New CA poll...

[Gustaf]

A new CA poll shows Bush trailing a generic Democrat by 17 points, 37-54. Now, before you start ahouting at me, my point here is a new one. Other polls have been indicating that CA could be very close, but if this is true Bush would need a landslide to carry it. That IS interesting and relevant information.

[dazzleman]

I really don't expect Bush to carry California.

It would be good if he could give the Democrats a good fight there and force them to commit resources to hold it, since they can't possibly win without it.

[© tweed]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

[© tweed]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

[DarthKosh]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

[© tweed]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Good point...if it's all from San Francisco, it's bad for the Dems, and if it's all from the desert, it's good for the Dems.

[DarthKosh]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

[agcatter]

I really don't think California is in play.  If it is then Bush wins big and that isn't going to happen.  No, California is not going to be in play any more than a state like Indiana is going to be in play for Democrats.  Demographics.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

[DarthKosh]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

Could have happened.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

Could have happened.

yeah..if the people conducting the poll were a bunch of incompetent amateurs...

[Esteban Manuel]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

If is a true difference of 4% because ussually 4% inside MoE, that's mean TOS

[Esteban Manuel]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

I second that.

Wich poll is most acutte? It's a problem of 3 var:

1. The dispertion of vote in each sample, the most the dispertion the most the MoE
2. The size of the sample itself, the most the sample the minus the MoE
3. And finally, as Gustaf remember us, the technical quality of the poll itself, especially the questions, sample selection and display.

End of the Resumé, so if someone has the features (and dates) of both polls we can answer the question of wich's most accute.

[PD]

I don't know where you got that poll.

[© tweed]

I don't know where you got that poll.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[PD]

I don't know where you got that poll.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

Oh well that explains it. That site is liberal-leaning.

[Nation]

From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal?

[© tweed]

From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal?

Who knows.  Whenever PD sees a poll placing the Republicans behind the Dems, he discredits the site as 'liberal'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The man who runs dcpoliticalreport is a Democrat, but the site is objective and the facts are free from bias.