Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 17, 2017, 04:51:34 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  What is the largest come from behing Presidential victory?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: What is the largest come from behing Presidential victory?  (Read 9567 times)
oneworldunited
Newbie
*
Posts: 1
View Profile
« on: October 08, 2008, 01:50:27 pm »
Ignore

I am just curious, what is the largest come from behind victory in a presidential election?  Using polling data if McCain is behind by 11 points with 28 days to go, is it even possible for him to still win?  Has anyone ever come back from such a deficit with so few days to go?

thanks,
Bobby
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 43470
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2008, 02:26:19 pm »
Ignore

In 2000, Gore was trailing by 13 in late October and still managed to win the Election.

Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16735


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2008, 02:28:23 pm »
Ignore

Gallup's tracker sucked in the past.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13581
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2008, 05:36:09 pm »
Ignore

Now all John McCain needs is a last minute revelation that Obama has a DUI in his past.
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34115
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2008, 05:54:56 pm »
Ignore

Are there any running polling averages, along the lines of RCP or pollster.com, for presidential elections before 2004?  I mean, yes, you can find them for individual pollsters like Gallup, but what about running averages of all the polls?

Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
12th Doctor
supersoulty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20666
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2008, 06:31:55 pm »
Ignore

Its not a "victory" but in August 1976, Ford trailed Carter in the polls by 32 points.  On election day, he only trailed by 2.
Logged

Northam for Governor '17
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30480
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2008, 03:55:07 pm »
Ignore

Probably Truman in '48.
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5378


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2008, 06:31:55 pm »
Ignore

Im pretty sure Hubert Humpherey was behind by around 10 at this time in 1968 and pulled even by election day. 
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7491
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2008, 09:19:40 pm »
Ignore

In 2000, Gore was trailing by 13 in late October and still managed to win the Election.

I garuntee you Gore wasn't really trailing by 13. three is more like it. Polling was exceptionally erratic that year.
Logged

DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18687
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2008, 07:56:34 pm »
Ignore

Now all John McCain needs is a last minute revelation that Obama has a DUI in his past.
Whitey tape will do just fine Wink
Logged

Gov. Christopher J. Christie
Sensei
senseiofj324
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11607
Panama


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -5.57

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2008, 07:59:15 pm »
Ignore

Truman '48 more than likely
Logged

razze
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 292
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2017, 06:20:56 pm »
Ignore

Trump.
Logged

Fla Gov 2018: Gwen Graham
Fla CFO 2018: Jeremy Ring
Fla SD40 2017: Annette Taddeo
Fla HD116 2017: Gabriela Mayaudon

Fla Sen 2018: Bill Nelson
Fla's 15th 2018: Andrew Learned
Fla's 18th 2018: Pam Keith
Fla's 27th 2018: Jose Javier Rodriguez or Kristen Rosen Gonzalez
JustinTimeCuber
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2308
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2017, 02:23:32 pm »
Ignore

Bump.
ftfy
Logged

Rubik's Cube speedsolver (world rank: 496, US rank: 121 as of 7/21)

JustinTimeCuber, Labor-MO

S. Delegate, March - July 2017
Dean of the CoD, June - July 2017
Acting Southern Speaker, June - July 2017

Join the campaign!

Twitter
Lincoln Speaker Lok1999
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1992
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2017, 05:02:12 pm »
Ignore

Truman
Logged

A Liberal LGBT in one of the most pro LGBT cities in the country.

The Room is by far, hands down the best worst film ever made.
Peebs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6100
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -6.43

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2017, 07:17:23 am »
Ignore

The ones that began with "Trum".
Logged


President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4485
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2017, 01:35:32 pm »
Ignore

Not a few days but Dukakis led Poppy Bush in August 1988 by 17 points or so and managed to lose the election by eight points.

Not a win, but noteworthy: Jimmy Carter led Gerald Ford in the polls by 30 points in August 1976. By election day, it was dead heat and Carter only barely won the race by two points.
Logged

Socially liberal, economically moderate, fiscally lean conservative.

Favorite president: Lyndon B. Johnson
Best president we never had: Nelson Rockefeller

Old Habits Die Hard
omegascarlet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2642


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2017, 04:31:36 pm »
Ignore

Truman
Bush senior

Lincoln was probably doing pretty bad before the Union took Atlanta.

Ford almost counts, as has been mentioned.
Logged
Tinder Time with Tilden
Spark498
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2935
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.22

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2017, 10:43:26 pm »
Ignore

Truman & Trump
Logged





2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21051


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2017, 11:27:57 pm »
Ignore

Trump was trailing by a good 6, 7, or 8 points with two weeks to go.
Logged

Old Habits Die Hard
omegascarlet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2642


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2017, 09:17:03 am »
Ignore

Trump was trailing by a good 6, 7, or 8 points with two weeks to go.

That's still only improving 6 points at most. Donnie lost the pv by 2, and was never down much more than 10 points. Considering the natural fluctuations in the campaign, I think an average of -6 is fair.

Bush Sr. improved by 24 points.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines