If McCain doesn't win tonight, is it over?

[Lief 🗽]

If McCain doesn't win the town hall debate tonight, are his prospects for victory completely dashed? Or does he still have a chance to turn this thing around at next week's debate? Or will a win not really accomplish anything, as the race is already over? It's your choose.

[MODU]

No, but it won't help things any.

[The Mikado]

No.  It won't be over until it's projected on Election Night.

[ChrisFromNJ]

What does "win" mean?

There is entirely too much value placed on these debates. They don't single handedly swing elections.

[© tweed]

it's over anyway

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

What does "win" mean?

There is entirely too much value placed on these debates. They don't single handedly swing elections.

About time I agree with, Chris.

And I think it is, in effect, "over" anyway, just not technically til election night.  Who knows, we may have a November surprise.

[Lunar]

I  mean, McCain will almost certainly win, it's a townhall format.  If Obama flubs, it might be worth a couple points, but then the next debate is a format that Obama does better at.

Since the candidates won't be able to choose their own questions, they are extremely limited in being able to make decisive destruction of their opponent.  The questions are almost certainly be more folksy in nature than what a moderator would write.

[Sam Spade]

I  mean, McCain will almost certainly win, it's a townhall format.  If Obama flubs, it might be worth a couple points, but then the next debate is a format that Obama does better at.

Since the candidates won't be able to choose their own questions, they are extremely limited in being able to make decisive destruction of their opponent.  The questions are almost certainly be more folksy in nature than what a moderator would write.

We'll see.  I have noticed, just on anecdotal evidence, that Obama seems to do better in debates where he's standing, as opposed to debates where he's sitting (at least in the primaries/Saddleback too).  Therefore, all this might run counter to your conventional wisdom.

[Bacon King]

I  mean, McCain will almost certainly win, it's a townhall format.  If Obama flubs, it might be worth a couple points, but then the next debate is a format that Obama does better at.

Since the candidates won't be able to choose their own questions, they are extremely limited in being able to make decisive destruction of their opponent.  The questions are almost certainly be more folksy in nature than what a moderator would write.

We'll see.  I have noticed, just on anecdotal evidence, that Obama seems to do better in debates where he's standing, as opposed to debates where he's sitting (at least in the primaries/Saddleback too).  Therefore, all this might run counter to your conventional wisdom.

You know, I never thought about that, Sam. It makes sense, too, with the notion that voters historically prefer the taller candidate.

[Zarn]

Irrelevent.

McCain will win 27-17. Obama will get a field goal, during garbage time.

Define win.

[perdedor]

Unless Obama blunders very badly, the debate will be irrelevant in the final result of the election.

[Keystone Phil]

Pretty much so I voted yes.

[Reaganfan]

If he doesn't do at the very least a tie, yeah...it's over.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Pretty much. McCain needs a convincing win. Any tie is an Obama win.

[Citizen James]

'win' is poorly defined in this case (and it isn't over 'til it's over), but McCain has an uphill battle ahead of him, and if he doesn't give a very good performance tonight his long odds become even longer.

[Reaganfan]

The problem is...McCain is more "real" than Obama. Obama has a perfect tall stance, a deep booming voice, and that instantly off-sets points, ala Kerry-Bush debate 2004.

[cinyc]

No.  It won't be over until it's projected on Election Night.

^^^^^^

But if Democrats want to assume it's over and not show up at the polls, most Republicans wouldn't have a problem with that.

[Bacon King]

The problem is...McCain is more "real" than Obama. Obama has a perfect tall stance, a deep booming voice, and that instantly off-sets points, ala Kerry-Bush debate 2004.

Huh?

Obama's voice could hardly be described as "booming"; in fact, his voice is actually kind of soft.

Also, you can't make any remarks about height comparisons in 2004 because the Bush campaign forced them to angle the cameras and/or let Bush stand on a box so that they appeared to be the same height at all times.

[Lief 🗽]

No.  It won't be over until it's projected on Election Night.

^^^^^^

But if Democrats want to assume it's over and not show up at the polls, most Republicans wouldn't have a problem with that.

Nah, we prefer to completely crush the Republicans instead.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I voted yes. This is the most favorable debate format for McCain. In particular, his good friend Tom Brokaw is moderating.

[opebo]

No, I won't count on anything untill election night.  Obama is a black, you see.

[The Ex-Factor]

No, I don't think we've had the October Surprise yet.

[J. J.]

McCain and Obama have two chances tonight:

1.  Connect with the American people.  If Obama comes off as "aloof," he has a problem.

2.  Really lay out the economic consideration and offer a plan.  McCain basically can't say "Don't worry, be happy."  He has to speak about toughness and look like he's talking about a crisis that only he can solve.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No, I won't count on anything untill election night.  Obama is a black, you see.

I really hate agreeing with Opie.......but I do.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Of course. Even if McCain wins, it's probably over. He would need Obama to deny the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, so to speak.