread to keep people up to date on the movement of the Senate races there.

For the purpose of these posts, I'll be using the GOP-to-win data, unless the DEM-to-win data is more informative and accurate.


Monday Oct. 6, 2008 @ ~4:30PM
8 Safe GOP (better than 90% chance): MS (Cochran), AL, TN, WY (Enzi), WY (Barasso), KS, OK, SC
8 Safe DEM (better than 90% chance): DE, AR, MA, MI, MT, RI, ^VA, WV

3 Strong Lean GOP (better than 80% chance): ME, NE, ID
4 Strong Lean DEM (better than 80% chance): LA, ^NM, SD, NJ

COMPETITIVE STATES (all GOP held)

TEXAS 79.5%
KENTUCKY 72.8%
GEORGIA* 68%
MISSISSIPPI (Wicker) 63%
MINNESOTA 50%
^NORTH CAROLINA 41%
^NEW HAMPSHIRE 27.7%
^ALASKA 25%
^COLORADO 22.5%


*Based off Dem-to-win figures.
^ Signifies Dem Pickup


Current projection: Democrats +6

More Intrade Contracts:
Democrats to win less than 45 seats: 0.3%
Democrats to win 46–50: 0.9%
Democrats to win 51–55: 30.0%
Democrats to win 56–60: 60.0%
Democrats to win 61–65: 11.5%
Democrats to win more than 66: 0.3%

[Bacon King]

At those prices I'd buy Dem wins for GA and KY. Not that they're going to be GOP losses, but I think the odds are gonna go up before they go back down.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

At those prices I'd buy Dem wins for GA and KY. Not that they're going to be GOP losses, but I think the odds are gonna go up before they go back down.

I agree—I'm currently long on Dem-to-win Kentucky, and would consider Dem-to-win Georgia if I could get it a few points cheaper.  I think that Liddy Dole-to-win might soon become a buy if NC dips back to 35 where it was earlier today.  Alaska seems a buy at 25.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Another good play worth looking into is Dems to win 61–65 Senate seats.  It's currently at 11.5, but I think it could double by election day.  Dems to win 51–55 Senate seats looks like a smart bet to short at this point: It's heading to 0.

[Sam Spade]

I like your calls, betting-wise, of course.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It looks like I accidentally left off Oregon on my first update.  That's been corrected here.



Wednesday Oct. 8, 2008 @ ~5:30PM
8 Safe GOP (better than 90% chance): MS (Cochran), AL, TN, WY (Enzi), WY (Barasso), KS, OK, SC
8 Safe DEM (better than 90% chance): DE, AR, MA, MI, MT, RI, ^VA, WV

3 Strong Lean GOP (better than 80% chance): ME, NE, ID
4 Strong Lean DEM (better than 80% chance): LA, ^NM, SD, NJ

COMPETITIVE STATES (all GOP held)

TEXAS 79.5%
KENTUCKY 76.3%  (+3.5)
GEORGIA 68.5%  (+0.5)
MISSISSIPPI (Wicker) 68% (+5.0)
^MINNESOTA 46%  (–4.0)
^OREGON  40.5%
^NORTH CAROLINA* 39.9%  (–1.1)
^ALASKA 35%  (+10.0)
^NEW HAMPSHIRE* 25%  (–2.7)
^COLORADO 21.5%  (–1.0)


*Based off Dem-to-win figures.
^ Signifies Dem Pickup



Current projection: Democrats +8

More Intrade Contracts:
Democrats to win less than 45 seats: 0.3%
Democrats to win 46–50: 0.9%
Democrats to win 51–55: 28.0%  (-2.0)
Democrats to win 56–60: 65.0%  (+5.0)
Democrats to win 61–65: 11.9%  (+0.4)
Democrats to win more than 66: 0.3%



My own calls:

It's time to start shifting your trading focus from profiting off of short term fluctuations to positions to hold through November 4.  A solid portion of my own portfolio is invested in Obama to win the Presidency, which is still a good, safe bet and is undervalued at 75.8 (its price has been rising rapidly this week).

As far as Senate holdings go, Democrats to pick hold at least 61 seats remains an interesting longshot play (though I would advise trying to pick it up for 10 or less) or as a hedge when investing in some of the more Republican seats.  Democrats picking up Kentucky is another good venue for a longshot if you, like I do, think things will remain bleak for Republicans in the upcoming days.  (I put a few dollars in each, but nothing significant.)

If you're interested in investing in Republicans, there's little reason for Liddy Dole to be valued as low as 39.9 here.  I boosted my holdings today at that price.  Alaska is another good place to do some bargain hunting, though it is slightly less attractive at the higher 35% price (I'd put Stevens' chances somewhere around 40–45, fair value.)  Another good play is picking Saxby Chambliss to hold on—fair value there is probably as high as 80.

It might be time to consider moving out of Colorado and New Hampshire, if you are already invested there.  New Hampshire saw some possible movement to the GOP a few weeks back, but the latest Obama surge probably makes that seat a lost cause for the GOP.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wednesday Oct. 15, 2008 @ ~2:45PM

8 Safe GOP (better than 90% chance): MS (Cochran), AL, TN, WY (Enzi), WY (Barasso), KS, OK, SC
8 Safe DEM (better than 90% chance): DE, AR, MA, MI, MT, RI, ^VA, WV

4 Strong Lean GOP (better than 80% chance): ME, NE, ID, TX
4 Strong Lean DEM (better than 80% chance): LA, ^NM, SD, NJ

COMPETITIVE STATES (all GOP held)

KENTUCKY 66.5%  (–9.8)
GEORGIA 65.1%  (–3.4)
MISSISSIPPI (Wicker) 60% (–8.0)
^MINNESOTA 40%  (–6.0)
^OREGON  36.5% (–4.0)
^ALASKA 35.5%  (+0.5)
^NORTH CAROLINA 30.0%  (–9.9)
^COLORADO 23.0%  (+1.5)
^NEW HAMPSHIRE* 15%  (–10.0)



*Based off Dem-to-win figures.
^ Signifies Dem Pickup



Current projection: Democrats +8

More Intrade Contracts:
Democrats to win less than 45 seats: 0.2% (–0.1)
Democrats to win 46–50: 0.4% (–0.5)
Democrats to win 51–55: 29.0%  (+1.0)
Democrats to win 56–60: 70.0%  (+5.0)
Democrats to win 61–65: 13.0%  (+1.1)
Democrats to win more than 66: 0.3%