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Author Topic: Possible Republican contenders in 2012?  (Read 8410 times)
Kevin
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« on: October 07, 2008, 09:45:29 pm »
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With the current Presidential Election looking increasingly like an Obama victory, I was curious as to who everyone thinks will be the possible Republican Contenders in 2012?

I'm thinking

Governor Sarah Palin
Governor Bobby Jindal
Governor Charlie Crist
General David Petraeus
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Former Governor Tim Pawlenty
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani?
Senator John Thune
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2008, 12:06:59 am »

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81715.0

Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Jindal, Crist, Pawlenty, Sanford, and Thune seemed to be the most popular names when I phrased the question as "who would be regarded as the early frontrunners?".  Of course, that's a bit different from the question of who will actually run.

I expect that there will be a lot of speculation over the next two years about possible runs by Jindal and Palin, but I don't think either of them will run in 2012.  Palin would be better off first serving at least two full terms as governor of Alaska in order to help rehabilitate her public image re: the experience question.  And because of the timing of Louisiana gubernatorial elections, Jindal would have to simultaneously be campaigning for reelection as governor while running in Iowa and New Hampshire (unless he wants to bow out after one term....and I doubt he'd do that), so he'll probably wait until 2016 or later.

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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2008, 02:35:29 pm »
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I wish Rudy would run again. He's purchased joinrudy2012 already, so there's a possibility that he will again. He needs a new campaign team, that's for sure.

Romney and Huckabee definitely will run, and Pawlenty might throw his had in as  well if he is reelected in 2010. Palin might run, but I'd be surprised if she got anywhere after her messups during this cycle. I love Jindal but he's too far right for a lot of people to stomach. Huckabee and Romney will be the early frontrunners and will probably be the two that will get it. The GOP normally nominates the runnerup the next time around.
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2008, 02:49:57 pm »
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The Republican need some one like Rudy or Tom Ridge to run and win.
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Duke
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2008, 05:09:03 pm »
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The Republican need some one like Rudy or Tom Ridge to run and win.

I agree we need the moderate wing to come back, but right now it seems that all moderate Republicans are Democrats or Independents now. They are almost becoming extinct, as are the moderate Democrats like Bill Clinton when he was President. I really don't want my party to move down the road of populism, and that's what looks like is going to happen. I don't know where us economic conservatives will go. The Democrat Party certainly isn't for us, but if people like Huckabee or Palin take control of the party, the GOP won't be for us either.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2008, 05:16:55 pm »

Romney and Huckabee definitely will run, and Pawlenty might throw his had in as  well if he is reelected in 2010.

Pawlenty could certainly run for president even if he doesn't run for reelection in 2010.  In fact, not running for reelection would probably be a stronger sign that he intends to run for president.  He will have already served 2 terms as governor in 2010.  Why mess around with another run for governor, which would only marginally affect his presidential viability?  Why not just immediately start focusing on the run for president as his term winds down?

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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2008, 05:53:05 pm »
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Romney and Huckabee definitely will run, and Pawlenty might throw his had in as  well if he is reelected in 2010.

Pawlenty could certainly run for president even if he doesn't run for reelection in 2010.  In fact, not running for reelection would probably be a stronger sign that he intends to run for president.  He will have already served 2 terms as governor in 2010.  Why mess around with another run for governor, which would only marginally affect his presidential viability?  Why not just immediately start focusing on the run for president as his term winds down?



If he didn't seek reelection then that might be a sign. If he were to run again and lose, that might hurt his chances.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2008, 07:04:43 pm »

If he didn't seek reelection then that might be a sign. If he were to run again and lose, that might hurt his chances.

It wouldn't just hurt his chances.  He'd be finished.  It's hard to get taken seriously as a presidential candidate when you've lost your most recent statewide election.  Which is why, if he really wants to run for president in 2012, he shouldn't bother risking another race for governor.  Instead, he should pull a Mitt Romney, and spend the last two years of his term as governor taking actions designed to set himself up as a top tier presidential contender (of course, this shouldn't require as much flip-flopping as in the case of Romney).

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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2008, 07:21:26 pm »
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If he didn't seek reelection then that might be a sign. If he were to run again and lose, that might hurt his chances.

