Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Tracking Poll

[Tender Branson]

First release - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 48%
McCain - 45%

Obama is winning 86% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 49% to 42%.

Obama's edge also comes from a lead among women, where he holds a 51% to 42% advantage. McCain leads among men, but only by four points - 49% to 45%.

Among white voters, McCain leads Obama by a 55% to 39% margin, while Obama wins 90% support among blacks and leads among Hispanic voters by a 57% to 30% margin.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, conducted Oct. 4-6, 2008 by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,237 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1572

Please sticky this, it's a telephone poll after all ...

[Ronnie]

Zogby, you always fill an empty place in my heart - optimism.

[Nym90]

Stickied for amusement purposes.

[Verily]

On those kinds of D-R-I breakdowns, Obama should be winning overall by 6-7 points. At least, those internals are very close to what Rasmussen has. My guess: Zogby is fudging the partisan affiliations to make the race look close, not for partisan reasons (Zogby is IIRC, a Democrat), but because he wants to be "ahead of the trend" and get his polls press attention. He may also be looking to the future, hoping to release polls showing sensational Obama gains right before election day after showing the race close for a while.

[J. J.]

It's Zogby!

[cinyc]

It's Zogby!

At least it's not Zogby Interactive.  Let's see what special sauce Zogby brings to the table this year.

[Lunar]

Stickied for amusement purposes.

But what about forum visitors?  This needs a clear disclaimer for polling newbies.

[Hashemite]

Is Nader polling 15% in their 4-way race?

[Rowan]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

[Sam Spade]

On those kinds of D-R-I breakdowns, Obama should be winning overall by 6-7 points. At least, those internals are very close to what Rasmussen has. My guess: Zogby is fudging the partisan affiliations to make the race look close, not for partisan reasons (Zogby is IIRC, a Democrat), but because he wants to be "ahead of the trend" and get his polls press attention. He may also be looking to the future, hoping to release polls showing sensational Obama gains right before election day after showing the race close for a while.

Zogby has a different view of the race than you (or than I do).  Rest assured, if he thinks otherwise at the end, his polling will match that, but at all points now, he wants his polling to match his view.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

What is the Party ID weighting in this poll?

[Democratic Hawk]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

Republicans have lost self-identifiers since 2004. All pollsters seem to point to that. Do you think they deliberately go out of their way to be inaccurate like? Their credibility depends on that

Just because you are seeing polling numbers you don't like doesn't make them wrong. What is to say Election 2008 won't buck history?

Dave

[Rowan]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

Republicans have lost self-identifiers since 2004. All pollsters seem to point to that. Do you think they deliberately go out of their way to be inaccurate like? Their credibility depends on that

Just because you are seeing polling numbers you don't like doesn't make them wrong. What is to say Election 2008 won't buck history?

Dave

The only poll that matters is the one on November 4th, where the American people will speak, and not pollsters with flawed methodologies.

[Sam Spade]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

Republicans have lost self-identifiers since 2004. All pollsters seem to point to that. Do you think they deliberately go out of their way to be inaccurate like? Their credibility depends on that

Just because you are seeing polling numbers you don't like doesn't make them wrong. What is to say Election 2008 won't buck history?

Dave

The only poll that matters is the one on November 4th, where the American people will speak, and not pollsters with flawed methodologies.

(cue JJ)

[Kalimantan]

Maybe Zogby, unlike all other pollsters this year amazingly, is actually using the correct party ID weighting. Look back at history, the party ID from one election to the next doesn't change much(if at all).

Its nice that you're a glass-half-full kinda guy

[Zarn]

I'm not saying they will be right.

It would just be funny, if they were.

[cinyc]

Released October 8, 2008
Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 45% (nc)
(Poll taken October 5-7)

ItsaZogby!

Actually, Zogby thinks he's so special that he can tell us the results to the nearest tenth:
Obama 47.1% (-0.6)
McCain 45.2% (-0.1)
Others/Not sure 7.7% (+0.7)

[Tender Branson]

Thursday - October 9, 2008:

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 44% (-1)

Conducted Oct. 6-8, 2008, 400 LV each day

Obama is winning 86% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 87% of the Republican Party support – but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 35%, which represents a gain for Obama. This could be significant for Obama if it holds up through Election Day, because independents represent 26% of the national electorate.

[Tender Branson]

The beginning of the McCain debate bounce ?

Oh wait ... it's Zogby !

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Thursday - October 9, 2008:

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 44% (-1)

Conducted Oct. 6-8, 2008, 400 LV each day

Obama is winning 86% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 87% of the Republican Party support – but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 35%, which represents a gain for Obama. This could be significant for Obama if it holds up through Election Day, because independents represent 26% of the national electorate.

lol. The term "lol" really does sum things up nicely.

[ChrisFromNJ]

It's going to be funny seeing the Freepers bug out at this poll after championing it as the BESTEST POLL IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD for the last 2 days.

[Verily]

It's going to be funny seeing the Freepers bug out at this poll after championing it as the BESTEST POLL IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD for the last 2 days.

Eh, wait until Zogby decides to show Obama surging to a 15-point lead.

[cinyc]

Thursday - October 9, 2008:

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 44% (-1)

Conducted Oct. 6-8, 2008, 400 LV each day

Obama is winning 86% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 87% of the Republican Party support – but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 35%, which represents a gain for Obama. This could be significant for Obama if it holds up through Election Day, because independents represent 26% of the national electorate.

lol. The term "lol" really does sum things up nicely.

Not quite.  Zogby's special sauce allows him to divine the race to the nearest tenth:

Obama 47.8% (+0.7)
McCain 44.2% (-1.0)
Others/Not sure 8.0% (+0.3)

Zogby is specialer than all other pollsters.

[Kalimantan]

sticky

[Hashemite]

sticky

Nyet. It's Zogby.