It wouldn't just hurt his chances.  He'd be finished.  It's hard to get taken seriously as a presidential candidate when you've lost your most recent statewide election.  Which is why, if he really wants to run for president in 2012, he shouldn't bother risking another race for governor.  Instead, he should pull a Mitt Romney, and spend the last two years of his term as governor taking actions designed to set himself up as a top tier presidential contender (of course, this shouldn't require as much flip-flopping as in the case of Romney).



How about General Petraeus, wouldn't he be considered a top-tier Presidential candidate also?
« Last Edit: October 08, 2008, 07:26:03 pm by Kevin »Logged



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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2008, 08:54:53 pm »
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The Republican need some one like Rudy or Tom Ridge to run and win.

I agree we need the moderate wing to come back, but right now it seems that all moderate Republicans are Democrats or Independents now. They are almost becoming extinct, as are the moderate Democrats like Bill Clinton when he was President. I really don't want my party to move down the road of populism, and that's what looks like is going to happen. I don't know where us economic conservatives will go. The Democrat Party certainly isn't for us, but if people like Huckabee or Palin take control of the party, the GOP won't be for us either.

Oh, no... don't you guys get it?  The problem here is that we aren't conservative enough.  We need to energize the base more and convince the Westboro Baptist Churches of the world that we hate fags and ragheads as much as they do.

We also need to work harder to make sure everyone knows that we aren't curious about anything... at all.  Damn it, we have our gut, and quick judgment to help us.  Intellectualism is for pussies.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2008, 08:57:05 pm by Supersoulty »Logged

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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2008, 08:32:21 pm »
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Those already listed like Huckabee, Pawlentee, Palin, ect. ect. are the most likely.  But personally, I am hoping that the moderate wing of the GOP comes back  with avengence and that they nominate someone like Senator Arlen Specter, former Senator Lincoln Chafee (even as a diehard Democrat I would seriously consider voting for this man who I really hated to see lose in 2006), or Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell.  But I doubt that the GOP nominating a moderate will happen anytime soon.  They will likely have to go through the political wilderness for a couple of decades before they decide to make such a move despite the fact that everyone can see what Bush's radical neo-Conservative philosophy has wrought.  There is no doubt that the GOP will win an election again some day.  I just hope that the Democrats win until they nominate someone who is sane.
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2008, 09:30:29 pm »
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It's not even close, it has to be Jindal.  Young, great resume, attractive, Washington outsider, great speaker, great story.  It's time to turn the page on Rudy, Romney, and the old guard. 

A Jindal/Pawlenty or Jindal/Thune ticket would be killer. I'm excited about it already as I think the messiah is going to be a one termer.  Socialism and Communism have been proven time and time again to not work - it won't work in America.

 

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2008, 10:28:04 pm »

It's not even close, it has to be Jindal.  Young, great resume, attractive, Washington outsider, great speaker, great story.

Again, do you really see Jindal giving up on the governorship of Louisiana after just one term in order to run for president (at the age of 41)?  It seems far more likely to me that he'll wait until 2016 or 2020.

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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2008, 03:44:12 pm »
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I'm imagining this election (08) as potentially similar to Blair in the UK in '97. In other words, tonnes of Republicans/Independents repent for the last eight years, or if you want to go back further, the broader conservatism of the past decades, by going for Obama. To that end, 2012 will be the last throw for the right wing of the GOP, before they realise in 2016 that they need to moderate to win, not unlike Cameron is in the UK now. So with all that in mind, one of the more lunatic southern Senators or Governors may throw their hat in the ring, but Romney won't because he's afraid of being creamed, Huckabee won't because he's a reasonable and smart guy and won't want it, Palin won't because she'll be laughed out of every gymnasium in Iowa she goes to by then.
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2008, 05:20:09 am »

So with all that in mind, one of the more lunatic southern Senators or Governors may throw their hat in the ring, but Romney won't because he's afraid of being creamed, Huckabee won't because he's a reasonable and smart guy and won't want it, Palin won't because she'll be laughed out of every gymnasium in Iowa she goes to by then.

Romney and Huckabee won't run because they think they'll lose?  No, I don't think so.  They clearly want to be president (especially Romney), and they've got nothing better on their plates, so I'm fairly confident that they'll both run.  If anything, the experience of the 2008 primaries shows how thoroughly unpredictable these outcomes can be.  So even if they were down on their own chances, there's some reason for hope.

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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2008, 03:25:46 pm »
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Representative Mike Pence. 
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2008, 06:52:19 pm »
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A few holdovers from 2008. Maybe an obscure governor somewhere. Thats the beauty of the American system, primaries allow for small bursts of inspiration just out of nowhere.
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2008, 05:54:53 pm »
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If he didn't seek reelection then that might be a sign. If he were to run again and lose, that might hurt his chances.

It wouldn't just hurt his chances.  He'd be finished.  It's hard to get taken seriously as a presidential candidate when you've lost your most recent statewide election.  Which is why, if he really wants to run for president in 2012, he shouldn't bother risking another race for governor.  Instead, he should pull a Mitt Romney, and spend the last two years of his term as governor taking actions designed to set himself up as a top tier presidential contender (of course, this shouldn't require as much flip-flopping as in the case of Romney).



How about General Petraeus, wouldn't he be considered a top-tier Presidential candidate also?

I had heard that from a friend of mine who's one of the chairmen for the Alabama GOP. He said if Obama wins, that he'll run for POTUS. I guess we'll see. I am completely open to it though. We don't have anything to lose
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2008, 05:56:55 pm »
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Romney and Huckabee definitely will run, and Pawlenty might throw his had in as  well if he is reelected in 2010.

Pawlenty could certainly run for president even if he doesn't run for reelection in 2010.  In fact, not running for reelection would probably be a stronger sign that he intends to run for president.  He will have already served 2 terms as governor in 2010.  Why mess around with another run for governor, which would only marginally affect his presidential viability?  Why not just immediately start focusing on the run for president as his term winds down?



Is Pawlenty not term limited?
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2008, 08:26:50 pm »
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I'd consider supporting Petraeus, depending on his social views.
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2008, 10:36:27 pm »
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I'm imagining this election (08) as potentially similar to Blair in the UK in '97. In other words, tonnes of Republicans/Independents repent for the last eight years, or if you want to go back further, the broader conservatism of the past decades, by going for Obama. To that end, 2012 will be the last throw for the right wing of the GOP, before they realise in 2016 that they need to moderate to win, not unlike Cameron is in the UK now. So with all that in mind, one of the more lunatic southern Senators or Governors may throw their hat in the ring, but Romney won't because he's afraid of being creamed, Huckabee won't because he's a reasonable and smart guy and won't want it, Palin won't because she'll be laughed out of every gymnasium in Iowa she goes to by then.

Of cause a lot of that is dependent upon multiple variables which may not turn out the way you envision.
A. Obama wins in 2008. Very Possible
B. Obama becomes the most successful President in the last 30 years. Unkown

Obama could become the worst President in history for all we know. There will be tax hikes in Obama's first year in office especially with such a large majority in Congress. That alone will rally conservatives. Plus suppose the economy doesn't recover or recovers very slowly and those same conservatives are able to paint Obama's taxes, especially on Capital formation, as the cause for the continued economic problems we could perhaps see a speedy recovery for the conservative movement.

Anything can happen. So it may be premature to predict the demise of Conservatism. 
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2008, 10:44:49 pm »
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As for the original question I see the following Candidates running in 2012. Romney, Huckabee, Thune, Palin, Jindal, and maybe some unknown Govenor or Senator from the Center or left of the Party.

The Following I see as the Frontrunners in the beginning
"I was runner up"
    -Romney and Huckabee fight over this title one got more votes the other more delegates

"I was Veep"
    -This may be Sarah Palin's only claim to front runner status particulary if McCain/Palin goes down to defeat. But its a weak claim since losing Veep Candidates rarely fet nominate or elected. Mondale lost a landslide in 84. The last time that worked was FDR in 1932 but that was 12 years after his failed Veep run.

Of course someone else might break through and win the nomination.
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2008, 04:59:07 pm »
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Newt Gingrich Maybe? I've heard he's considering a run.
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2008, 05:07:08 pm »
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The top five contenders out of my ass are: Romney, Jindal, Crist, DeMint, and Rossi.
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2008, 05:42:32 pm »
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What about Mitch Daniels and John Ensign?
Sure, they are longshots but Ensign is a western popular, young and conservative senator (has reelection in 2012 but Nevada law might allow him to run also for the senate, don't know), and if Daniels win his reelection campaign handily he will be a rather popular governor of a swing state in an important area.
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